Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor "Nickel Boys"
Ariana Grande "Wicked"
Felicity Jones "The Brutalist"
Isabella Rossellini "Conclave"
Zoe Saldana "Emilia Perez"
Other Contenders - Margaret Qualley "The Substance", Danielle Deadwyler "The Piano Lesson", Selena Gomez "Emilia Perez", Monica Barbaro "A Complete Unknown", Elle Fanning "A Complete Unknown", Carol Kane "Between the Temples", Leonie Benesch "September 5", Joan Chen "Didi", Carrie Coon "His Three Daughters", Natasha Lyonne "His Three Daughters", Elizabeth Olsen "His Three Daughters", Toni Collette "Juror #2", Saoirse Ronan "Blitz"
Commentary - A race in flux, with upwards of at least nine really solid contenders that feel interchangeable. Zoe Saldana and Ariana Grande seem like the top two contenders, sharing a lot of the early critics awards, and both getting Globe and Critics Choice nominations. Right behind them is Isabella Rossellini, who is riding the Conclave love and his hitting all the right marks. Beyond those three is where the flexibility really kicks in. Felicity Jones got a Globe nod, but missed out on the Critics Choice. That film has a lot of force behind it, and she is a previous nominee. I think she makes it in. The final slot is tricky. Both the Globes and the Critics Choice went with Margaret Qualley, who is doing incredibly well on the circuit so far. I know the Academy has diversified in membership in recent years, but I am still a bit hesitant about the chances of The Substance. Body horror dark comedy doesn't scream "Academy". Let's see how SAG and BAFTA land, and how it does at some of the other major guilds. If it continues its momentum, she could easily jump into the top five. Selena Gomez landed at the Globes, but missed at the Critics Choice. If the film is as strong as it looks, she could join her co-star Saldana. A lot of buzz for Danielle Deadwyler has seemed to have faded. She got in at the Critics Choice, but snubbed at the Globes. Plus, overall the film is pretty much dead in any other categories. On the opposite front, Aujanue Ellis-Taylor, who is a previous nominee, got in at the Critics Choice, and Nickel Boys seems like it is really rising in the buzz. If they love the film, and we know they love her (I'm convinced she was a solid second place the first time around for King Richard), she is a real sleeper in this category. Also look out for Kane, Barbaro and Fanning, Chen, Benesch, Coon, Lyonne, Olsen, Ronan, and Collette.
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