Friday, October 17, 2014

The Oscar Narrative: First Golden Globe Predictions - Best Actor in a Drama

First Golden Globe Predictions
Steve Carell "Foxcatcher"
Benedict Cumberbatch "The Imitation Game"
Oscar Isaac "A Most Violent Year"
Eddie Redmayne "The Theory of Everything"
Channing Tatum "Foxcatcher"

Other Contenders - Timothy Spall "Mr. Turner", David Oyelowo "Selma", Bradley Cooper "American Sniper", Jack O'Connell "Unbroken", Brad Pitt "Fury", Mark Wahlberg "The Gambler", Christoph Waltz "Big Eyes", Ben Affleck "Gone Girl", Miles Teller "Whiplash", Ansel Elgort "The Fault in Our Stars", Matthew McConaughey "Interstellar", Kevin Costner "Black or White", Kevin Costner "Draft Day", Martin Freeman "The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies", Philip Seymour Hoffman "A Most Wanted Man", James Franco "True Story", Jonah Hill "True Story", Ellar Coltrane "Boyhood", Jake Gyllenhaal "Nightcrawler", Russell Crowe "Noah", Robert Downey Jr. "The Judge", Brendan Gleeson "Cavalry", Tommy Lee Jones "The Homesman"

Commentary - This category, like its Comedy/Musical counterpart is brutal, just like the Best Actor race at every awards ceremony will be this season. On the outside looking in are huge stars (something Globe voters love) including Brad Pitt for Fury (less than stellar reviews have dampened its overall awards chances), Mark Wahlberg (The Gambler is a big question mark), Kevin Costner (Two roles, neither standing out at the moment), Bradley Cooper (right on the verge if American Sniper turns out to be as good as it looks), Matthew McConaughey (science fiction and acting don't always go hand in hand), Ben Affleck (Gone Girl all about Fincher and Pike?), Robert Downey Jr for The Judge (once again mixed reviews), Russell Crowe (Will enough people come back to Noah?), Christoph Waltz (Tim Burton has been in a bit of a funk), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler too dark?), and the late great Philip Seymour Hoffman (will it maintain its low buzz enough to keep him on the radar). That is how brutal this is, and that doesn't even include Timothy Spall's incredibly buzzed turn in Mr. Turner, David Oyelowo's potentially breakthrough performance as Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in Selma, or newcomers Miles Teller, Ansel Elgort, and Jack O'Connell all of whom are on the rise. So now let's get to the actual predictions. Oscar Isaac might have missed the mark with the Academy, but let's remind ourselves that Globe voters actually saw the brilliance in his performance in Inside Llewyn Davis and gave a well-deserved nod. I have huge hopes for A Most Violent Year, and now that he is already on their radar, he should not be ignored. There are two British guys that are taking the Oscar circuit by storm. Benedict Cumberbatch is now an Emmy-award winning actor whose performance as Alan Turing in The Imitation Game is carrying the film to Oscar-buzz heaven. Eddie Redmayne is apparently stellar as Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, and is a young actor whose career is on the rise. Both are big threats for both the Oscar and the Golden Globe. Finally, I think a duo will make the cut. We all know that Steve Carell is going to be a tough competitor here, and probably the front runner. But let's remember that the Globe voters love their stars. I think that superstar Channing Tatum, who gets to really show off his talents up against Carell in Foxcatcher, will join his co-star in the race.

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