Post-Festival Nomination Predictions
Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna "House of Gucci"
Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Lost Daughter"
Guillermo Del Toro and Kim Morgan "Nightmare Alley"
Jane Campion "The Power of the Dog"
Joel Coen "The Tragedy of Macbeth"
Other Contenders - Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth "Dune", Sian Heder "CODA", Rebecca Hall "Passing", Stephan Karam "The Humans", Chloe Zhao, Patrick Burleigh, and Ryan Firpo "Eternals", Steven Levenson "tick, tick...boom!", Joe Wright "Cryano", William Monahan "The Tender Bar", Tony Kushner "West Side Story", Alice Birch "Mothering Sunday", David Lowery "The Green Knight", Quiara Alegría Hudes "In the Heights", Virgil Williams "A Journal for Jordan", Abe Sylvia "The Eyes of Tammy Faye", John Kraskinski "A Quiet Place II", Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, Cary Joji Fukunaga, Phoebe Waller-Bridge "No Time to Die", Dave Callaham, Destin Daniel Cretton, Andrew Lanham "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings", David Chase and Lawrence Konner "The Many Saints of Newark",
Commentary - Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog has entered the post-festival era in the lead with Oscar prognosticators. She has already won a writing Oscar, and she could easily win a second. The Tragedy of Macbeth has also received rave reviews, and Joel Coen is a writing branch favorite. The Lost Daughter premiered to rave reviews, and I think writers will appreciate the effort of Maggie Gyllenhaal, and her well-received adaptation of a popular novel. After seeing the first footage of Nightmare Alley, I think it could be another Guillermo Del Toro hit with voters. Finally, House of Gucci still is a big question mark. I have a feeling it is either going to be awesome or a train wreck. If it is awesome, I think it will do well across the board. Beyond those five though, there are a lot of contenders. Dune had the reaction I thought it would, it will be interesting to see if its fans can make it the latest think piece science fiction pic to do with with the Academy. CODA is a feel-good favorite that could rebound after the fall festival onslaught. Joe Wright should never be discounted, Passing has promise, tick, tick...boom! has a lot of big talent, The Humans could be a favorite of this branch, Mothering Sunday is interesting, William Monahan is an Oscar winner, and Tony Kushner has still yet to win an Oscar. Then there are the big blockbusters like Eternals, Shang-Chi, The Many Saints of Newark, In the Heights, No Time to Die, and A Quiet Place II. Blockbusters sometimes do well, but often don't. In a year where movie theaters are still struggling, maybe voters will want to reward the films keeping them afloat.
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