Post Telluride/Venice/Toronto Nomination Predictions
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach "Barbie"
David Hemingson "The Holdovers"
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer "Maestro"
Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik "May December"
Celine Song "Past Lives"
Other Contenders - Justin Triet and Arthur Harari "Anatomy of a Fall", Jeff Nichols "The Bikeriders", Sean Durkin "The Iron Claw", Emerald Fennell "Saltburn", Chloe Domont "Fair Play", Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola "Asteroid City", Alex Convery "Air", David Scarpa "Napoleon", Julian Breece and Dustin Lance Black "Rustin", Jennifer Lee and Allison Moore "Wish", Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao and Adele Lim "Joy Ride", Ari Aster "Beau is Afraid"
Commentary - I think there are 10 movies for 5 slots. Barbie is still hitting the original screenplay campaign hard. It will be interesting to see if Academy members agree. Alexander Payne's latest The Holdovers should easily make the cut, even if his name is not attached to the screenplay. Maestro, I think, will play well with Academy voters, and Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer are perennial nominees at this point. I think that Celine Song's Past Lives will have a nice push as the Fall hits, and will particularly do well with this branch. Finally, I moved in Todd Haynes' May December. I'm not convinced that it will survive the season, but it seems to be a lot of people's list in the early go of it. That leaves Anatomy of a Fall on the outside. If it has a strong race, it could easily move in the top five. Same for The Bikeriders, which is being campaigned in this category, but could get moved into Adapted by votes. Sean Durkin's latest The Iron Claw has promise, Fair Play was a Sundance favorite, Air is a great screenplay, and Saltburn, while divisive, also has its cheerleaders that will be going all out for it. Asteroid City is Wes Anderson's return, Napoleon could storm th race, and I would watch out for Rustin, Joy Ride, Wish, and Beau is Afraid.
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