Monday, January 24, 2011

State of the Race: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Other Possibilities: The Town, Blue Valentine, Another Year, The Way Back, Shutter Island
Commentary: I think that 9 of these 10 are set. The question is, do they go for The Town or Winter’s Bone? I think that The Town won big with the PGA nod, but my guess is that enough of a minority will put Winter’s Bone in the top five that it squeezes out the bigger movie for the final slot.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky “Black Swan”
David O. Russell “The Fighter”
Christopher Nolan “Inception”
Tom Hooper “The King’s Speech”
David Fincher “The Social Network”
Other Possibilities: Joel and Ethan Coen “True Grit”, Danny Boyle “127 Hours”, Debra Granik “Winter’s Bone”, Lisa Cholodenko “The Kids Are All Right”, Mike Leigh “Another Year”
Commentary: I am going with the 5 DGA nods, knowing that there is a great possibility that the Coens sneak in. But my guess is that the Academy will love The Fighter more.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges “True Grit”
Robert Duvall
Jesse Eisenberg “The Social Network”
Colin Firth “The King’s Speech”
James Franco “127 Hours’
Other Possibilities: Javier Bardem “Biutiful”, Mark Wahlberg “The Fighter”, Ryan Gosling “Blue Valentine”, Leonardo Dicaprio “Inception” or “Shutter Island”
Commentary: While I’m still on the fence about Duvall, I am going to go with him over the other contenders simply because he is Robert Duvall.

Best Actress
Annette Bening “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman “Black Swan”
Hailee Steinfeld “True Grit”
Other Possibilities: Michelle Williams “Blue Valentine”, Hilary Swank “Conviction”, Julianne Moore “The Kids Are All Right”, Leslie Manville “Another Year”, Noomi Rapace “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Commentary: This one is a tricky pick, as I think there are four slots filled, and at least four women who could fill the fifth one. I am going with a little bit of surprise, and say that the Academy recognizes that Hailee Steinfeld is in fact the lead, and nominates her as such. However this is a risky pick, as Williams, Swank, and Moore are all possibilities, and none of them have category confusion.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield “The Social Network”
Jeremy Renner “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush “The King’s Speech”
Other Possibilities: John Hawkes “Winter’s Bone”, Matt Damon “True Grit”, Sam Rockwell “Conviction”, Michael Douglas “Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps”
Commentary: I say watch out for Hawkes, but outside of him, I don’t see any huge surprises. Although I would not rule out Matt Damon.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter “The King’s Speech”
Mila Kunis “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo “The Fighter”
Jacki Weaver “Animal Kingdom”
Other Possibilities: Hailee Steinfeld “True Grit”, Leslie Manville “Another Year”, Barbara Hershey “Black Swan”, Miranda Richardson “Made in Dagenham”
Commentary: Well, since I’m going with Steinfeld as lead, that means that Jacki Weaver can hopefully come back into this race and get the Oscar nod she so richly deserves.

The rest simply have my predictions.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy "127 Hours"
Aaron Sorkin "The Social Network"
Michael Ardnt "Toy Story 3"
Joel and Ethan Coen "True Grit"
Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini "Winter's Bone"
Other Possibilities - Ben Affleck, Peter Craig and Aaron Stockard "The Town", Robert Harris and Roman Polanski "The Ghost Writer", Glenn Ficara and John Requa "I Love You, Phillip Morris"

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John J. McLaughlin "Black Swan"
Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy "The Fighter"
Christopher Nolan "Inception"
Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko "The Kids Are All Right"
David Seidler "The King's Speech"
Other Possibilities - Mike Leigh "Another Year", Nicole Holofcener "Please Give", Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis, Cami Delavigne "Blue Valentine"

Best Animated Film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Other Possibilities - Tangled, Despicable Me, Megamind

Best Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Waiting for 'Superman'
Other Possibilites - The Tillman Story, Client 9, Precious Life, Waste Land, Enemies of the People

Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful (Mexico)
In Another World (Denmark:
Incendies (Canada)
Life, Above All (South Africa)
Outside the Law (Algeria)
Other Possibilites - Dogtooth (Greece), Even the Rain (Spain), Confessions (Japan), Simple Simon (Sweden)

Best Original Score
Danny Elfman "Alice in Wonderland"
John Powell "How to Train Your Dragon"
Hans Zimmer "Inception"
Alexandre Desplat "The Kings's Speech"
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross "The Social Network"
Other Possibilties - A.R. Rahman "127 Hours", Rachel Portman "Never Let Me Go", Alexandre Desplat "The Ghost Writer" or "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I"

Best Original Song
"If I Rise" from "127 Hours"
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me Yet" from "Burlesque"
"I See the Light" from "Tangled"
"We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3"
"Shine" from "Waiting for Superman"
Other Possibilities - "Coming Home" form "Country Strong", "Country Strong" from "Country Strong", "Bound to You" from "Burlesque",

Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit
Other Possibilities - Black Swan, Get Low, Robin Hood, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, TRON Legacy

Best Cinematography
Black Swan
The King's Speech
True Grit
The Social Network
Other Possibilities - 127 Hours, Shutter Island, TRON Legacy, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, Alice in Wonderland, The Way Back

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Other Possibilities - Made in Dagenham, Burlesque, The Way Back, Robin Hood, The Fighter

Best Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Other Possibilties - Shutter Island, 127 Hours, The Town, True Grit

Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
True Grit
The Wolfman
Other Possibilities - Barney's Version, The Fighter, The Way Back, Jonah Hex,

Best Sound Editing
Black Swan
Toy Story 3
TRON Legacy
True Grit
Other Possibilties - Shutter Island, 127 Hours, How to Train Your Dragon, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, Unstoppable, Salt, The Town

Best Sound Mixing
Black Swan
The Social Network
TRON Legacy
True Grit
Other Possibilities - 127 Hours, Shutter Island, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Toy Story 3, How to Train Your Dragon

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
Iron Man 2
TRON Legacy
Other Possibilities - Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, Hereafter

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