Tuesday, July 21, 2015

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

July Predictions
Nick Hornby "Brooklyn"
Phyllis Nagy "Carol"
Lucina Coxen "The Danish Girl"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Mark L. Smith "The Revenant"
Aaron Sorkin "Steve Jobs"

Other Contenders - John Logan "Genius", Jesse Andrews "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl", Scott Cooper and Mark Mallouk "Black Mass", Billy Ray "The Secret in Their Eyes", Cary Fukunaga "Beasts of No Nation", Donald Margulies "The End of the Tour", Drew Goddard "The Martian", Charles Leavitt, Rick Jaffa, and Amanda Silver "In the Heart of the Sea", Derek Cianfrance "The Light Between Oceans", Bill Condon "Mr. Holmes", John Logan, Neal Purvis, and Robert Wade "Spectre", Robert Zemeckis and Christopher Browne "The Walk", Marc Abraham "I Saw the Light", Roy Nyswaner "Freeheld", Kieran Fitzgerald and Oliver Stone "Snowden", Jacob Koskoff and Todd Louiso "Macbeth", George Miller, Brendan McCarthy, and Nick Lathouris "Mad Max: Fury Road", Tom Stoppard "Tulip Fever", Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini "Ten Thousand Saints", Emma Donoghue "Room", J.J. Abrams and Lawrence Kasdan "Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens", Joss Whedon "Avengers: Age of Ultron", Jason Fuchs "Pan"

Commentary - So interestingly enough, my predictions have not changed between my earliest March ones, and now. Carol premiered to rave reviews at Cannes, launching it squarely into the Oscar race in a lot of categories. Brooklyn is still basking in is Sundance glow. The Revenant features an all-star cast, and the return of last year's big winner Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. Steve Jobs' initial trailer looked great, and you should never discount the writing of Aaron Sorkin. And The Danish Girl is Tom Hooper with last year's Best Actor winner playing a transgender in The Danish Girl. Put it all together and you could have a real Oscar player. So at the moment, I don't see the need to make drastic changes. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl could be the YA novel hit that finally breaks through in this category. Beasts of No Nation, if it is good, will benefit from Netflix's aggressive campaign division. Billy Ray returns with the remake of The Secret in Their Eyes, The Martian was a brilliant science fiction novel with a great first trailer, In the Heart of Sea was moved to a better slot which means the studio likes its award's chance, and Derek Cianfrance tackles the popular novel The Light Between Oceans. The Walk, Mr. Holmes, Snowden, Macbeth, I Saw the Light Freeheld, Tulip Fever, John Logan's Genius, Black Mass, and The End of Tour hope to join along with genre projects including Avengers, Mad Max, Star Wars, Pan, and Spectre into a competitive race.

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