The Oscar Narrative: First 2024 Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

First 2024 Nomination Predictions

Emily Blunt "Oppenheimer" 

Danielle Brooks "The Color Purple"

Lily Gladstone "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Taraji P. Henson "The Color Purple"

Da'Vine Joy Randolph "The Holdovers"

Other Contenders - Penelope Cruz "Ferrari", America Ferrera "Barbie", America Ferrera "Dumb Money", Julianne Moore "May December", Viola Davis "Air", Jodie Foster "Nyad", Rosamund Pike "Saltburn", Aunjanue Ellis "The Nickel Boys", Danielle Deadwyler "The Piano Lesson", Lily James "The Iron Claw", Tantoo Cardinal "Killers of the Flower Moon", Shailene Woodley "Dumb Money", Sarah Silverman "Maestro", Tilda Swinton "The Killer", Maura Tierney "The Iron Claw", Florence Pugh "Oppenheimer", CCH Pounder "Rustin", Carrie Preston "The Holdovers", Margaret Qualley "Poor Things", Carey Mulligan "Saltburn", Aunjanue Ellis "The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat", H.E.R. "The Color Purple", Halle Bailey "The Color Purple", Uzo Aduba "The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat", Sanaa Lathan "The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat", Gemma Chan "The Actor", Jodie Comer "The Bikeriders", Anne Hathaway "Mother's Instinct", Rachel McAdams "Are You There God, It's Me Margaret?", Shailene Woodley "Ferarri", Kathy Bates "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.", Hong Chau “Showing Up”, Hope Davis "Asteroid City", Maya Hawke "Asteroid City", Scarlet Johansson "Asteroid City", Melissa McCarthy “The Little Mermaid”, Tessa Thompson “Creed III”, Michaela Watkins “You Hurt My Feelings”

Commentary - If The Color Purple does get pushed into 2024, it will really open this race up, because right now, if the film turns out as good as we expect, the performances of Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson look like they are going to truly be standouts among an excellent cast (also there is H.E.R. and Halle Bailey who cannot be discounted). Emily Blunt has been flirting with Oscar glory for years now. After the massive success of Oppenheimer, maybe this is the year they finally recognize her amazing talent. The Holdovers could be a return to form for Alexander Payne, and standout Da'Vine Joy Randolph might finally have the awards breakthrough she deserves. Finally, this race is going to have its tone set by Lily Gladstone, whose Cannes reviews for Killers of the Flower Moon suggest she might be the frontrunner from now until the envelope opens. Beyond those five, there are a lot of potentials. America Fererra could get in for her Barbie monologue (or her role in Dumb Money), Viola Davis is always a possibility, Julianne Moore has a lot of buzz, Tantoo Cardinal could join her co-star, and maybe Danielle Deadwyler gets the Oscar nod she was robbed of last year. Previous nominees like Rosamund Pike, Jodie Foster, Tilda Swinton, Penelope Cruz, Carey Mulligan, Aunjanue Ellis, Anne Hathaway, Kathy Bates, Rachel McAdams, Hong Chau, Melissa McCarthy, Scarlet Johansson, and Florence Pugh could return to race. There are some great veteran actors that have never made the final five that could get some overdue recognition including Sarah Silverman, Shailene Woodley, Lily James, Maura Tierney, Uzo Aduba, Carrie Preston, CCH Pounder, Margaret Qualley, Gemma Chan, Hope Davis, Maya Hawke, Michaela Watkins, Tessa Thompson, and Jodie Comer.