The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Picture and Best Director

Best Picture
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Other Contenders - Ford v. Ferrari, Knives Out, The Farewell, Rocketman, Bombshell, The Two Popes, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Dolemite is My Name, Hustlers, Pain & Glory

Commentary - There are seven films that feel like locks: Irishman, Jojo, Joker, Marriage Story, 1917, Once, and Parasite. These seven are the ones across all of the major guild precursors who genuinely had the most support. While we have never had less than eight nominees in this category under the new system, I would not be shocked if this year was the first year of seven. But I think that there are two films that could make it into that eighth slot. Little Women is on the rise recently, and fervent fans of the film have come to its rescue. That kind of passion goes a long way to a Best Picture nomination. Bubbling right under those eight are films that did well with guilds like Bombshell, Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman, The Farewell, Dolemite is My Name, Hustlers, The Two Popes, and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Also do not discount passion for Almodovar's Pain & Glory.

Best Director
Bong Joon Ho "Parasite"
Sam Mendes "1917"
Martin Scorsese "The Irishman"
Quentin Tarantino "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Taika Waititi "Jojo Rabbit"

Other Contenders - Todd Phillips "Joker", Greta Gerwig "Little Women", Noah Baumbach "Marriage Story", Pedro Almodovar "Pain & Glory"

Commentary - I am sticking with the DGA five right now, knowing that Phillips is a real threat after his BAFTA nod. I also wonder if the backlash of no female directors getting in at the Globes will move members of the directors branch to put Greta Gerwig in the race. It doesn't hurt that her film is in the zeitgeist right now, and has done a lot better with awards recently. Also look out for Baumbach and Almodovar.