Sunday, May 12, 2019

The Oscar Narrative: First 2020 Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

Firs 2020 Predictions
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Downton Abbey
The Goldfinch
The Irishman
The Last Thing He Wanted
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Other Contenders -  Us, Toy Story 4, Avengers: Endgame, Booksmart, The Woman in the Window, Ford v. Ferrari, 1917, The Pope, Where'd You Go Bernadette?, Cats, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Clemency, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, The Laundromat, Untitled Roger Ailes Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Queen & Slim, Dolemite is My Name, Judy, The King, Waves, Knives Out, Jojo Rabbit, Lucy in the Sky, The Farewell, Late Night, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra, Aladdin, The Lion King, Joker, Frozen 2, It: Chapter 2, Captain Marvel, Long Shot, High Life, Gloria Bell, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Shazam!, Gemini Man, The Lighthouse, Misommar, The Kitchen, Ophelia, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Art of Racing in the Rain, Zombieland: Double Tap, The Good Liar, Knives Out

Commentary - It's always a task to try to get it down to ten at this point, especially knowing how much further it will narrow in the coming months. I now have ten, but know that there are plenty waiting in the wings. Taratino and Scorsese return as legends with two buzzed projects that could vie for the top prize. I am currently predicting four films helmed by women to make the cut, a dramatic and historic increase for a single year: Little Women, The Last Thing He Wanted, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Harriet. After Bohemian Rhapsody's epic Oscar run last year, I am watching Rocketman like a hawk for a similar outcome. Behn Zeitlin shocked us all with Beasts of the Southern Wild, so I am keeping Wendy in the list, so as not to be thrown of again. The Goldfinch has a lot of promise, and I probably should go back and add it in more categories, considering its an adaptation of a Pulitzer winner, by the director of Brooklyn. Finally, Downton Abbey was an Emmy juggernaut. The same type of voters who loved it in the Television Academy will love it in AMPAS. Older, white audiences will devour this film, and I think it could be an Oscar favorite. Then come the rest. Mid-range potentials like Ford v Ferrari, The Pope, Where'd You Go Bernadette?, The Woman in the Window, the Untitled Roger Ailes Project by Jay Roach, 1917, Late Night, The Good Liar, Ad Astra, The Laundromat, and The Art of Racing in the Rain could fill the Green Book slot. Smaller indies like the Todd Hayes and Noah Baumbach projects, Clemency, The Farewell, The Last Black Man in San Francisco, Motherless Brooklyn, Queen & Slim, Jojo Rabbit, The Lighthouse, High Life, Gloria Bell and Midsommar are on the radar. And after the triumph of the blockbusters last year look for Star Wars, Us, Toy Story 4, Avengers, Booksmart, Cats, Aladdin, The Lion King, Joker, Frozen 2, The Kitchen, Spider-Man: Far From Home, It: Chapter 2, Gemini Man, and Captain Marvel should not be discounted.

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