Sunday, October 14, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Predictions - Best Actor

Post-Festival Predictions
Christian Bale "Vice"
Bradley Cooper "A Star is Born"
Clint Eastwood "The Mule"
Ryan Gosling "First Man"
Viggo Mortensen "Green Book"

Other Contenders - Rami Malek "Bohemian Rhapsody", Robert Redford "Old Man and a Gun", Willem Dafoe "At Eternity's Gate", Lucas Hedges "Boy Erased", Steve Carell "Beautiful Boy", Steve Carell "Welcome to Marwen", Chadwick Boseman "Black Panther", Stephan James "If Beale Street Could Talk", Hugh Jackman "The Front Runner", John David Washington "BlacKkKlansman", Ben Foster "Leave No Trace"

Commentary - Bradley Cooper and Ryan Gosling can probably book their tickets to this year's Oscars, and both of their films continue on their trajectory towards awards glory. The surprise of the Toronto was Green Book, and it put Viggo Mortensen into this race. The movie is loved by many in the industry and he is a previous nominee. The last two slots are up in the air. After seeing the trailer, I still think we need to save a slot for Christian Bale in Vice. His Dick Cheney looks spot on, and it is the type of performance voters eat up. Finally, I was saving a slot for Robert Redford because it was his last acting performance. But it is a subtle performance, and another legend has also announced his final performance. Clint Eastwood is releasing The Mule right in the same sweet spot that landed him Oscar glory for Million Dollar Baby and American Sniper. In the first trailer, it is clear this will be an emotional, and not subtle performance. I think he sneaks in that last slot. Early reactions to Bohemian Rhapsody are that Rami Malek is fantastic, the film not so much. I think he will probably win the Golden Globe, but may struggle in this tough Oscar race. Willem Dafoe is apparently fantastic in At Eternity's Gate, but the film has been compared to torture or paint drying in terms of the viewing experience. Really tough films like this often struggle at the Oscars. There are two Steve Carell roles, Luas Hedges, Chadwick Boseman, Hugh Jackman, and two newcomers Stephan James and John David Washington, all of whom should not be discounted.

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