Chadwick Boseman "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
Sacha Baron Cohen "The Trial of the Chicago 7"
Charles Dance "Mank"
Leslie Odom Jr. "One Night in Miami"
David Strathairn "Nomadland"
Other Contenders - Lakeith Stanfield "Judas and the Black Messiah", Lucas Hedges "French Exit", Yahya Abdul-Mateen II "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Mark Rylance 'The Trial of the Chicago 7", Eddie Redmayne "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Frank Langella "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Jeremy Strong "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Michael Keaton "The Trial of the Chicago 7", Aldis Hodge "One Night in Miami", Billy Crystal "Standing Up, Falling Down", Bill Murray "On the Rocks", Steven Yeun "Minari", Will Patton "Minari", Marlon Wayans "Respect", Forest Whitaker "Respect", Kingsley Ben-Adair "One Night in Miami", Jonathan Majors "Da 5 Bloods", Clarke Peters "Da 5 Bloods", Chadwick Boseman "Da 5 Bloods", Tom Pelphrey "Mank", Jesse Plemmons "Judas and the Black Messiah", Shia Labeouf "Pieces of a Woman", Brian Dennehy "Driveways", Caleb Landry Jones "The Outpost", Bo Burnham "Promising Young Woman", Richard E. Grant "Everybody's Talking About Jamie", Richard Jenkins "Kajillionaire", James Corden "The Prom", Andrew Rannells "The Prom", Chris Pine "Wonder Woman 1984"
Commentary - How many guys from The Trial of the Chicago 7 are going to get nominated? History suggests two at most, but this cast is so loaded in a weak year, I could see more getting in to the race. Right now, I am only predicting the one that has been labeled as the standout, Sacha Baron Cohen, to get in, but there are so many names that I can't pick one to be the number two or the number three. For the other four slots, I am going with a variety of big names in big projects. Chadwick Boseman's death shocked Hollywood, and left a whole in the heart of moviegoers who saw a major talent leave us. He actually has two performances this year, but I am betting on his role in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom to get him a posthumous nod, and honestly, I would be shocked if he didn't win as well. One Night in Miami is getting a lot of praise and Tony winner Leslie Odom Jr. is the most likely to reap the benefits of this film's buzz. Mank is going to be a huge contender, and Charles Dance is a legend. Finally, I am going with previous nominee David Strathairn for Nomandland. I think that films is the kind of film that voters are going to want to reward as much as possible. There are so many big names though. Beyond the plethora of Chicago 7 guys, there are legends and previous nominees like Billy Crystal, Bill Murray, Forest Whitaker, Brian Dennehy, Richard E. Grant, and Richard Jenkins. There are also Da 5 Bloods guys, Will Patton and Steven Yeun, the One Night in Miami Guys, Bo Burnham, Marlon Wayans, Tom Pelphrey, Caleb Landry Jones, The Prom guys, Chris Pine, and Shia Labeouf.
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