The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

Post Festival 2022 Nomination Predictions

Bradley Cooper "Licorice Pizza"

Willem Dafoe "Nightmare Alley"

Ciaran Hinds "Belfast" 

Jared Leto "House of Gucci"

Kodi Smit-McPhee "The Power of the Dog" 

Other Contenders - Jamie Dornan "Belfast", Troy Kotsur "CODA", Ben Affleck "The Tender Bar", Timothy Spall "Spencer", Richard Jenkins "The Humans", Idris Elba "The Harder They Fall", J.K. Simmons "Being the Ricardos", Adam Driver "The Last Duel", Al Pacino "House of Gucci", Jesse Plemmons "The Power of the Dog", Corey Hawkins "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Brendan Gleeson "The Tragedy of Macbeth", Colman Domingo "Zola", Jonah Hill "Don't Look Up", Tyler Perry "Don't Look Up", Mark Rylance "Don't Look Up", Reed Birney "Mass", Jason Isaacs "Mass", Kelvin Harrison Jr. "Cyrano", Jon Bernthal "King Richard", Robin DeJesus "tick, tick...boom!", Bradley Whitford "tick, tick...boom!", David Alvarez "West Side Story", David Strathairn "Nightmare Alley"

Commentary - This race feels like it is very fluid, and it could go anyway. If you look at the consensus so far, there is not much consensus. Ciaran Hinds feels like the only standard across predictions, as Belfast continues to rise. Kodi Smit-McPhee was a standout of The Power of the Dog, and I think he can ride the film's popularity to a nod. Willem Dafoe has become really popular as of late, and Nightmare Alley's first trailer is really intriguing. House of Gucci is either going to be awesome, or terrible. Jared Leto once again transforms himself, and he could get rewarded for it. Finally, Bradley Cooper could end up a double nominee, in this category for Paul Thomas Anderson's latest Licorice Pizza. Beyond those five, Jamie Dornan is hoping to join Hinds, although apparently he is clearly the lesser of the two in terms of performance. Troy Kotsur is getting a lot of buzz for CODA, Ben Affleck could get in for The Tender Bar, Timothy Spall is a standout in Spencer, Richard Jenkins should never be discounted, and Jesse Plemmons could join his co-star. Previous winners and nominees like J.K. Simmons, Al Pacino, Adam Driver, Jonah Hill, Mark Rylance, and David Strathairn are hoping to return. Veterans like Idris Elba, Tyler Perry, Reed Birney, Jason Isaacs, Jon Bernthal, Bradley Whitford and Robin De Jesus are hoping to finally crack the top five. Finally, young performers like Corey Hawkins and David Alvarez are hoping to make a splash.