Best Variety Talk Series
Will Win - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Should Win - Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Could Win - Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Commentary - We all remember the Daily Show streak. Voters love to repeat, and even though there are some fantastic competitors, I will keep picking Last Week Tonight until it loses.
Best Variety Sketch Series
Will Win - Saturday Night Live
Should Win - Documentary Now
Could Win - Documentary Now
Commentary - Saturday Night Live has won this two years in a row, but Documentary Now did very well in nominations, and both Inside Amy Schumer and Key and Peele beat SNL in the past. SNL is the front runner, but it could be vulnerable.
Best Variety Special (Live)
Will Win - Live in Front of a Studio Audience: Norman Lear's All in the Family and The Jeffersons
Should Win - The Oscars
Could Win - The Oscars or The Tony Awards
Commentary - The Oscars or The Tonys could win here, which they have done in the past. But I think that the novelty of ABC's Live in Front of a Studio Audience, and the nostalgia or reenacting two classic shows will sway more voters to pick it.
Best Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
Will Win - Homecoming: A Film by Beyonce
Should Win - Homecoming or Nanette
Could Win - Hannah Gadsby: Nanette or Carpool Karaoke: When Corden Met McCartney Live from Liverpool
Commentary - So which one wins: The stand-up special or the musical phenomenon. Last year, the stand up special (Dave Chappelle) won out. This year, I am banking on the musical phenomenon, which was the bigger and bolder of the two. Although, it must be said, Emmy voters cannot go wrong with either. Also, watch out for James Corden, who won two years in a row before last year.