Saturday, November 12, 2016

The Oscar Narrative: Post Festival Predictions - Best Picture

Post Festival Predictions
La La Land
Live By Night
Manchester By the Sea

Other Contenders - Jackie, Nocturnal Animals, 20th Century Women, Hacksaw Ridge, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hidden Figures, Rules Don't Apply, Passengers, Miss Sloane, The 13th, The Jungle Book, Hell or High Water, The Comedian, Billy Lynn's Long Halfitme Walk, Moana, Finding Dory, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Zootopia, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Comedian, Bleed for This, The Birth of a Nation, Gold, Collateral Beauty, Patriot's Day, The Lobster, Love and Friendship, Queen of Katwe, The Founder, I Daniel Blake, American Honey, Everybody Wants Some!!, Morris From America, The Girl on the Train, Deepwater Horizon, Certain Women, Elle, Eye in the Sky, Maggie's Plan, Cafe Society

Other Contenders - Allied is set to have a big weekend, and as the reviews pour in, it is looking like this year's science fiction favorite. After years of ignoring genre films, the Academy has upped its game lately with nominations and wins for films like Gravity, The Martian, Mad Max, etc. Allied looks set to continue their streak. La La Land is the front runner right now, with indie favorites Manchester By the Sea and Moonlight right behind it. While full reviews are still embargoed, early word is that Fences is magnificent, especially its cast. Expect it to be the actors favorite this year. Silence and Live By Night are still upcoming but both have the pedigrees to remain on this list. Loving is slipping, and has continued to slip as new films have hit the circuit. It is still tentatively in there, but don't be surprised if its gets missed on the final list. Lion has good reviews, Weinstein in its pocket, and is pure Oscar bait. Finally, Sully is a solid, well-acted film that did incredibly well at the box office, and has the potent combination of Tom Hanks and Clint Eastwood. As films come and go, this well-liked favorite will play well with the older members of the Academy, who still have a lot of voting power despite recent changes. Jackie and Nocturnal Animals are stylish and will have a lot of support, although I'm sure if they will get in the top category. 20th Century Women is going to get some love, particularly for its actors, but might be too light for Best Picture. Same for Florence Foster Jenkins, although many of us doubted Frears' last one Philomena at our own peril. Hidden Figures looks strong, but until we get some reviews I am holding my reservations. Rules Don't Apply looks like a mixed bag, as does Miss Sloane, and Passengers' buzz is dead as a doorknob (although I still think it might surprise). Hell or High Water, Bleed for This, The Lobster, Love and Friendship, I, Daniel Blake, American Honey, Everybody Wants Some!!, Elle, Certain Women, Maggie's Play, and Morris From America are the small indies hoping to breakthrough. Some decent or potentially decent mid-range films like Deepwater Horizon, The Founder, Patriot's Day, The Comedian, The Girl on the Train, and Cafe Society are possibilities as well. And finally, don't discount the big guys, even though it is easy to do. Rogue One, The Jungle Book, Finding Dory, Moana, and Zootopia could surprise.

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