The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell "All Quiet on the Western Front"

Rian Johnson "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"

Kazuo Ishiguro "Living"

Rebecca Lenkiewicz "She Said"

Sarah Polley "Women Talking"

Other Contenders - Samuel D. Hunter "The Whale", Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie "Top Gun: Maverick", Noah Baumbach "White Noise", Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, Patrick Hale "Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio", James Cameron, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silverman "Avatar: The Way of Water", Dean Fleischer-Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Nick Paley "Marcel the Shell with Shoes On", David Kajganich "Bones and All", Kogonada "After Yang"

Commentary - This still feels like a battle between Women Talking and Glass Onion. The other three slots are up in the air in a race that is limited in "traditional" writing nominees, but a lot of interesting contenders. I am sticking with Living, banking on writers respecting the work. She Said has underperformed across the board, but again, it benefits from a weaker field. In the final slot, I have moved in the remake of All Quiet on the Western Front. It is clearly being seen by Academy members and is set to do very well in the technical categories. I think this will crossover to other categories, including this one, directing and maybe Best Picture. I have moved out The Whale, as it has struggled this season outside of Brendan Fraser. If he ends up winning the Oscar, he will go the route of Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady, Marion Cotillard in La Vie in Rose, and last year's winner Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Makeup and acting, and not much else. Top Gun, Avatar, and Black Panther are massive box office draws, all with Best Picture potential. Very often though the writers ignore these types of films. With a weaker group, will they defy the norm? Animated favorites Pinocchio and Marcel the Shell with Shoes On are hoping to crack the race, as are indies like Bones and All and After Yang. For a weaker race, there are still a lot of interesting question marks. 

Best Original Screenplay

Martin McDonagh "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg "The Fabelmans"

Todd Field "TAR"

Ruben Ostlund "Triangle of Sadness"

Other Contenders - Charlotte Wells "Aftersun", Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy Doner "Elvis", Damien Chazelle "Babylon", Seth Reiss and Will Tracy "The Menu", Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly "Till", Jordan Peele "Nope", Elegance Bratton "The Inspection", Lukas Dhont, and Angelo Tijssens "Close", Park Chan-wook and Seo-kyeong Jeong "Decision to Leave", Maria Bello and Dana Stevens "The Woman King"

Commentary - A tough race, but does it feel like there is only one slot? The Banshees of Inisherin, EEAAO, The Fabelmans, and TAR are in right? Are they? Right now, I find it hard to believe than any of those four miss. That leaves only one slot, and a lot of contenders. I keep hearing that voters love Triangle of Sadness, so I have it in. But I also hear a lot of love for Elvis (maybe not a writers movie?), Aftersun (I think she can make the cut if she hits some more key precursors), Babylon (is its reaction too mixed to succeed), Till (is it just Danielle Deadwyler?), The Menu, and Nope (both too genre?). The Inspection, Close, The Woman King, Decision to Leave, and Close are all critical favorites that could breakthrough as well.