Yorgos Lanthimos "Bugonia"
Chloe Zhao "Hamnet"
Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"
Joachim Trier "Sentimental Value"
Ryan Coogler "Sinners"
Other Contenders - Noah Baumbach "Jay Kelly", Hikari "Rental Family", Luca Guadagino "After the Hunt", Bradley Cooper "Is This Thing On?", Benny Safdie "The Smashing Machine", Josh Safdie "Marty Supreme", James Cameron "Avatar: Fire and Ash", Kathryn Bigelow "A House of Dynamite", Scott Cooper "Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere", Jafar Panahi "It Was Just an Accident", Guillermo Del Toro "Frankenstein", Edward Berger "Ballad of the Small Player", Jon M. Chu "Wicked: For Good", Kleber Mendonça Filho "The Secret Agent", Joseph Kosinski "F1: The Movie", Richard Linklater "Nouvelle Vague", Richard Linklater "Blue Moon", Paul Greengrass "The Lost Bus", Mona Fastvold "Ann Lee", Lynne Ramsay "Die My Love", James L. Brooks "Ella McCay" Taika Waititi "Klara and the Sun", Ronan Day-Lewis "Anemone", Danny Boyle "28 Years Later", James Griffiths "The Ballad of Wallis Island", Steven Soderberg "Black Bag", Danny Philippou and Michael Philippou "Bring Her Back", Carson Lund "Eephus", Andrew DeYoung "Friendship", Mike Flanagan "The Life of Chuck", Celine Song "Materialists", Rithy Panh "Meeting with Pol Pot", Bong Joon Ho "Mickey 17", Roshan Sethi "A Nice Indian Boy", Rungano Nyoni "On Becoming a Guinea Fowl", Lawrence Lamont "One of Them Days", Wes Anderson "The Phoenician Scheme", Eva Victor "Sorry, Baby", Jake Schreier "Thunderbolts*", Alex Garland and Ray Mendoza "Warfare", Andrew Ahn "The Wedding Banquet"
Commentary - Whew, this one is going to be a doozy. We know that Sentimental Value is going to do well, and Trier fits with the kind of director that voters love. I think that Sinners is clever and bold enough to also entice this unique group, and earn Ryan Coogler his first, well overdue, Oscar nod for directing. Paul Thomas Anderson's latest looks like it could get him back in the lineup, as could Yorgos Lanthimos' latest Bugonia. Chloe Zhao, a winner previously, hopes to also get back in the race with her intriguing Hamnet. But this is one that is set to change a lot. You have Noah Baumbach right there, but he missed for Marriage Story, his most successful Oscar film to date. Hikari could have a breakthrough for Rental Family and Jafar Panahi won the Palme D'or this year. The Safdie Brothers are hoping to really breakthrough, as its the long overdue Scott Cooper and Bradley Cooper (no relation, I think). You have titans like James Cameron returning with Avatar, and Kathrn Bigelow with a new thriller epic. You have Edward Berger returning, a year after being snubbed again for this award. Don't for Kosinski and Chu, who could ride their populist projects to nods. There are plenty of previous nominees and winners like Linklater, Greengrass, Soderberg, Boyle, Brooks, Joon Ho, Waititi, Anderson, and Guillermo Del Toro in a particularly stylish return. Newcomers, outsiders, and overdue vets like Lynne Ramsay, Mona Fastvold, Ronan Day-Lewis, The Philippous, Carson Lund, Celine Song and Alex Garland (Nominated, but not for directing), Andrew Ahn, Roshan Sethi, Jake Schrerier, Eva Victor, Lawrence Lamont, Rithy Panh, Mike Flanagan, James Griffiths, and Andrew DeYoung keep the race fascinating.
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