Best Lead Actor in a Musical
Will Win - Robert Fairchild "An American In Paris"
Could Win - Michael Cerveris "Fun Home" or Brian d'Arcy James "Something Rotten!"
Commentary - In a close race, I am favoring the guy that keeps racking up precursor awards. Brian d'Arcy James could finally win a Tony on this third try for Something Rotten! The battle for Best Musical is between Fun Home and An American in Paris, which seems to also pi Michael Cerveris vs. Robert Fairchild in a close race. But Fairchild has won the Drama Desk and the Outer Critics Circle, and is clearly a well-liked new talent on the stage. I think he wins in a close race.
Best Lead Actress in a Musical
Will Win - Kristin Chenoweth "On the Twentieth Century"
Could Win - Kelli O'Hara "The King and I" or Chita Rivera "The Visit"
Commentary - I am going with same theory here that I am going with in the Actor category. This is a really tight race. Chita Rivera won the coveted Drama League Distinguished Performance Award, and another Tony is not out of the question. But I think this year's race is between two beloved stage veterans, both of whom I admire a great deal. I would love to see Kelli O'Hara finally win a Tony after six nominations and zero wins. But the precursors suggest that host, and previous winner Kristin Chenoweth is going to win this for her well-received role in the revival of On the Twentieth Century. Chenoweth is one of my favorite artists working today who has managed to cross all mediums with ease and success, and another Tony would be well-deserved.