Best Lead Actor in a Play
Will Win - Alex Sharp "The Curious Case of the Dog in the Night-Time"
Could Win - Steven Boyer "Hand to God" or Bradley Cooper "The Elephant Man"
Commentary - Three first time nominees battle it out for the prize. Steven Boyer got a lot of love for Hand to God, but it probably a safe third place. That leaves two. Bradley Cooper has gone from young hotshot to five-time Oscar nominated and well-respected actor in a matter of years. His popularity and high-profile appearance could easily land him the Tony. It doesn't hurt that he has received nothing but raves for this role in the revival of The Elephant Man. But they don't always go for the popular screen actor (see Tom Hanks). Alex Sharp is a young talent who apparently knocked it out of the park in the front runner for Best Play. He has some stiff competition, but I think he wins his first Tony.
Best Lead Actress in a Play
Will Win - Helen Mirren "The Audience"
Could Win - Carey Mulligan "Skylight" or Elisabeth Moss "The Heidi Chronicles"
Commentary - You know how I was just saying they don't always go for the popular screen actor? Well in this category, voters don't have much of a choice but to do just that. Carey Mulligan and Elisabeth are great dark horses (both Emmy/Oscar nominees), but this award belongs to Helen Mirren. She apparently stole the show in The Audience is a legend, and has never won a Tony Award. I think she finally wins the triple crown of acting.