The Oscar Narrative: Post Telluride/Venice/Toronto Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

Post Telluride/Venice/Toronto Predictions

Cord Jefferson "American Fiction"

Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Christopher Nolan "Oppenheimer"

Tony McNamara "Poor Things"

 Jonathan Glazer "The Zone of Interest"

Other Contenders - Ava DuVernay "Origin",  Andrew Haigh "All of Us Strangers", Jeff Nichols "The Bikeriders", Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Dave Callaham "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse", Marcus Gardley "The Color Purple", Doug Wright and Maggie Betts "The Burial", Kelly Fremon Craig "Are You There God, It's Me Margaret?", Sofia Coppola "Priscilla", Andrew Kevin Walker "The Killer", Tran Anh Hung "The Taste of Things", Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Schuker Blum "Dumb Money", Troy Kennedy Martin "Ferrari", Julia Cox "Nyad", Nia DaCosta, Megan McDonnell, and Elissa Karasik "The Marvels",  Matt Johnson and Matthew Miller "BlackBerry", Mark L. Smith "The Boys in the Boat", Mark St. Germain "Freud's Last Session"

Commentary - Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things continue to dominate the predictions and are set for a lot of nominations and wins this season. Added to the bunch is American Fiction which came blazing out of Toronto with the People's Choice Award which has led to a lot of Oscar gold in the last decade plus (think The King's Speech, Silver Linings Playbook, Green Book, 12 Years a Slave, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards, Jojo Rabbit, Nomadland, Belfast, and The Fabelmans). The last slot now is a huge toss up. A lot of folks think that Origin, from Ava DuVernay is going to do well this season, but I feel like it has some mixed reactions, and I wonder if it is going to play across the guilds. In comparison, The Zone of Interest is a critical smash. I have it in fifth place. Beyond those six, Andrew Haigh's latest got rave reviews and Jeff Nichols has been on the cusp of a nod for a long time. Priscilla, The Kller, The Taste of Things, The Burial, Ferrari, Nyad, Dumb Money, Freud's Last Session, and BlackBerry are all flirting with awards attention. Finally, don't forget the big guys and literary adaptations like The Marvels, The Boys in the Boat, Are You There God It's Me Margaret?, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, and of course, The Color Purple.