The Oscar Narrative: First 2024 Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

First 2024 Nomination Predictions

Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Christopher Nolan "Oppenheimer"

Ava DuVernay "Origin"

Tony McNamara "Poor Things"

Jonathan Glazer "The Zone of Interest"

Other Contenders - Jon Hartmere, Mark L. Smith, and Chris Weitz "The Boys in the Boat", Andrew Kevin Walker "The Killer", Marcus Gardley "The Color Purple", Malcolm Washington and Virgil Williams "The Piano Lesson", Sofia Coppola "Priscilla", Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts "Dune Part Two", Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Dave Callaham "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse", Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross "The Nickel Boys", Kelly Fremon Craig "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret", Jeff Nichols "The Bikeriders", Lauren Schuker Blum and Rebecca Angelo "Dumb Money", Troy Kennedy Martin about Enzo Ferrari "Ferrari", Tina Mabry and Gina Prince-Blythewood "The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat", Paul King and Simon Farnaby "Wonka", Paolo Cognetti, Felix van Groeningen, and Charlotte Vandermeersch “The Eight Mountains”, Ariela Barer, Jordan Sjol, and Daniel Goldhaber "How to Blow Up a Pipeline", Christopher McQuarrie and Erik Jendresen “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”, Ted Malawer "Red, White, and Royal Blue", Nia Vardalos "My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3", Aitch Alberto "Aristotle and Dante Discover the Secrets of the Universe",  Michael Lesslie and Michael Arndt "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes", Taika Waititi and Iain Morris "Next Goal Wins"

Commentary - The question I have is will Barbie go adapted or original? I feel like its original, but it could go either way. My top five could easily change, and the strikes could shift things around as we get through the fall festivals. We know that Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer are going to be huge contenders, and they seem like easy picks here. The Zone of Interest from Jonathan Glazer premiered to absolute raves at Cannes, and is a subject matter that really fits in with Oscar voters. Yorgos Lanthimos returns with Poor Things, from screenwriter Tony McNamara who helped pen his last Oscar hit The Favorite. Finally, I added in the return of Ava DuVernay adapting Isabel Wilkerson, which just feels like a real winner. Beyond that you have several major adaptations that could easily jump in, and the specter of Barbie in this category is looming if it goes adapted. George Clooney doing The Boys in the Boat is the kind of Oscar bait that used to be gold ten years ago. Andrew Kevin Walker adapted The Killer for David Fincher is intriguing, The Color Purple returning should not be discounted (honestly, musicals don't do well in writing categories, I expect it to do well elsewhere), August Wilson's The Piano Lesson is coming to the big screen, Sofia Coppola is tackling Priscilla Pressley, The Nickel Boys from Colson Whitehead is being adapted, and Dune II, if it premieres in 2023, could easily return to this race. Ferrari, Are You There God? It's Me Margaret, Dumb Money, The Bikeriders, and The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat are outside potentials. Indie favorites like How to Blow Up a Pipeline and The Eight Mountains could surprise. Finally, don't forget the bigger populist contenders like Wonka, Red White and Royal Blue, Next Goal Wins, Aristotle and Dante, Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3, and the new Mission: Impossible.