Sunday, December 22, 2024

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Actress

Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions
Cynthia Erivo "Wicked"
Karla Sofía Gascón "Emilia Perez"
Marianne Jean-Baptiste "Hard Truths"
Angelina Jolie "Maria"
Mikey Madison "Anora"

Other Contenders - Demi Moore "The Substance", Nicole Kidman "Babygirl", Fernanda Torres "I'm Still Here", Pamela Anderson "The Last Showgirl", Tilda Swinton "The Room Next Door", Zendaya "Challengers", Amy Adams "Nightbitch", Saoirse Ronan "The Outrun", Ryan Destiny "The Fire Inside", Kate Winslet "Lee", Regina King "Shirley" 

Commentary - A tough race that is sure to disappoint many come the final five. So far, previous nominee Cynthia Erivo has hit the high notes for Wicked, which is coming in hot on the Oscar race. Previous winner Angelina Jolie is eyeing a return to the category with her portrayal in Maria, and has hit all the right marks. Mikey Madison has made a name for herself with Better Things, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and other projects, but is hoping to really breakthrough with her first nod for Anora, and by all measures she is the frontrunner. Karla Sofia Gascon is doing well as Emilia Perez continues to do incredibly well. Her historic nomination looks like it is going to happen. In the final slot, a lot of folks are banking on Demi Moore. It would be great to see a truly awesome veteran actress get a well-deserved nomination. But I am still not sold on The Substance breaking through with Academy voters. SAG and BAFTA will help us determine how voters are gauging this surprise awards contender. I am going instead with Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Mike Leigh is a favorite amongst these voters, she is a previous nominee, and recently, these type of performances have done well with voters. Beyond those six, Nicole Kidman can never be counted out, Fernanda Torres could breakthrough, and never discount Pamela Anderson's magnificent performance in The Last Showgirl. Previous nominees/winners like Tilda Swinton, Amy Adams, Saoirse Ronana, Kate Winslet, and Regina King are battling with potential first timers Zendaya and Ryan Destiny. 

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