Mahershala Ali "Green Book"
Timothee Chalamet "Beautiful Boy"
Sam Elliott "A Star is Born"
Richard E. Grant "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Sam Rockwell "Vice"
Other Contenders - Michael B. Jordan "Black Panther", Steve Carell "Vice", Bradley Cooper "The Mule", Daniel Kaluuya "Widows", Stephen James "If Beale Street Could Talk", Adam Driver "BlacKkKlansman", Russell Horsby "The Hate U Give", Russell Crowe "Boy Erased", Armie Hammer "On the Basis of Sex", Joel Edgerton "Boy Erased", Alex Wolff "Hereditary", Nicholas Hoult "The Favourite", Lin-Manuel Miranda "Mary Poppins Returns", Sylvester Stallone "Creed 2"
Commentary - I feel pretty good that previous winner Mahershala Ali is going to get back in here for Green Book, which has emerged out of nowhere as a huge Oscar threat. I also think that despite overall support for the film being mixed, that Timothee Chalamet will make the cut. He is apparently fantastic in the film, and is just too popular right now to be ignored. Beyond that, I think there is some wiggle room. Sam Elliott could easily get a career nod for A Star Is Born, which has just come off what is said to be a rapturous Academy screening, but his screen time is minimal. Richard E. Grant is fantastic in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but will Melissa McCarthy's Oscar run overshadow him. Finally, I am saving a slot for Sam Rockwell as Bush in Vice, with the first trailer proving he is a contender. But what if it is Steve Carell as Rumsfeld instead? Michael B. Jordan is on the cusp here, but Black Panther has got to prove itself in acting precursors. Of the widows folks, I think last year's nominee Daniel Kaluuya is the best possibility. Steven James, Russell Hornsby, Alex Wolff and Nicholas Hoult are talented young actors with big roles. I am also looking at Stallone, Miranda, Hammer, and Driver to crash the party.