The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

Post Venice/Telluride/Toronto Predictions
Jennifer Jason Leigh "The Hateful Eight"
Rooney Mara "Carol"
Rachel McAdams "Spotlight"
Alicia Vikander "The Danish Girl"
Kate Winslet "Steve Jobs"

Other Contenders - Joan Allen "Room", Diane Ladd "Joy", Virginia Madsen "Joy", Jane Fonda "Youth", Amy Ryan "Bridge of Spies", Jessica Chastain "The Martian", Jessica Chastain "Crimson Peak", Elizabeth Banks "Love & Mercy", Julie Walters "Brooklyn", Kristen Stewart "Clouds of Sils Maria", Gugu Mbatha-Raw "Concussion", Elizabeth Olsen "I Saw the Light", Helena Bonham Carter "Suffragette", Meryl Streep "Suffragette", Anne Marie Duff "Suffragette", Laura Linney "Mr. Holmes", Phylicia Rashad "Creed", Helen Mirren "Trumbo", Sarah Paulson "Carol", Rose Byrne "Spy", Ellen Page "Freeheld", Julianne Nicholson "Black Mass", Rachel Weisz "Youth", Nicole Kidman "Secret in Their Eyes", Sienna Miller "Burnt", Keira Knightley "Everest", Rachel Weisz "The Lobster", Scarlett Johansson "Marvel's The Avengers: Age of Ultron", Bryce Dallas Howaird "Jurassic Park", Allison Janney "Spy", Rosie Huntington-Whiteley "Mad Max: Fury Road", Zoe Kravitz "Mad Max: Fury Road", Rene Russo "The Intern", Elisabeth Rohm "Joy", Kristen Wiig "The Diary of a Teenage Girl", Kristen Wiig "The Martian", Melanie Laurent "By the Sea", Rachel McAdams "Southpaw", Brie Larson "Trainwreck", Zoe Kazan "Our Brand is Crisis", Ann Dowd "Our Brand is Crisis"

Commentary - Coming out of the fall festivals, there are now three known entities that seem like safe bets, at least at this early stage in the race. First and foremost is Rooney Mara, who I feel like is the front runner. She essentially is the co-lead with Blanchett but is being campaigned in supporting. Given the screen time, let alone the rave reviews, she will be a tough competitor. Alicia Vikander is another contender that probably should be in lead, but is once again being campaigned in supporting. We knew that Eddie Redmayne would be a interesting contender, but honestly, of the two, it feels like its Vikander, who is going to have a Jessica Chastain-esque year with about five major releases, has the most heat. Kate Winslet, who has not been nominated since her win for The Reader, is said to be a standout among a mostly male cast in Danny Boyle and Aaron Sorkin's hot new contender Steve Jobs. The season can change at any moment, new contenders can emerge, and original contenders can fall by the wayside. But these three feel safe at the moment. The other two slots are definitely up in the air. Sight unseen, there is a lot of buzz for Jennifer Jason Leigh, and it really feels like Hollywood is banking on a comeback. Of course there was a lot of heat for Margot at the Wedding a few years ago, and that did not turn out as well. But that was not a Tarantino movie, and he has yet to make a dud. Finally, Spotlight is tearing up the Oscar punditry right now, and a lot of the love seems to be on its cast. Yet, Michael Keaton seems to be the only one getting a lot of support. I think that if this film is going to be the one to beat, it is going to bring along another actor with it. Rachel McAdams has been churning out great work for years now and she is the only major female among a large cast of guys. I think this could be her first real shot at an Oscar nomination. But this means that I am leaving out the actresses from Joy, and David O. Russell's track record suggests one of them has a really good shot at a nod. Joan Allen has a small role in Room, but it is apparently powerful. Jessica Chastain has two options this year, Jane Fonda is apparently a knockout in Youth, Elizabeth Banks should be invited to the party for Love & Mercy, and Kristen Stewart has already made history with her role in Clouds of Sils Maria. There are several folks looking for a first nomination including Elizabeth Olsen, Sarah Paulson, Julianne Nicholson, Phylicia Rashad, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Rose Byrne, the Mad Max girls, and Kristen Wiig. Then there are the veterans including Meryl Streep and Helena Bonham Carter for Suffragette (roles are probably too small), Helen Mirren, Julie Walters, Laura Linney, Ellen Page, Keira Knightley, and Rachel Weisz. As always, we'll have to wait and see...