The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Festival Predictions - Best Actor

Pre-Festival Predictions
Robert DeNiro "The Irishman"
Leonardo DiCaprio "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Taron Egerton "Rocketman"
Tom Hanks "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood"
Eddie Murphy "Dolemite is My Name"

Other Contenders - Joaquin Phoenix "Joker", Antonio Banderas "Pain & Glory", Brad Pitt "Ad Astra", Christian Bale "Ford v. Ferrari", Matt Damon "Ford v. Ferrari", Hugh Bonneville "Downton Abbey", Ansel Elgort "The Goldfinch", Adam Driver "Marriage Story", Jonathan Pryce "The Two Popes", Ian McKellen "The Good Liar", Daniel Kaluuya "Queen & Slim", Mark Ruffalo "Untitled Todd Haynes Project", Jimmie Falls "The Last Black Man in San Francisco", Robert Downey Jr. "Avengers: Endgame", Robert Pattinson "The Lighthouse", August Diehl "A Hidden Life", Timothee Chalamet "The King", Edward Norton "Motherless Brooklyn", Jamie Bell "Skin", Daniel Craig "Knives Out", Will Smith "Gemini Man", Dean-Charles Chapman "1917", Lucas Hedges "Waves", John Lithgow "Bombshell"

Commentary - We already know that Taron Egerton and Leonardo DiCaprio are going to be huge contenders throughout the season. But there are still plenty of unknowns. Poor Tom Hanks always seems to miss the cut recently no matter how many great performances he turns out. I am still banking on his role as Mr. Rogers as the one that breaks through. The first trailer for Dolemite is My Name doesn't make it look like a huge Oscar contender, expect for what is sure to be a dynamic performance from Eddie Murphy in yet another comeback. Finally, Robert DeNiro in The Irishman feels like Oscar gold. Beyond those five, Joaquin Phoenix could be the surprise contender of the year, Antonio Banderas has never been better, Brad Pitt could get double nods, the Ford v. Ferrari pair are both previous Oscar winners (who is supporting or lead? Both in one category?), and previous nominees like Adam Driver, Ian McKellen, Daniel Kaluuya, Mark Ruffalo, Robert Downey Jr., Lucas Hedges, Timothee Chalamet, Will Smith, and Edward Norton are all looking for another nomination. At the same time folks like Jonathan Pryce, Robert Pattinson, Dean-Charles Chapman, Jimmie Falls, and Hugh Bonneville are all looking for their first nomination.