Best Director of a Play
Will Win - Marianne Elliott "The Curious Case of the Dog in the Night-Time"
Could Win - Stephen Daldry "Skylight" or Jeremy Herrin "Wolf Hall Parts 1 and 2"
Commentary - The Curious Case of the Dog in the Night-Time is going to rack up a lot of Tonys come June 7th, and its reviews highlight its creativity, its unique set up, and its powerful message. So Marianne Elliot should be a shoo-in, and honestly, I would be kind of surprised if she were snubbed. But Wolf Hall has a lot of buzz with its TV and theater releases, and most importantly, Stephen Daldry is lurking around the corner. He is as well-liked by the American Theater Wing as he is by the AMPAS, and has won both of the Tony Awards he was nominated for. Plus, Skylight is a hit and one of the three plays that could win the revival category. I am going with Elliott, but I will not be shocked if Daldry ends up accepting his Third Tony.
Best Director of a Musical
Will Win - Sam Gold "Fun Home"
Could Win - Christopher Wheeldon "An American in Paris" or Casey Nicholaw "Something Rotten!"
Commentary - This one is a bit trickier than it looks on the surface. So far An American in Paris has swept the precursors for Best Musical, and I am definitely leaning towards it for the win come Tony night. But judging by the reviews and the buzz, Fun Home is a bit quirkier, and a bit more ingenious in its execution. It makes me think that for these top awards there is going to be a split, and you will be wondering what will win up until the name is revealed (sort of like the Matlida and Kinky Boots year). So I am predicting the split, and going with Sam Gold to win here, while still losing the top prize to An American in Paris. Of course, we'll have to wait and see.