Sunday, August 17, 2025

The Oscar Narrative: First 2026 Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

First 2026 Nomination Predictions
Miles Caton "Sinners"
Andrew Garfield "After the Hunt"
Paul Mescal "Hamnet"
Adam Sandler "Jay Kelly"
Stellan Skarsgaard "Sentimental Value"

Other Contenders - Jeremy Strong "Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere", Stephen Graham "Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere", Delroy Lindo "Sinners", Jack O'Connell "Sinners", Sean Penn "One Battle After Another", Benico Del Toro "One Battle After Another", Takehiro Hira "Rental Family", Andrew Scott "Blue Moon", Josh O'Connor "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery", Josh O'Connor "The History of Sound", Jonathan Bailey "Wicked: For Good", Jacob Elrodi "Frankenstein", Stavros Halkias "Bugonia", William H. Macy "Train Dreams", Mark Hamill "The Life of Chuck", Michael Shannon "Nuremberg", Russell Crowe "Nuremberg", Lewis Pullman "Ann Lee", Adam Driver "Father, Mother, Sister, Brother", Jeffrey Wright "Highest 2 Lowest", A$AP Rocky "Highest 2 Lowest", Christopher Abbott "Ann Lee", Conan O’Brien "If I Had Legs I’d Kick You", Christoph Waltz "Frakenstein", Javier Bardem "F1", Tom Basden "The Ballad of Wallis Island", Diego Calva "On Swift Horses", Michael Cera "The Phoenician Scheme", Pierce Brosnan "Black Bag", Jonathan Groff "A Nice Indian Boy", David Harbour "Thunderbolts*", Lucas Hedges "Sorry, Baby", Pedro Pascal "Materialists", Harish Patel "A Nice Indian Boy", Paul Rudd "Friendship", Lewis Pullman "Thunderbolts*", Katt Williams "One of Them Days", Steven Yeun "Mickey 17"

Commentary - A great mix of newcomers, veterans, and previous nominees/winners makes for an interesting race. Early on, we already know that Miles Caton could be a force of nature if Sinners remains strong on the circuit (also watch out for his co-stars Delroy Lindo and Jack O'Connell"). I am hearing great buzz about After the Hunt, and Andrew Garfield is a previous nominee. Paul Mescal has already received one nod, and is one of the most sought after actors working today. He pairs up with Oscar-winner Chloe Zhao in Hamnet. Joachim Trier's return is set to be fantastic, and Stellan Skarsgaard might finally get a well overdue Oscar nomination. Same can be said for Adam Sandler, who may finally get recognition for Noah Baumbach's latest Jay Kelly. Right on the cusp are previous winners Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn for Paul Thomas Anderon's latest One Battle After Another. I also would watch out for Jeremy Strong and Stephen Graham in the upcoming Springsteen biopic. Beyond those there are a ton of previous nominees and winners with strong roles including William H. Macy, Michael Shannon, Russell Crowe, Adam Driver, Jeffrey Wright, Javier Bardem, Christoph Waltz, Lucas Hedges and Steven Yeun. Great veterans looking for some overdue recognition include Jonathan Bailey, Andrew Scott, Josh O'Connor, Pierce Brosnan, Mark Hamill, Conan O'Brien, Christopher Abbott, David Harbour, Pedro Pascal, Jonathan Groff, Michael Cera, Tom Basden Paul Rudd, Katt Williams, and Lewis Pullman. Finally be on the lookout for new names and faces, and first timers like Stavros Halkias, Takehiro Hira, Jacob Elrodi, ASAP Rocky, and Harish Patel. 

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