Thursday, October 4, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Predictions - Best Original Screenplay

Post-Festival Predictions
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara "The Favourite"
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, and Peter Farrelly "Green Book"
Nick Schenk "The Mule"
Alfonso Cuaron "Roma"
Adam McKay "Vice"

Other Contenders - Bo Burnham "Eighth Grade", Jonah Hill "Mid90s", Joel and Ethan Coen "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs", Paul Schrader "First Reformed", Tamara Jenkins "Private Life", Diablo Cody "Tully", Boots Riley "Sorry to Bother You", Bryan Woods, Scott Beck, and John Krasinksi "A Quiet Place", Ari Aster "Hereditary", Wes Anderson "Isle of Dogs",

Commentary - Three slots are locked and loaded, with Roma, Green Book, and The Favourite being huge Best Picture contenders and well-received at the fall fests. A lot of smaller contenders, many of which work well in this category, are hoping to use this category to get Oscar nominations. Eighth Grade, Mid90s, First Reformed, Private Life, Tully, and Sorry to Bother You are all of the kind of well-received indies that often sneak into this race. I also would watch out for the big guns. Of course I am talking about the Coen Bros., Wes Anderson, and the team behind this summer's surprise horror smashes A Quiet Place and Hereditary. After Get Out's victory, A Quiet Place and Hereditary are ones I am looking for as we get closer to the critics phase of Oscar season. But the last two slots I am holding out for two big contenders that I think will make a late splash. Adam McKay won a screenplay category the last time he had a big movie out, and the first trailer for Vice looks like it will be right up the Academy's alley. Finally, never discount Clint Eastwood. All of the sudden his potential last acting job lands right in his prime December slot where he launched American Sniper and Million Dollar Baby to Oscar glory. Plus the first trailer looks great. I think we have a last-minute Oscar contender on our hands that cannot be ignored.

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