Will Win - Mahershala Ali "Moonlight"
Could Win - Dev Patel "Lion"
Should Win - Mahershala Ali "Moonlight"
Commentary - BAFTA really threw a wrench into this race, picking Dev Patel. This shows two things: 1) that Lion (which also won Adapted Screenplay) has its passionate supporters 2) That Ali is not a slam dunk. But over here in the United States Moonlight is a lot more well liked than in the UK, and Ali won the SAG. It's not just that he won the SAG, he gave a timely and memorable speech that I think will resonate here more than elsewhere. This is now a real race, make no mistake, and if they call Dev Patel's name, I will not be shocked. But in the end, I think that Mahershala Ali has enough support, and enough momentum to seal the deal.