The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Festival Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

Pre-Festival Predictions
Annette Bening "The Report"
Nicole Kidman "The Goldfinch"
Margot Robbie "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Maggie Smith "Downton Abbey"
Emma Watson "Little Women"

Other Contenders - Meryl Streep "Little Woman", Laura Dern "Little Women", Eliza Scanlen "Little Woman", Florence Pugh "Little Women", Laura Dern "Marriage Story", Janelle Monae "Harriet", Sarah Paulson "The Goldfinch", Shuzhen Zhou "The Farewell", Scarlett Johansson "Jojo Rabbit", Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie "Jojo Rabbit" Anna Paquin "The Irishman", Jennifer Hudson "Cats", Judi Dench "Cats", Rebel Wilson "Cats", Anne Hathaway "Untitled Todd Haynes Project", Catherine Deneuve "The Truth", Joanna Froggatt "Downton Abbey", Tichina Arnold "The Last Black Man in San Francisco", Emma Thompson "Late Night", Ruth Negga "Ad Astra", Kristin Wiig "Where'd You Go Bernadette?", Elisabeth Moss "Us", Catriona Balfe "Ford v. Ferrari", Imelda Staunton "Downton Abbey", Connie Britton "Untitled Roger Ailes Project", Zazie Beetz "Lucy in the Sky", Ellen Burstyn "Lucy in the Sky", Elizabeth McGovern "Downton Abbey", Carrie Fisher "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker"

Commentary - The only change I have made since my first predictions is switching out Emma Watson for Meryl Streep. I know that sounds crazy, but I feel like Watson will have more material, and that Streep has a better shot in Actress for Soderbergh's The Laundromat. The other four, Robbie, Kidman, Bening, and Smith remain. Beyond that I think the other Little Women cast members have a great shot. The trailer was promising, but it will take a viewing to determine which of the cast members rises to the top. My money is on Watson, but it could be Streep, Dern, Pugh, or Scanlen. I think Sarah Paulson could join Kidman, breakout Shuzhen Zhou could charm, Anna Paquin could rise in a male-heavy cast, the Jojo Rabbit duo could rise, as could the Cats ensemble, although the trailer has moved them further down my list. I also think the Downton folks, besides Smith could breakthrough, particularly Joanna Froggatt, who always did well with Emmy voters. Add to the list Thompson, Negga, Wiig, Balfe, Moss, Britton, Burstyn, Beetz, Deneuve, Arnold, and the late great Carrie Fisher will be on voters' minds.