The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

Post-Festival Nomination Predictions

Caitriona Balfe "Belfast" 

Judi Dench "Belfast"

Ann Dowd "Mass"

Kirsten Dunst "The Power of the Dog"

Aunjanue Ellis "King Richard" 

Other Contenders - Marlee Matlin "CODA", Ruth Negga "Passing", Cate Blanchett "Don't Look Up", Meryl Streep "Don't Look Up", Ariana DeBose "West Side Story", Jayne Houdyshell "The Humans", Martha Plimpton "Mass", Toni Collette "Nightmare Alley", Rooney Mara "Nightmare Alley", Glenn Close "Swan Song", Naomie Harris "Swan Song", Rita Moreno "West Side Story", Gaby Hoffman "C'mon C'mon", Nina Arianda "Being the Ricardos", Regina King "The Harder They Fall", Dakota Johnson "The Lost Daughter", Jessie Buckley "The Lost Daughter", Alana Haim "Licorice Pizza", Olga Merediz "In the Heights", Lily Rabe "The Tender Bar", Rebecca Ferguson "Dune", Anya Taylor-Joy "Last Night in Soho", Salma Hayek "House of Gucci", Olivia Colman "Mothering Sunday", Sally Hawkins "Spencer", Haley Bennett "Cyrano"

Commentary - Caitriona's move to Supporting might have just won her her first Academy Award, or at least her first nomination. The movie is leading this year's race, she is kind of a lead, and she is apparently great in the movie. Ann Dowd, an Emmy-winning veteran, has gotten a lot of buzz for her role in Mass, a film that I think will get a lot of notice from actors. She is the kind of veteran who often does well in these supporting races. Kirsten Dunst could hop up to lead, but I think she has a better shot here. She is a beloved veteran who, despite a long film career, has never managed an Oscar nomination. With The Power of the Dog doing so well, I think she finally makes the cut. Judi Dench could be pushed out by Balfe, or, because she is Judi Dench, she could join her co-star. I think the latter. Finally, the amazing Aunjanue Ellis, who got her first Emmy nomination this year, could add an Oscar nomination to her list of growing (and deserving) accolades. She not only holds her own, but sometimes overpowers her towering co-star Will Smith. But this race has a lot of folks to watch out for, and it looks to be an exciting race to watch. Marlee Matlin, an Oscar-winning icon, could return if CODA finds an audience with Oscar voters (I personally think she could easily knock out one of the current top five). Ruth Negga is getting a lot of buzz for Passing, Don't Look Up has the legends Cate Blanchett and Meryl Streep, Jayne Houdyshell could repeat her Tony win, Martha Plimpton could join her co-star Dowd, Toni Collette and Rooney Mara could return, and Ariana DeBose could be this year's breakthrough performance. There are plenty of previous nominees and winners who could once again charm voters including Glenn Close, Naomie Harris, Regina King, Rita Moreno, Salma Hayek, Olivia Colman and Sally Hawkins. Newcomers and under-rewarded veterans like Gaby Hoffman, Nina Arianda, Jessie Buckley, Alana Haim, Olga Merediz, Lily Rabe, Rebecca Ferguson, Haley Bennet, Anya Taylor-Joy, and Dakota Johnson should not be discounted.