Saturday, October 11, 2014

The Oscar Narrative: First Golden Globe Predictions - Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical

First Golden Globe Predictions
Emily Blunt "Into the Woods"
Angelina Jolie "Maleficent"
Melissa McCarthy "St. Vincent"
Helen Mirren "The Hundred-Foot Journey"
Julianne Moore "Maps to the Stars"

Other Contenders - Kristen Wiig "The Skeleton Twins", Emma Stone "Magic in the Moonlight", Keira Knightley "Begin Again",  Diane Keaton "And So It Goes", Tina Fey "This is Where I Leave You", Jenny Slate "Obvious Child", Quvenzhane Wallis "Annie", Imelda Staunton "Pride", Rosario Dawson "Top Five", Melissa McCarthy "Tammy", Nia Long "Tyler Perry's The Single Moms Club", Wendi McLendon-Covey "Tyler Perry's The Single Moms Club", Cameron Diaz "The Other Woman", Leslie Mann "The Other Woman", Elizabeth Banks "Walk of Shame", Charlize Theron "A Million Ways to Die in the West", Nicole Kidman "Paddington"

Commentary - Like most years, we have to stretch to define Comedy/Musical. For example, despite being completely dramatic, and not a musical, it looks like Maleficent will compete in Comedy/Musical, probably just to get Angelina Jolie a nomination. And it most likely will work. Beyond that, it does look like most of the contenders will actually fit the mold. Emily Blunt has been promoted to lead while Streep and Kendrick will be supporting. Even if Into the Woods is a flop, it will probably be a hit with the HFPA, who love musicals (remember Burlesque). Julianne Moore came running back into the Oscar race with Still Alice, but she will still get a campaign for the Globes for Maps to the Stars, even if they shunned the Oscar push. I expect her darkly comedic performance here to be a hit with Globe voters. The final two slots could be interesting. Kristen Wiig could get in for The Skeleton Twins, although the film might be too small (compared to her first nod for Bridemaids which was a smash). Emma Stone, Diane Keaton, Tina Fey, Cameron Diaz, Leslie Man, Charlize Theron, are all award-winning movie stars who have big roles this year. They also all happen to be in films that were pretty much slammed by critics. But stars are favorites for the HFPA, so don't be surprised if one slips in based on name recognition alone. Imelda Stauton is most likely supporting, but could go lead here if Pride takes off. Quvenzhane Wallis could be a slam-dunk in Annie, another musical (they love musicals, it is worth repeating!), Rosario Dawson is apparently radiant in Top Five, and Jenny Slate and Keira Knightley could be indie breakthroughs. But I think that Helen Mirren and Melissa McCarthy will pull those last two slots. St. Vincent looks to be a comedy hit with both critics and audiences, and McCarthy is now a glorified Oscar-nominated, Emmy-winning star who apparently holds her own up against Bill Murray (although she too could go supporting). Helen Mirren has won several Globes and been nominated dozens of times over the years in both film and television. Her light and frothy performance in Hundred-Foot Journey should tame Globes voters.

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