The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Narrative Predictions - Best Picture and Best Director

Best Picture
Bombshell
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Other Contenders - Little Women, The Farewell, The Two Popes, Knives Out, Pain & Glory, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Dolemite is My Name, Rocketman, Avengers: Endgame, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Toy Story 4, Us, Hustlers, Richard Jewell

Commentary - So there are six films that are locked and loaded, unless they stumble in the second half of the guild awards. The Irishman, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, Joker, and Jojo Rabbit right now have done well with the early guild awards and the critical circuit. I think 1917, being such a late contender, will definitely rebound with BAFTA, PGA, ASC, and potentially DGA, and become the seventh slot. That leaves one, maybe two slots left for a wide variety of contenders. Right now, based on early guilds, I am leaning towards Bombshell (which swept the SAG nods), and Ford v. Ferrari, which will do well in the below the line tech categories. I also think it is really worth noting that Rocketman has done well with the craft guilds, and Taron Egerton got a SAG nod. It could be stronger than we thought. This of course leaves out some top contenders. But these films need to do better with the second part of guild awards, or they are going to be left out. This includes Little Women, The Two Popes, Dolemite is My Name, The Farewell, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and Richard Jewell. Finally, some outside contenders are still on my radar like Us, Pain & Glory, Knives Out, Hustlers, and the big guys like Endgame, Star Wars, and Toy Story.

Best Director
Pedro Almodovar "Pain & Glory"
Bong Joon Ho "Parasite"
Sam Mendes "1917"
Martin Scorsese "The Irishman"
Quentin Tarantino "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"

Other Contenders - Noah Baumbach "Marriage Story", Todd Phillips "Joker", Taika Wahiti "Jojo Rabbit", Greta Gerwig "Little Women", James Mangold "Ford v. Ferrari", Jay Roach "Bombshell", Lulu Wang "The Farewell", Celine Sciamma "Portrait of a Lady on Fire", Terrence Malick "A Hidden Life", Marielle Heller "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood", Clint Eastwood "Richard Jewell", Jordan Peele "Us", Rian Johnson "Knives Out"

Commentary - So, I actually think that Noah Baumbach could be left out here. A BAFTA/DGA combo will put him right in, but I feel like that film will be seen as a feat of acting and writing (like Green Book last year, so don't get worried, it is still very much in this race), and leave the directing nod to a film that is seen as a directorial feat. I think that slot is going to be for Pedro Almodovar. He has been nominated before, this film is so personal, and nominations from Bennett Miller and Pawil Pawlikowski prove they are willing to go their own way, even in an expanded Best Picture field. Barring an unforseen DGA/BAFTA lineup, right now it looks like Scorsese, Tarantino, Joon Ho, and Mendes are front runners.