Best Adapted Screenplay
Steve Zaillian "The Irishman"
Taika Wahiti "Jojo Rabbit"
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver "Joker"
Greta Gerwig "Little Women"
Anthony McCarten "The Two Popes"
Other Contenders - Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood", Mario Correa and Nathaniel Rich "Dark Waters", Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham "Just Mercy", Billy Ray "Richard Jewell", John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Josh Cooley, Valerie LaPointe, Rashida Jones, Will McCormack, Martin Hynes, and Stephany Folsom "Toy Story 4", Julian Fellowes "Downton Abbey", Lorene Scafaria "Hustlers", J.C. Lee and Julius Onah "Luce", Lee Hall and Tom Hooper "Cats"
Commentary - Apparently there is some confusion over The Two Popes. It was originally adapted, but now might original (it submitted as original for the WGA). I am keeping it in the adapted race. I think it had a decent enough showing to stay in the race, but the SAG shutout was surprising considering the two performances, and the Netflix factor. The Little Women shutout was even more surprising considering the push they made to SAG voters. It makes me wonder if it is not as strong as supposed. I am still keeping it in the race however, due to its strong Critics Choice showing, its Scripter Nod. Finally, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, and Joker feel like locks as they continue to hit guild after guild, solidifying themselves as true Best Picture contenders. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood just doesn't seem to be popping up other than Hanks, Dark Waters is officially in this race after its Scripter nod, Just Mercy is a sneaky contender that should not be ignored, Toy Story 4 is always a possibility, and Richard Jewell could rebound from its scandal and poor box office. Finally, watch out for Downton Abbey, Luce, and Hustlers as outside possibilities.
Best Original Screenplay
Lulu Wang "The Farewell"
Noah Baumbach "Marriage Story"
Quentin Tarantino "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
Pedro Almodovar "Pain & Glory"
Bong Joon Ho and Jin Won Han "Parasite"
Other Contenders - Charles Randolph "Bombshell", Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns "1917", The Safdie Brothers and Ronald Bronstein "Uncut Gems", Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Susan Haskins, Katie Silberman "Booksmart", Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, and Jason Keller "Ford v. Ferrari", Rian Johnson "Knives Out", Scott Z. Burns "The Report", Shia Lebouf "Honey Boy", Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski "Dolemite is My Name", Lee Hall "Rocketman", Celine Sciamma "Portrait of a Lady on Fire", Lena Waithe and James Frey "Queen & Slim", Trey Edwards Shults "Waves", Jimmy Falls and Joe Talbot "The Last Black Man in San Francisco", Chinonye Chukwu "Clemency"
Commentary - This category is so deep, I think there are plenty of surprises waiting. I feel safe predicting Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite, due to their overall Best Picture status. I also think that Pedro Almodovar's widely loved and deeply personal Pain & Glory will connect with writers, who have given him many nominations over the years, and this category is what made him an Oscar winner. Finally, I think everyone who sees The Farewell has an emotional reaction. I think that writers will appreciate Lulu Wang's hilarious and deeply affecting script. So that leaves a lot of folks outside. Bombshell is an actor's showcase, but could land here, 1917 is more of a directorial debut, as is Uncut Gems. Booksmart should be in this race, as should Knives Out for their smart humor. Ford v. Ferrari, Dolemite is My Name, and Rocketman are doing well with guilds, and could surprise. Finally, indies like Portrait of a Lady on Fire, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, Clemency, Waves, The Report and Honey Boy are hoping to break into a bigger audience.
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