The Oscar Narrative: First 2024 Nomination Predictions - Best Original Screenplay

First 2024 Nomination Predictions

Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach "Barbie"

David Hemingston "The Holdovers"

Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer "Maestro"

Celine Song "Past Lives"'

Emerald Fennell "Saltburn"

Other Contenders - John Ridley "Shirley", David Scarpa "Napoleon", Julian Breece and Dustin Lance Black "Rustin", Arthur Harari and Justine Triet "Anatomy of a Fall", Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik "May December", Alex Convery "Air", Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola "Asteroid City", Nicole Holofcener “You Hurt My Feelings”, Cherry Chevapravatdumrong, Teresa Hsiao, and Adele Lim “Joy Ride”, Chloe Domont "Fair Play", Sean Durkin "The Iron Claw", Jeymes Samuel "The Book of Clarence", Alex Garland "Civil War", Carmela Covino, Marco Pettenello, Alice Rohrwacher "La Chimera", Andrew Sodroski "Holland, Michigan", A.V. Rockwell "A Thousand and One", Aleem Khan, Nathalie Richard, Talid Ariss “After Love” , Maryam Touzani and Nabil Ayouch “The Blue Caftan”, Gene Stupnitsky and John Phillips "No Hard Feelings", Goran Stolevski “Of An Age”, Jamie Dack and Audrey Findlay “Palm Trees and Power Lines”, Nida Manzoor "Polite Society", Jonathan Raymond and Kelly Reichardt “Showing Up”, Noah Galvin, Molly Gordon, and Nick Lieberman “Theater Camp”, Jean-Pierre Dardenne and Luc Dardenne “Tori and Lokita”

Commentary - As of late July, Warner Bros has still not decided where to submit Barbie, but it looks like they are going to try for Original (and could easily get put in their place by the WGA). So right now, I have it here because that seems like the strategy they are choosing. But I am fully prepared to make room for it in Adapted if the WGA or Warner Bros decides differently. Beyond that there are a lot of interesting contenders. Celine Song's Past Lives has emerged with a lot of Oscar buzz, and I definitely feel like the writers are going to appreciate it. Alexander Payne returns with The Holdovers, but he did not write the screenplay. I have it in, because his films have done well with this branch, but I wonder if I am overestimating its chances. Remember Downsizing? Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer return with Maestro, as does Emerald Fennell with Saltburn. Can these recent favorites strike gold again? Beyond those five, there are a lot of potentials. John Ridley returns with Shirley, David Scarpa writes for Ridley Scott's Napoleon, Dustin Lance Black returns with Rustin, Anatomy of a Fall is the Palme d'Or winner, May December has Todd Haynes behind it, and Air, Asteroid City, and You Hurt My Feelings were early contenders. I would love to see Joy Ride be in play, and I think new entries from Jeymes Samuel, Sean Durkin, Chloe Domont, Alice Rohrwacher, and Alex Garland are intriguing. Finally, I would watch for an indie surprise from the likes A Thousand and One, The Blue Caftan, After Love, Holland Michigan, Palm Trees and Power Lines, Theater Camp, Tori and Lokita, Of An Age, Showing Up, and Polite Society.