Will Win - Emma Stone "La La Land"
Could Win - Isabelle Huppert "Elle" or Meryl Streep "La La Land"
Should Win - Stone or Ruth Negga "Loving"
Commentary - Ruth Negga's nomination was one of my favorites, and while I know she will not win, I think that I will bask in her nomination glory for a while. Huppert has not yet faced Emma Stone. The Globes were separate categories, she wasn't eligible for BAFTA, and wasn't nominated at SAG. This is the first time they are facing off, and so we are kind of in new territory, which is frightening for those of us in the predicting world, because it throws in an unknown. That being said, it is really difficult to lose an Oscar when you have won the Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA, and when your film is the leading Best Picture contender. Huppert certainly has her cheerleaders, but this is really Stone's to lost. The wild card? Meryl Streep. She is always in this, because she is Meryl Streep. But after her Globes speech, don't be surprised if Hollywood gives her a chance to take the stage again.