The Oscar Narrative: Post Telluride/Venice/Toronto Nomination Predictions
Willem Dafoe "Poor Things"
Robert DeNiro "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Robert Downey Jr. "Oppenheimer"
Ryan Gosling "Barbie"
Mark Ruffalo "Poor Things"
Other Contenders - Colman Domingo "The Color Purple", Charles Melton "May December", Dominic Sessa "The Holdovers", John Magaro "Past Lives", Jeremy Allen White "The Iron Claw", Sterling K. Brown "American Fiction", Paul Mescal "All of Us Strangers", Ben Affleck "Air", Chris Tucker "Air", Chris Messina "Air", Ramy Youssef "Poor Things", Jesse Plemmons "Killers of the Flower Moon", Tom Hardy "The Bikeriders", Matt Damon "Oppenheimer", Jon Bernthal "Origin", Jacob Elrodi "Priscilla", Jacob Elrodi "Saltburn"
Commentary - Three actors continue to lead this race. Ryan Gosling for Barbie, Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer, and Robery DeNiro for Killers of the Flower Moon. Going into the critics awards in about six weeks, they are the strongest. Poor Things is also doing incredibly well so far, and I think that previous nominees Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo will pull another Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz double nominations for a Yorgos Lanthimos film. These five feel safe, which means I am missing something, and of course, this wild Oscar ride can change at any moment. Colman Domingo could end up being a double nominee this year, which has happened a lot in the recent past. Charles Melton is getting a lot of raves for May December. I hope John Magaro continues to be a part of the conversation, Dominic Sessa could benefit from The Holdovers success, American Fiction could bring Sterling K. Brown along, and The Iron Claw could make Jeremy Allen White an Oscar and Emmy nominee in the same year. Paul Mescal could return to the Oscarsfor All of Us Strangers, the guys from Air are all great, Jesse Plemons could ride the Killers of the Flower Mon wave and don't forget Tom Hardy, Matt Damon, Jon Bernthal, and Jacob Elrodi times two.
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