Saturday, October 17, 2015

The Oscar Narrative: First Golden Globe Predictions - Actor and Actress in a Comedy/Musical

Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical
Sandra Bullock "Our Brand is Crisis"
Amy Schumer "Trainwreck"
Maggie Smith "The Lady in the Van"
Meryl Streep "Ricki and the Flash"
Lily Tomlin "Grandma"

Other Contenders - Melissa McCarthy "Spy", Judi Dench "The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel", Anne Hathaway "The Intern", Tina Fey "Sisters", Amy Poehler "Sisters", Blythe Danner "I'll See You in My Dreams", Mae Whitman "The DUFF", Diane Keaton "Love the Coopers", Anna Kendrick "Pitch Perfect 2", Naomi Watts "While We're Young", Patricia Clarkson "Learning to Drive", Bel Powley "Diary of a Teenage Girl", Kristen Wiig "Welcome to Me", Olivia Cooke "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl", Annette Bening "Danny Collins", Reese Witherspoon "Hot Pursuit", Sofia Vergara "Hot Pursuit", Emma Stone "Irrational Man", Emma Stone "Aloha", Taissa Farmiga "The Final Girls", Kate Hudson "Rock the Kasbah", Kristen Stewart "American Ultra"

Commentary - There are two women I feel like are safe bets at this point, and are probably the two who will battle it out for the prize. The first is the new Emmy-winning darling, and awesome SNL host Amy Schumer, who is now a critical darling and a genuine star. Her Trainwreck was this summer's big raunchy comedy, and Schumer is now too big of a star for the always star-hunger HFPA to ignore. The other is the legendary Lily Tomlin. She is getting a lot of Oscar buzz for Grandma, and is a powerhouse in the film. Tomlin has never won an individual Globe (she won a special one for Short Cuts), and it would be an awesome moment at the ceremony. Maggie Smith's The Lady in the Van premiered at the fests, and most of the praise came for her performance. The last two are based on name solely. Ricki and the Flash might have been a bit of a bomb, but never discount the Globes and their love for Meryl Streep. Finally, while Our Brand is Crisis is getting roasted by the critics, there is still a lot of praise for her performance despite the overall product. Once again, don't discount her star power. I would love to see Melissa McCarthy get nominated for Spy, the best comedy so far this year. But to date, Melissa McCarthy has never (somehow) earned a Golden Globe nomination. Judi Dench is a strong contender for The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and if they remember how much the film made, she could easily get in. Anne Hathaway is great in The Intern (even if the overall product is mixed at best), and the Sisters that are the great Amy Poehler and Tina Fey could have some good will left over from their hosting jobs the last three years. Blythe Danner is charming in I'll See You in My Dreams, Mae Whitman leads DUFF, Anna Kendrick is infectious in Pitch Perfect 2, and the indie comedies offer Kristen Wiig, Bel Powley, Olivia Cooke, Patricia Clarkson, and Naomi Watts. Diane Keaton could be a knockout in Love the Coopers, as could Kate Hudson in Rock the Kasbah. And despite its terrible reviews do not discount the star-studded duo of Hot Pursuit, Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara.

Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical
Steve Carell "The Big Short"
Bradley Cooper "Burnt"
Bryan Cranston "Trumbo"
Robert DeNiro "The Intern"
Matt Damon "The Martian"

Other Contenders - Bill Hader "Trainwreck", Bill Murray "Rock the Kasbah", Al Pacino "Danny Collins", Thomas Mann "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl", Christian Bale "The Big Short", Brad Pitt "The Big Short", Joaquin Phoenix "Irrational Man", Mark Ruffalo "Infinitely Polar Bear", Paul Rudd "Ant-Man", Billy Bob Thornton "Our Brand is Crisis", Ben Stiller "While We're Young", Shameik Moore "Dope", Ben Kingsley "Learning to Drive", Kevin Hart "The Wedding Ringer", Will Smith "Focus", Will Ferrell "Get Hard", Kevin Hart "Get Hard", Bradley Cooper "Aloha", Mark Wahlberg "Ted 2", Channing Tatum "Magic Mike XXL", Adam Sandler "Pixels", Ed Helms "Vacation", Jesse Eisenberg "American Ultra", Bruce Willis "Rock the Kasbah", Tye Sherdian "Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse", John Goodman "Love the Coopers", Joseph Gordon-Levitt "The Night Before"

Commentary - So The Martian looks to jump start its Oscar campaign by submitting as a comedy, and it could win, and Matt Damon could be brought along with the film. Burnt has yet to be seen, but Bradley Cooper is a bona fide star, and a good early guess. The Big Short is getting a ton of buzz, and while I'm still not sure who is the lead, Steve Carell is getting the most buzz at the moment of the three. Trumbo, which premiered to great reviews for its star Bryan Cranston, will probably try to go as a comedy, and between the performance, and the lingering love for Breaking Bad, he will probably be a shoo-in. Finally, while The Intern was mixed at best, Robert DeNiro carries the film on his back, and is a beloved veteran. Beyond those five there are a lot of potentials. Al Pacino is great in Danny Collins, Bill Hader as well in Trainwreck, Bill Murray and Bruce Willis could be fantastic in Rock the Kasbah, and Thomas Mann is charming for Me and Earl and the Dying Girl. Mark Ruffalo, Ben Still, Shameik Moore, and Ben Kingsley represent the indie offerings, and Paul Rudd, Kevin Hart, Ed Helms, John Goodman, and Will Ferrell represent the big guys. Tye Sheridan, Channing Tatum, Billy Bob Thornton, and Joseph Gordon-Levitt should also be considered.

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