Fantasia Barrino "The Color Purple"
Annette Bening "NYAD"
Greta Lee "Past Lives"
Carey Mulligan "Maestro"
Margot Robbie "Barbie"
Other Contenders - Sandra Huller "Anatomy of a Fall", Emma Stone "Poor Things", Natalie Portman "May December", Cailee Spaeny "Priscilla", Phoebe Dynevor "Fair Play", Jodie Comer "The Bikeriders", Vanessa Kirby "Napoleon", Joanna Scanlan “After Love”, Jane Levy "A Little Prayer", Jessica Lange "Long Day's Journey Into Night", Helen Mirren "Golda", Aunjanue Ellis "Origin", Aunjanue Ellis "The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat", Jessica Chastain "Mother's Instinct", Nicole Kidman "Holland, Michigan", Saoirse Ronan "Foe", Halle Bailey “The Little Mermaid”, Julia Louis-Dreyfus “You Hurt My Feelings”, Abby Ryder Fortson "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.", Michelle Williams “Showing Up”, Charlotte Rampling “Juniper”, Lily McInerny “Palm Trees and Power Lines”, Lubna Azabal “The Blue Caftan”, Jennifer Lawrence "No Hard Feelings", Priya Kansara "Polite Society", Joely Mbundu “Tori and Lokita”, Rosy McEwen "Blue Jean", Margaret Qualley "Sanctuary", Teyana Taylor “A Thousand and One”, Kristine Kujath Thorp “Sick of Myself”
Commentary - This race definitely feels in flux depending on the strikes, the reception of certain contenders, and whether contenders will go lead or supporting. Margot Robbie seems like a shoo-in at this point as Barbie just continues to be a film phenomenon, and she is a previous nominee that is popular with these voters. Past Lives continues to have pundits buzzing, and I think that Greta Lee with breakthrough. Maestro might have some controversy heading into its premiere, but if it can overcome it, watch out for previous nominee Carey Mulligan. Annette Bening is one of those actors that is so overdue for an Oscar it is ridiculous. NYAD has a great subject matter, is a biopic (which voter loves), and she definitely has the narrative to win. Finally, if The Color Purple stays in 2023, Fantasia Barrino could be a force to reckon with. She apparently was fantastic during her stage run as Celie, and this role has earned actors like Whoopi Goldberg, LaChanze, and Cynthia Erivo major awards and nominations. It is the kind of awards-magnet role that voters love. Beyond those five though, there are a lot of folks to watch out for. Sandra Huller from the Palme d'Or winner Anatomy of a Fall could be the latest foreigh-language performance to breakthrough. Natalie Portman got great reviews for May December. Emma Stone pairing up with Yorgos Lanthimos again could bring another Oscar nod. Cailee Spaeny has a potential breakthrough role in Priscilla, BAFTA Winner Joanna Scanlan will finally be eligible for an Oscar after the film finally premiered stateside. Jodie Comer has been on an awards streak, which could continue with The Bikeriders, and Phoebe Dynevor of Bridgerton fame is getting a lot of buzz for Fair Play. Don't forget previous nominees and winners like Vanessa Kirby, Jessica Lange, Helen Mirren, Nicole Kidman, Saoirse Ronan, Jennifer Lawrence, Charlotte Rampling, and Michelle Williams. Newcomers like Halle Bailey and Abby Ryder Fortson are formidable, as are veterans like Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Finally, watch out for Margaret Qualley, Lily McInerny, Teyana Taylor, and others.
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