Post-Festival Nomination Predictions
Kenneth Branagh "Belfast"
Mike Mills "C'Mon C'Mon"
Adam McKay and David Sirota "Don't Look Up"
Paul Thomas Anderson "Licorice Pizza"
Pedro Almodovar "Parallel Mothers"
Other Contenders - Asghar Farhadi "A Hero", Zach Baylin "King Richard", Paul Schrader "The Card Counter", Julia Ducournau, Jacques Akchoti, and Simonetta Greggio "Titane", Aaron Sorkin "Being the Ricardos", Sean Baker "Red Rocket", Jeymes Samuel and Boaz Yakin "The Harder They Fall", Steven Knight "Spencer", Paolo Sorrentino "The Hand of God", Fran Franz "Mass", Justin Chon "Blue Bayou", Edgar Wright "Last Night in Soho", Wes Anderson, Jason Schwartzman, and Roman Coppola "The French Dispatch", Jonas Poher Rasmussen "Flee"
Commentary - Belfast, after winning the Toronto People's Choice prize has shot up the Oscar charts. I am not the biggest Branagh film, but apparently this personal film is his best yet. Mike Mills, who is a previous nominee in this category, has also gotten a lot of praise for his latest screenplay C'Mon C'Mon. I think writers will appreciate his work, even if other branches ignore it. Paul Thomas Anderson got nominated for Inherent Vice. He is clearly a writer's branch favorite, and unless Licorice Pizza is an utter disaster, he will be a contender. Pedro Almodovar's Parallel Mothers just got snubbed by Spain for the International Feature Film submission. But, Almodovar has a history of defying his country's submission and winning over Academy voters. His latest is getting raves, and he has won this category before. Finally, despite my reservations about the first trailer for Don't Look Up, Adam McKay has defied expectations before to be an Academy favorite. Beyond those five, there are plenty of contenders waiting in the wings. Asghar Farhadi has done well in this category before, King Richard has a lot of buzz (although I don't know if the screenplay has been highlighted), Titane is certainly original, Aaron Sorkin is an Oscar-winning screenwriter, and Sean Baker has been flirting with Oscar success for years. The Harder They Fall has a lot of talent, Paolo Sorretino's latest has been well-received, Spencer has its fans, Wes Anderson and Edgar Wright are screenwriters with vision, and Flee could surprise. This is going to be a fun race to watch.
I am shocked that Luca isn't even in the "Other Contenders".
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