The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Picture

July Predictions
Black Mass
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Joy
The Revenant
Steve Jobs

Other Contenders - Our Brand is Crisis, Suffragette, Spotlight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens, Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, Freeheld, I Saw the Light, The Walk, In the Heart of the Sea, By the Sea, The Good Dinosaur, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, The Program, Tulip Fever, Spy, Jurassic World, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Genius, Youth, Everest, Snowden, A Bigger Splash, Spectre, Love and Mercy, Ex Machina, Money Monster, Adam Jones, Macbeth, The Peanuts Movie, Dope, Far From the Maddening Crowd, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part II, Irrational Man, Cinderella, The DUFF, Kingsman: The Secret Service, Clouds of Sils Maria

Commentary - So since this 5 to 10 scheme was hatched, there have been nine, and then eight nominees. So more than five feels like a guarantee, and I am surprised that something like Foxcatcher didn't grab that ninth slot last year. So right now, as always, I am sticking with ten, knowing full and well that there will probably be less. Carol has landed at Cannes and is a smash for critics, and probably Academy voters. The Revenant is Inarritu's Birdman followup. He probably won't win back to back, but don't discount a lot of Academy love if the film is good. Joy has David O. Russell behind it, The Hateful Eight - Quentin Tarantino, and Bridge of Spies - Steven Spielberg. Beyond those five match-ups with Best Director though, the terrain gets a bit confusing and bumpy. Steve Jobs seems like the perfect project on paper, but it has had a bumpy road to fruition. Brooklyn was a smash at Sundance, but can it hold on like Boyhood and Whiplash did last year? Inside Out should be in there, easily, but since they moved from 10 nominees to this news system, not one animated film has been nominated. Of course none that have come in those years were as good as Inside Out, and it is just the type of broad-based, popular entertainment the Academy needs to embrace. Tom Hooper's The Danish Girl with Eddie Redmayne feels like pure Oscar bait, and finally Black Mass is just a project that intrigues me. And its Venice debut makes me really excited that this could be a real winner. That leaves out Our Brand is Crisis, Suffragette, and Spotlight, all relevant, important, or historical projects. It also leaves out those blockbusters/potential blockbusters the Oscars are so desperate for like Star Wars, The Martian, Spy, Trainwreck, Spectre, The Good Dinosaur and Mad Max: Fury Road. Then there is Jolie's By the Sea, Tulip Fever, The Program, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, Genius, Youth, Adam Jones, Sicario, Freeheld, Ron Howard's In the Heart of the Sea, Robert Zemeckis' The Walk, and Straight Outta Compton which is getting some heavy praise in early reviews. As always, we'll have to wait and see...

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Director

July Predictions
Todd Haynes "Carol"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu "The Revenant"
David O. Russell "Joy"
Steven Spielberg "Bridge of Spies"
Quentin Tarantino "The Hateful Eight"

Other Contenders - Tom Hooper "The Danish Girl", Ron Howard "In the Heart of the Sea", George Miller "Mad Max: Fury Road", Ridley Scott "The Martian", David Gordon Green "Our Brand is Crisis", Danny Boyle "Steve Jobs", Sarah Gavron "Suffragette", Scott Cooper "Black Mass", Cary Fukunaga "Beasts of No Nation", Thomas McCarthy "Spotlight", Robert Zemeckis "The Walk", Stephen Frears "The Program", John Crowley "Brooklyn", Denis Villenueve "Sicario", Angelina Jolie "By the Sea", Pete Docter and Ronaldo Del Carmen "Inside Out", Judd Apatow "Trainwreck",  Paul Feig "Spy", Alfonso Gomez-Rejon "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl", Bill Pohland "Love & Mercy", Rick Famuyima "Dope", Alex Garland "Ex Machina", Michael Grandage "Genius", Jodie Foster "Money Monster", Paul Weitz "Grandma", J.J. Abrams "Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens", Peter Sohn "The Good Dinosaur", Oliver Stone "Snowden", Marc Abraham "I Saw the Light", Courtney Hunt "The Whole Truth", James Vanderbilt "Truth", Paolo Sorrentino "Youth", Sean Penn "The Last Face", Justin Kurzel "Macbeth"

Commentary - It is funny how some races can change dramatically, yet some say the same. My top five has not changed since my early predictions, and unless something either dive bombs or rises meterorically at the fall festivals trio (Venice, Telluride, and Toronto), I don't see this lineup changing very soon. Todd Haynes is the only known entity at this point, and after years of quality work, Carol might be the first film that earns him a directing nomination. The other four are based on recent work, and their total careers. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu just won for Birdman, and the initial footage of The Revenant looks strong. David O. Russell now has three nominations in a row, and with that kind of streak, the Academy might finally give him the win, if Joy continues his streak of great films. Steven Spielberg is always a threat, and Bridge of Spies looks right up his alley. Finally, Tarantino would have been nominated for Django had Weinstein not bungled the initial release. It caught up in a lot of categories, but it probably needed more time for that tough director race. Either way, the Academy voters, after years of ignoring him (post Pulp Fiction), seem to finally being the insanity of Tarantino's brilliance, and The Hateful Eight looks like another hit. So that's it right? Of course not. Ridley Scott has The Martian, Tom Hooper has The Danish Girl, Ron Howard - In the Heart of the Sea, Danny Boyle - Steve Jobs, Steven Frears - The Program, Oliver Stone - Snowden, and Robert Zemeckis - The Walk. All previous nominees or winners, and all respected directors with great track records. Then there are those looking for their first nomination, something that always seems to occur. Thomas McCarthy has a great cast and a timely subject in Spotlight. David Gorden Green, the same, with Our Brand is Crisis. Cary Fukunaga could benefit from Netflix's crazy campaigns, John Crowley has a Sundance hit, Alfonso Gomez-Rejon a feel good hit, and Judd Apatow/Paul Feig, yet more successful blockbuster comedies. Then there is Scott Cooper, Sarah Gavron, Denis Villenuece, Angelina Jolie (on the directors side), Alex Garland, Justin Kurzel, Bill Pohland, Michael Grandage, Jodie Foster (another directing first potential), and Marc Abraham. Then there are big guys like the Pixar folks, J.J. Abrams bringing Star Wars to life once again, and of course the great George Miller, who not only deserves a nod for Fury Road, but for a stellar Hollywood career, and for taking an old concept and finally getting it just right. If there is justice in this world, he will not be forgotten come January.

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Actor

July Predictions
Johnny Depp "Black Mass"
Leonardo DiCaprio "The Revenant"
Michael Fassbender "Steve Jobs"
Tom Hanks "Bridge of Spies"
Eddie Redmayne "The Danish Girl"

Other Contenders - Matt Damon "The Martian", Ian McKellen "Mr. Holmes", Michael Caine "Youth", Jake Gyllenhaal "Southpaw", Ben Foster "The Program", Paul Dano "Love & Mercy", John Cusack "Love & Mercy", Chris Hemsworth "In the Heart of the Sea", Michael B. Jordan "Creed", Joseph Gordon-Levitt "Snowden", Michael Fassbender "Macbeth", Colin Firth "Genius", Brad Pitt "By the Sea", Tom Hiddleston "I Saw the Light", Bradley Cooper "Adam Jones", Tom Hardy "Legend", Tom Hardy "Mad Max: Fury Road", Ethan Hawke "Born to Be Blue", Jason Segal "The End of The Tour", Bryan Cranston "Trumbo", Mattias Schoenarts "A Bigger Splash", Tom Courtenay "45 Years", Antonio Banderas "The 33", Jack O'Connell "Money Monster", Robert Redford "Truth", Miles Teller "Bleed for This", Jonathan Rhys-Meyers "Stonewall", Thomas Mann "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl", Nat Wolff "Paper Towns", Al Pacino "Danny Collins", Shameik Moore "Dope", Chris Pratt "Jurassic World", Woody Harrelson "Triple 9", Joel Edgerton "Life", Dane DeHaan "Tulip Fever"

Commentary - It seems like every year there is a newcomer to this race, someone who crashes the party. At this moment though it is hard to tell who that will be, as so many previous nominees and winners are stacking the decks early on, starting with last year's winner Eddie Redmayne playing a transgender in a Tom Hooper historical biopic. If that doesn't scream Oscar, I don't know what does. Michael Fassbender broke through two years ago with 12 Years a Slave, and hopes to score his first lead nomination playing Steve Jobs. He may not look as much like Jobs as Ashton Kutcher, but I have no doubt he will turn out a much better performance. Johnny Depp has had a rough streak lately (Into the Woods was too slight of a role to really count). But he is breaking away from Tim Burton (a much needed break for both of them), and is going way out of his comfort zone playing Whitey Bulger in Black Mass. The trailer looks fantastic, and the film is premiering at Venice, so it looks like Depp may finally be back in top form. At least we can all hope. Tom Hanks was royally screwed out of a nomination for Captain Phillips (okay so the top five were great, it was a tough year), but he has another shot this year when he teams up with Steven Spielberg in a Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies. Finally, after being the bridesmaid way too many times, maybe this is the year that Leonardo DiCaprio finally wins an Oscar. The Revenant has had some production issues regarding safety, but the cast and crew are top notch and Inarritu has not made a bad film in years. But there are plenty of Oscar veterans on the outside looking in. Matt Damon could pull a Sandra Bullock with The Martian, Jake Gyllenhaal could get the nod he was robbed of last year for Southpaw if voters can get past the lackluster total product, Ian McKellen could be the latest actor to get hardware for playing Sherlock Holmes, and Michael Caine could get in once again for Youth. Paul Dano and John Cusack should be in the conversation for Love & Mercy, Bradley Cooper, Ethan Hawke, Jason Segal, Bryan Cranston, Brad Pitt, Michael B. Jordan, Miles Teller, Robert Redford, Chris Hemsworth, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Tom Hiddleston, and the great Al Pacino are also in for a variety of projects that look promising.

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Actress

July Predictions
Cate Blanchett "Carol"
Jennifer Lawrence "Joy"
Julianne Moore "Freeheld"
Meryl Streep "Ricki and the Flash"
Lily Tomlin "Grandma"

Other Contenders - Rooney Mara "Carol", Sandra Bullock "Our Brand is Crisis", Carey Mulligan "Suffragette", Marion Cotillard "Macbeth", Brie Larson "Room", Alicia Vikander "The Danish Girl", Alicia Vikander "The Light Between Oceans", Alicia Vikander "Ex Machina", Alicia Vikander "Tulip Fever", Angelina Jolie "By the Sea", Emily Blunt "Sicario", Charlize Theron "Mad Max: Fury Road", Amy Schumer "Trainwreck", Melissa McCarthy "Spy", Juliette Binoche "Clouds of Sils Maria", Gugu Mbatha-Raw "The Whole Truth", Bel Powley "The Diary of a Teenage Girl", Maggie Smith "My Old Lady", Judi Dench "The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel", Sally Field "Hello, My Name is Doris", Tilda Swinton "A Bigger Splash", Greta Gerwig "Mistress America", Glenn Close "Duchess", Mia Wasikowska "Crimson Peak", Charlotte Rampling "45 Years", Carey Mulligan "Far From the Maddening Crowd", Kristen Wiig "Welcome to Me", Anna Kendrick "Pitch Perfect 2", Viola Davis "Lila & Eve", Jennifer Lopez "Lila & Eve", Margot Robbie "Z for Zachariah", Drew Barrymore "Miss You Already", Emma Watson "Regression"

Commentary - So, is it really possible that the last three winners of this category all come back with a potential to win again? The answer is yes, starting of course with Cate Blanchett, who is definitely in this race after Carol landed so well at Cannes. Rooney Mara is still lurking here, as category placement is not quite settled, but most folks agree she will go supporting to maximize their nomination total. Then there is Jennifer Lawrence, who is once again teaming up with David O. Russell. Unlike Silver Linings Playbook, she truly is the star of the show here, and from the trailer, it looks like another knock-out performance. Last, but certainly not least, a new trailer was released for Freeheld, and while the whole cast looks fantastic, it is Julianne Moore that immediately grabs your attention. I don't know if she can win back to back Oscars, she won't have the same overdue narrative she had last year, but I would not be surprised if she got back into the top five. The last two slots I am reserving for two veterans. The first, of course, is Meryl Streep. Ricki and the Flash has a great cast and writer/director, yet the previews look a lot like fluff. I am hoping that the final product will have a bit more bite, and either way, I think Streep cannot and will not be discounted in this race. Finally, I have switched out Sandra Bullock for the moment (who is very much a possibility) for a veteran who is having a banner year so far. Lily Tomlin received an Emmy last September, a Kennedy Center Honor in December, and is nominated yet again for her role in Grace and Frankie. Grandma has already gotten a ton of buzz, and apparently Tomlin is fantastic. If they thought Julianne Moore was overdue for recognition (she was), then Tomlin is even more so, and this could be a winning role for the veteran comedienne. Beyond those five (and Bullock and Mara), there is a nominee last year, Marion Cotillard as Lady MacBeth, Brie Larson for Room, Alicia Vikander in about five roles, and Carey Mulligan in two. Emily Blunt and Charlize Theron both have received rave reviews for their action-packed projects, although genre bias could leave them out of the conversation completely. Throw Melissa McCarthy into the same boat for Spy, simply because comedies don't usually do well. Juliette Binoche, Sally Field, Tilda Swinton, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Charlotte Rampling, Drew Barrymore, Angelina Jolie, Viola Davis, Emma Watson, and the new "it" girl who just scored a bunch of Emmy nominations, Amy Schumer, are also strong possibilities.

2015 Venice Film Festival Lineup

35 Days until the Oscar race really kicks into high gear! I cannot wait

COMPETITION
Frenzy
Heart Of A Dog
Sangue Del Mio Sangue
Looking For Grace
Equals
Remember
Beasts Of No Nation
Per Amor Vostro
Marguerite
Rabin, The Last Day
A Bigger Splash
The Endless River
The Danish Girl
Anomalisa
L’Attesa
11 Minutes
Francofonia
El Clan
Desde Alla
L’Hermine
Behemoth

OUT OF COMPETITION
Everest
Mr Six
Go With Me
Non Essere Cattivo
Black Mass
Spotlight.
La Calle De La Amargura
The Audition
Winter On Fire,
De Palma
Janis
Sobytie (The Event)
Gli Uomini Di Questa Citta Io Non Li Consoco
L’Esercito Piu Piccolo Del Mondo
Na Ri Xiawu (Afternoon)
In Jackson Heights

SPECIAL SCREENING
Humane

HORIZONS
Madame Courage
A Copy Of My Mind
Pecore In Eerba
Tempête
The Childhood Of A Leader
Italian Gangster
Chaharshanbeh, 19 Ordibehesht (Wednesday, May 9)
Mountain
Krigen (A War)
Visaarani (Interrogation)
Free In Deed
Boi Neon
Man Down
Lama Azavtani (Why Hast Thou Forsaken Me)
Un Monstruo De Mil Cabezas
Mate-Me Por Favor
Taj Mahal
Interruption

2015 Toronto Film Festival Lineup

We are almost there!!!:

Galas
“Beeba Boys"
“Forsaken"
“Freeheld"
“Hyena Road"
“Lolo"
“LEGEND"
“The Man Who Knew Infinity"
“The Martian"
“The Program"
“Remember"
“Septembers of Shiraz"
“Stonewall"
“The Dressmaker"
“Eye in the Sky"

Special Presentations
“Anomalisa"
“Beasts of No Nation"
“Black Mass"
“Brooklyn"
“Colonia"
“The Danish Girl"
“The Daughter"
“Desierto"
“Dheepan"
“Families"
“Guilty"
“I Smile Back"
“The Idol"
“The Lady in the Van"
“Len and Company"
“The Lobster"
“Louder than Bombs"
“Maggie’s Plan"
“Mountains May Depart"
“Parched"
“Room"
“Sicario"
“Son of Saul"
“Spotlight"
“Sunset Song"
“Trumbo"
“Un plus une"
“Victoria"
“Where To Invade Next"
“Youth"
“The Club"
“The Daughter"
“The Family Fang"
“Office"
“Son of Saul"
“Summertime"

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

July Predictions
Bradley Cooper "Joy"
Jeff Daniels "Steve Jobs"
Robert DeNiro "Joy"
Tom Hardy "The Revenant"
Samuel L. Jackson "The Hateful Eight"

Other Contenders - Alan Alda "Bridge of Spies", Mark Rylance "Bridge of Spies", Billy Magnussen "Bridge of Spies",  Kurt Russell "The Hateful Eight", Bruce Dern "The Hateful Eight", Demian Bichir "The Hateful Eight", Tim Roth "The Hateful Eight", Walton Goggins "The Hateful Eight", Steve Carell "Freeheld", Michael Shannon "Freeheld", Benedict Cumberbatch "Black Mass", Corey Stoll "Black Mass", Kevin Bacon "Black Mass", Harvey Keitel "Youth", Ralph Fiennes "A Bigger Splash", Christoph Waltz "Tulip Fever", Oscar Isaac "Ex Machina", Bradley Whitford "I Saw the Light", Emory Cohen "Brooklyn", Benicio Del Toro "Sicario", Kyle Chandler "Carol", Billy Bob Thornton "Our Brand is Crisis", Michael Keaton "Spotlight", Mark Ruffalo "Spotlight", Stanley Tucci "Spotlight", John Slattery "Spotlight", Seth Rogen "Steve Jobs", Cillian Murphy "In the Heart of the Sea", Ben Whishaw "In the Heart of the Sea", Kevin Kline "Ricki and the Flash", Sebastian Stan "Ricki and the Flash", Dane DeHaan "Life", George Clooney "Money Monster", Jude Law "Genuis", Guy Pearce "Genius"

Commentary - The Hateful Eight is so stacked, it could literally fill out all five slots with beloved veteran actors. Kurt Russell seems like the obvious choice here, but I am going with Samuel L. Jackson. A lot depends on who is the best scenery-chewer in the film, but they owe Jackson some love from Tarantino's last film Django Unchained. So for now, he is in. But Russell, Dern, Goggins, Roth, and Bichir could all play depending on how the roles turn out. Joy has two major roles to contend with, and given the recent track record of David O. Russell's actors (including previous nominations for both of these guys in his movies), it is not out of the realm of possibility that both Robert DeNiro and Bradley Cooper get in. We see it happen a lot in these supporting categories, and I think, given their star power it is a real possibility going into the fall. Steve Jobs has several contenders, including Seth Rogen, but I think, at least from what we see from the trailer, that Jeff Daniels is going to be the stand out among the supporting players. He has finally gotten the attention of the Emmy voters with The Newsroom, and after a stellar career, he is an overdue veteran, that has proven that when he is given the fast-paced and intelligent writing of Aaron Sorkin, he can soar as an actor. Finally, the first trailer for The Revenant, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's followup to his Oscar triumph Birdman, looks promising. Maybe this is the role that finally gets Tom Hardy an Oscar nomination. Combined with his Mad Max role, this could be a breakthrough year for the star, and everything in the film's Oscar pedigree points to potential Oscar glory. So that leaves the Bridge of Spies guys on the outside looking in. Alan Alda is a beloved Oscar-nominated veteran, and Mark Rylance is a Tony-winning genius of the stage, who just got an Emmy nomination. Both are real threats. So are the Black Mass guys. It is premering in Venice, which makes me think it is a real contender, and it has Kevin Bacon, Corey Stoll, and a nominee last year, Benedict Cumberbatch in its ranks. I think that Johnny Depp is a real threat based on the trailer, but it will take the initial reviews to sort out which of these three guys are the biggest threats. Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo could be back again for Spotlight (for that matter watch out for Stanley Tucci and John Slattey). Genius, In the Heart of the Sea, and Ricki and the Flash have dynamic duos to consider, as well as Ralph Fiennes, Harvey Keitel, Dane DeHaan, George Clooney, Kyle Chandler, and Bradley Whitford.

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

July Predictions
Jennifer Jason Leigh "The Hateful Eight"
Diane Ladd "Joy"
Rooney Mara "Carol"
Ellen Page "Freeheld"
Amy Ryan "Bridge of Spies"

Other Contenders - Virginia Madsen "Joy", Jessica Chastain "The Martian", Helena Bonham Carter "Suffragette", Meryl Streep "Suffragette", Julia Roberts "Secret in Their Eyes", Kate Winslet "Steve Jobs", Elizabeth Olsen "I Saw the Light", Isabella Rosellini "Joy" Ann Dowd "Our Brand is Crisis", Julie Walters "Brooklyn", Sarah Paulson "Carol", Laura Linney "Genius", Nicole Kidman "Genius", Shailene Woodley "Snowden", Melissa Leo "Snowden", Joan Allen "Room", Elizabeth Banks "Love & Mercy", Phyllis Smith "Inside Out", Kristen Stewart "Clouds of Sils Maria", Julia Roberts "Money Monster", Rose Byrne "Spy", Judi Dench "Tulip Fever", Toni Collette "Miss You Already", Kirsten Dunst "Midnight Special", Katherine Waterston "Steve Jobs", Keira Knightley "Everest", Jane Fonda "Youth", Melanie Laurent "By the Sea", Dakota Johnson "A Bigger Splash", Gugu Mbatha-Raw "Concussion", Rachel Weisz "Youth", Parker Posey "Irrational Man", Cate Blanchett "Cinderella", Scarlett Johannson "Avengers: Age of Ultron", Maggie Smith "The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"

Commentary - Margot at the Wedding turned out to be a bust, but it did prove that Jennifer Jason Leigh was not a one-hit wonder or a washed up actress. The Hateful Eight looks to be yet another Tarantino classic, and she could easily be a standout among the mostly male cast. Plus, honestly, does Tarantino not seem like the perfect style for her? Rooney Mara could go lead with Cate Blanchett, and honestly, both could still get again, according to early reviews out of Cannes. But Harvey is not stupid, and he will work very hard to maximize the awards potential out of the film. I think that Blanchett will stay in lead, building on here recent win and veteran status, and Mara will move down to supporting, to ensure both get nominations. And if those same reviews are any indication, she could win here first Oscar. The last three slots are real shots in the dark. The first trailer for Freeheld looks promising, but mostly because of the performances. Ellen Page, particularly Julianne Moore, and maybe even Steve Carell and Michael Shannon could capitalize on a film that looks like Oscar bait, particularly for the actors. So Page gets in. Joy is one to watch for, and while we don't know enough about the supporting cast, history suggests that Isabella Rosellini, Virgnia Madsen and Diane Ladd are all potential contenders (remember when Jacki Weaver got in for little screen time for Silver Linings Playbook, actors love David O. Russell). Of the bunch, I have switched from Madsen to Ladd, with Madsen just on the outside. Ladd seems like one of those veteran performers that has been overlooked too many times. She has three nominations to date, and while there is no indication either way, my gut tells me she is one to watch. Finally, Bridge of Spies is a big, bold, Cold War-era historical epic from the great Steven Spielberg. The trailer looks mostly like the Tom Hanks show, but Amy Ryan could be a standout, and she is consistently good, and a well-liked veteran. Beyond those five, and Madsen, there is Jessica Chastain in The Martian, which I really hope is good. Meryl Streep and Helena Bonham Carter in Suffragette could be fantastic, Julia Roberts has two great roles this year, Kate Winslet with an Aaron Sorkin script, breakout star Elizabeth Olsen, the genius duo, the great Sarah Paulson, Ann Down, Julie Walters, Joan Allen, Katherine Waterston, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, the Youth duo, the Snowden duo, Toni Collette, Kristen Stewart's Cesar winning role, and, if there is any sanity left in this world, the voice work of Phyllis Smith in Inside Out are all on the radar in the early stages of the race.

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Technical Categories

I will do full list, with full contenders later, for now, these are just my early, knee-jerk reactions to these races.

Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins "Sicario"
Janusz Kaminski "Bridge of Spies"
Emmanuel Lubezki "The Revenant"
Robert Richardson "The Hateful Eight"
John Seale "Mad Max: Fury Road"

Best Costume Design
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Macbeth
Suffragette

Best Film Editing
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Joy
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Best Makeup and Hair-Styling
Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Best Original Score
Mychael Danna "The Good Dinosaur"
Michael Giacchino "Inside Out"
Thomas Newman "Bridge of Spies"
Thomas Newman "Spectre"
John Williams "Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens"

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Cinderella
Macbeth
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Best Sound Mixing
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Spectre
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Best Sound Editing
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Spectre
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Animated Feature

July Predictions
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
Kahlil Gibran's The Prophet
The Little Prince
When Marnie Was There

Other Contenders - Minions, Zarafa, The Peanuts Movie, Storks, Kung Fu Panda 3, The Boy and the World, The Spongebob Movie: Sponge Out of Water", Robodog, El Americano: The Movie", Home, Strange Magic, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Underdogs, Hotel Transylvania 2

Commentary - The first teaser trailer for The Good Dinosaur is a bit jarring visually, but looks like once it is all put together on screen, could be yet another Pixar movie this year to make a huge splash. I say another, because right now this race is easily one-way with Inside Out so far ahead, that the later contenders will be playing catch up the rest of this year. So that leaves three slots, and there are plenty of big movie contenders to look at like The Peanuts Movie, Minions, potentially Kung Fu Panda 3 (it has a January release date, but will it try a qualifying run?). But GKids is on the rise, and as we know, these animators are not afraid to go for the foreign or the indie, more crafty contenders. Of the multitude of options this year from the studio, it is Salma Hayek's Kahlil Gibran's The Prophet, and When Marnie Was There from Miyazaki protege Hiromasa Yonebayashi. Finally, after making a splash at Cannes, Paramount's pick up The Little Prince could play well with the animation branch, based solely on those first reviews.

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

July Predictions
Nick Hornby "Brooklyn"
Phyllis Nagy "Carol"
Lucina Coxen "The Danish Girl"
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Mark L. Smith "The Revenant"
Aaron Sorkin "Steve Jobs"

Other Contenders - John Logan "Genius", Jesse Andrews "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl", Scott Cooper and Mark Mallouk "Black Mass", Billy Ray "The Secret in Their Eyes", Cary Fukunaga "Beasts of No Nation", Donald Margulies "The End of the Tour", Drew Goddard "The Martian", Charles Leavitt, Rick Jaffa, and Amanda Silver "In the Heart of the Sea", Derek Cianfrance "The Light Between Oceans", Bill Condon "Mr. Holmes", John Logan, Neal Purvis, and Robert Wade "Spectre", Robert Zemeckis and Christopher Browne "The Walk", Marc Abraham "I Saw the Light", Roy Nyswaner "Freeheld", Kieran Fitzgerald and Oliver Stone "Snowden", Jacob Koskoff and Todd Louiso "Macbeth", George Miller, Brendan McCarthy, and Nick Lathouris "Mad Max: Fury Road", Tom Stoppard "Tulip Fever", Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini "Ten Thousand Saints", Emma Donoghue "Room", J.J. Abrams and Lawrence Kasdan "Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens", Joss Whedon "Avengers: Age of Ultron", Jason Fuchs "Pan"

Commentary - So interestingly enough, my predictions have not changed between my earliest March ones, and now. Carol premiered to rave reviews at Cannes, launching it squarely into the Oscar race in a lot of categories. Brooklyn is still basking in is Sundance glow. The Revenant features an all-star cast, and the return of last year's big winner Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu. Steve Jobs' initial trailer looked great, and you should never discount the writing of Aaron Sorkin. And The Danish Girl is Tom Hooper with last year's Best Actor winner playing a transgender in The Danish Girl. Put it all together and you could have a real Oscar player. So at the moment, I don't see the need to make drastic changes. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl could be the YA novel hit that finally breaks through in this category. Beasts of No Nation, if it is good, will benefit from Netflix's aggressive campaign division. Billy Ray returns with the remake of The Secret in Their Eyes, The Martian was a brilliant science fiction novel with a great first trailer, In the Heart of Sea was moved to a better slot which means the studio likes its award's chance, and Derek Cianfrance tackles the popular novel The Light Between Oceans. The Walk, Mr. Holmes, Snowden, Macbeth, I Saw the Light Freeheld, Tulip Fever, John Logan's Genius, Black Mass, and The End of Tour hope to join along with genre projects including Avengers, Mad Max, Star Wars, Pan, and Spectre into a competitive race.

2015 MTV Video Music Award (VMA) Award Nominations

Video of the Year
Beyonce "7/11"
Kendrick Lamar "Alright"
Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars "Uptown Funk"
Ed Sheeran "Thinking Out Loud"
Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar "Bad Blood"

Best Male Video
Nick Jonas "Chains"
Kendrick Lamar "Alright"
Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars "Uptown Funk"
Ed Sheeran "Thinking Out Loud"
The Weeknd "Earned It"

Best Female Video
Beyonce "7/11"
Ellie Golding "Love Me Like You Do"
Nicki Minaj "Anaconda"
Sia "Elastic Heart"
Taylor Swift "Blank Space"

Best Pop Video
Beyonce "7/11"
Maroon 5 "Sugar"
Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars "Uptown Funk"
Ed Sheeran "Thinking Out Loud"
Taylor Swift "Blank Space"

Best Hip-Hop Video
Big Sean feat. E-40 "IDFWU"
Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth "See You Again"
Kendrick Lamar "Alright"
Nicki Minaj "Anaconda"
Fetty Wap "Trap Queen"

Best Rock Video
Arctic Monkeys "Why'd You Only Call Me When You're High?"
Fall Out Boy "Uma Thurman"
Florence + The Machine "Ship to Wreck"
Hozier "Take Me to Church"
Walk the Moon "Shut Up and Dance"

Best Collaboration
Ariana Grande feat. The Weeknd "Love Me Harder"
Jessie J., Ariana Grande, and Nicki Minaj "Bang Bang"
Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth "See You Again"
Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars "Uptown Funk"
Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar "Bad Blood"

Best Video With a Social Message
Big Sean feat. Kanye West and John Legend "One Man Can Change the World"
Colbie Calliat "Try"
Jennifer Hudson "I Still Love You"
Rihanna "American Oxygen"
Wale "The White Shoes"

MTV Artist to Watch
James Bay "Hold Back the River"
George Ezra "Budapest"
Vance Joy "Riptide"
FKA Twigs "Pendulum"
Fetty Wap "Trap Queen"

Best Direction
Brendan Canty and Conal Thomson "Take Me to Church" (Hozier)
Joseph Kahn "Bad Blood" (Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar)
Bruno Mars and Cameron Duddy "Uptown Funk" (Mark Ronson feat. Bruno Mars)
Hiro Murai "Sober" (Childish Gambino)
Colin Tilley and The Little Homies "Alright" (Kendrick Lamar)

Best Art Direction
The Chemical Brothers "Go"
Snoop Dogg "So Many Pros"
Skrillex & Diplo feat. Justin Bieber "Where Are U Now"
Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar "Bad Blood"
Jack White "Would You Fight For My Love"

Best Cinematography
Alt-J "Left Hand Free"
Flyis Lotus feat. Kendrick Lamar "Never Catch Me"
Ed Sheeran "Thinking Out Loud"
Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar "Bad Blood"
FKA Twigs "Two Weeks"

Best Choreography
Beyonce "7/11"
Chet Faker "Gold"
Flying Lotus ft. Kendrick Lamar "Never Catch Me"
OK Go "I Won't Let You Down"
Ed Sheeran "Don't"

Best Editing
A$AP Rocky "L$D"
Beyonce "7/11"
Ed Sheeran "Don't
Skrillex and Diplo feat. Justin Bieber "Where Are U Now"
Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar "Bad Blood"

Best Visual Effects
Childish Gambino "Telegraph Ave."
Skrillex & Diplo feat. Justin Bieber "Where Are U Now"
Taylor Swift feat. Kendrick Lamar "Bad Blood"
FKA Twigs "Two Weeks"
Tyler the Creator "F***** Young/Death Camp"

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Original Screenplay

July Predictions
Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen "Bridge of Spies"
Quentin Tarantino "The Hateful Eight"
Pete Docter, Ronaldo Del Carmen, Meg LeFauve, and Josh Cooley "Inside Out"
Annie Mumulo and David O. Russell "Joy"
Amy Schumer and Judd Apatow "Trainwreck"

Other Contenders - Richard Linklater "Everybody Wants Some" Diablo Cody "Ricki and the Flash", Abi Morgan "Suffragette", Paolo Sorrentino "Youth", Angelina Jolie "By the Sea", Paul Weitz "Grandma", Oren Moverman and Michael L. Lerner "Love & Mercy", Enrico Casarosa and Bob Peterson "The Good Dinosaur", Alex Garland "Ex Machina", Noah Baumbach "While We're Young", Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig "Mistress America", Laslo Nemes and Clara Royer "Son of Saul", David Kajganic and Alain Page "A Bigger Splash" Alan DiFiore, Jim Kouf, Jamie Linden "Money Monster", Woody Allen "Irrational Man", Robert Budreau "Born to Be Blue", Jon Robin Baitz "Stonewall", Jeff Nichols "Midnight Special", Simon Beaufoy, Mark Medoff, Justin Isbell, and William Nicholson "Everest", Alejandro Amenabar "Regression", Nancy Meyers "The Intern", Luke Davies "Life", Guillermo del Toro and Matthew Robinson "Crimson Peak"

Commentary - We already have one absolutely knock 'em out contender for this category. Of course I am speaking of Inside Out. It won't be eligible probably for the WGA, so we will be doing a lot of guesswork. But Pixar used to do very well in these screenplay categories, when their films were getting the kind of reviews that Inside Out has brought back to the studio. Plus, after several years of this category being a killer, this year feels a bit lighter, at least at the start. I fully expect Inside Out to bring back the screenplay nomination to Pixar. There are two big guns, and recent nominees/winners coming back into the race that will be tough to beat out. Quentin Tarantino is returning to the western with The Hateful Eight, and while some of his films have been ignored in the past by the Academy, he has never made a bad movie, and since Inglourious Basterds, he has been on a streak with voters. David O. Russell returns with Joy, and from the first trailer, it looks like he could have another hit on his hands. He barely missed out on this category for American Hustle, and he joins forces with Bridesmaid nominee Annie Mumulo, who will probably bring some humor to the proceedings. Joel and Ethan Coen now have had two back to back historical films that they have written the screenplay, but not directed. After all these years, I find it interesting, especially since Unbroken turned out less stellar than we thought. But they are at it again, this time with Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks, a proven pair with a lot of Oscar wins/nominations under their belt. The trailer looked like classic historical Spielberg, and maybe this time the style of the Coen Bros can shine through better than with Unbroken. Finally, with good reviews, and a good opening weekend, Amy Schumer has proven that she can be both a television star (with a butt-load of Emmys under her belt), and a genuine movie star. Trainwreck will have to knock out a lot of more serious contenders, and it doesn't quite have the same level of love as Bridesmaids did a few years ago. But for now, Schumer's star power seems strong enough to get her in the top five. Abi Morgan is an Emmy winner, but has not had the best luck on the film side in terms of awards. Suffragette looks powerful and important, and could be a big bust, or not appeal to the quirkier writing branch. Richard Linklater just got a bunch of nods for Boyhood, but Everybody Wants Some doesn't feel Academy friendly. Ricki and the Flash has a stellar cast and crew, and could bring Diablo Cody back to the Oscars. Youth, By the Sea, Grandma, Love & Mercy, the two Noah Baumbach entries, the other Pixar effort The Good Dinosaur, Jeff Nichols latest, Money Monster, and Woody Allen's latest Irrational Man are also on the radar. Also, here's to hoping that Crimson Peak brings some genre work to the Oscars, and that the return to horror will bring out the best in Guillermo Del Toro.

First 2015 Emmy Winner Predictions

Here are my gut-reaction winner predictions, pre-tapes, for this year's Emmys, in the aftermath of the nomination announcement:

Best Drama Series - Game of Thrones
Best Comedy Series - Veep
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Jon Hamm "Mad Men"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Viola Davis "How to Get Away With Murder"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Amy Poehler "Parks & Recreation"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - Jonathan Banks "Better Call Saul"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Lena Headey "Game of Thrones"
Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series -  Beau Bridges "Masters of Sex"
Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series - Cicely Tyson "How to Get Away With Murder"
Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series - Jon Hamm "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series - Tina Fey "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Matthew Weiner "Mad Men - Person to Person"
Best Directing in a Drama Series - David Nutter "Game of Thrones - Mother's Mercy"
Best Writing in a Comedy Series - Jill Soloway "Transparent - Pilot"
Best Directing in a Comedy Series - Armando Iannucci "Veep - Testimony"
Best TV Movie - Bessie
Best Miniseries - Olive Kitteridge
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Richard Jenkins "Olive Kitteridge"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Frances McDormand "Olive Kitteridge"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Finn Wittrock "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Sarah Paulson "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Best Directing in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Lisa Cholodenko "Olive Kitteridge"
Best Writing in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Jane Anderson "Olive Kitteridge"
Best Variety Series - Talk - The Colbert Report
Best Variety Series - Sketch - Saturday Night Live
Best Variety Special - Saturday Night Live - 40th Anniversary
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Jerry Foley "The Late Show with David Letterman - Episode 4214"
Best Writing in Variety Series - The Colbert Report
Best Directing in a Variety Special - Don Roy King "Saturday Night Live 40th Anniversary"
Best Writing in a Variety Special - Louis C.K. "Louis C.K.: Live at the Comedy Store"
Best Special Class Program - The 68th Annual Tony Awards
Best Reality-Competition Series - The Voice
Best Structured Reality Series - Shark Tank
Best Unstructured Reality Series - Deadliest Catch
Best Reality Host - Jane Lynch "Hollywood Game Night"

2015 Emmy Nomination Reactions

So here are my reactions:

Drama
Where the heck is Empire? I am not going to claim racism, because this is a record year for black actors at the Emmys, including a ton of great surprises. This is not about race, this is about the snobby voters. They have never been too kind to primetime soap operas, and now with so many different options for their series predictions, they don't even have to nominate them any more. That leaves though an interesting race brewing. House of Cards missed out on writing and directing, Downton and Orange is the New Black under-performed, and Homeland and Better Call Saul should be happy to be there. This is between Game of Thrones which jumped, in its fifth season, from 19 to 24 nominations, beating every show in the total number by a long shot. There is a lot of love and nostalgia for Mad Men, who rebounded nicely, but there is a momentum for Game of Thrones that is hard to deny. Best Actor saw a big surprise nod with Liev Schreiber, but almost everyone else was expected. I had switched out Kyle Chandler for Clive Owen because I had not seen a lot of buzz for Bloodline, and I definitely regret it because he is clearly still a favorite among these voters. It is Drama Actress that had the big surprise of the morning. Elisabeth Moss got back in, Julianna Margulies was left out, although that wasn't as shocking as the nod for Tatiana Maslany. Fanboys around the work are rejoicing. It is just interesting that they finally nominate her, for a truly bad season of a the show. I am happy though to see some shakeup, and I love the dueling nods for Taraji P. Henson and Viola Davis. I think Davis is the front runner, but Henson and Robin Wright should not be discounted. No love for Farmiga, Wilson (The Affair in general), and Taylor Schilling, as we see Orange is the New Black really diminish in its jump from Comedy to Drama (despite a series nomination). The Supporting races were full of surprises. The biggest is Maggie Smith. How did she miss out? And yet, Joanne Froggatt gets in? Then Game of Thrones gets both of their actresses in, and Lorraine Touissant somehow is not nominated. I actually moved her out for Froggatt on Tuesday, but secretly hoped that voters would recognize her brilliance this season. They did not, but without Smith, this race is wide open and incredibly interesting to watch. For the record, watch out for Baranski, a beloved veteran with an awesome season under her belt. Supporting Actor provided more surprises with Jon Voight being left off, despite a Liev Schreiber nomination. Alan Cumming got in for the first time since 2011, Michael Kelly and Ben Mendelsohn got in, yet Mandy Patinkin was left off despite Homeland getting back into Drama Series (mostly thanks to his a. esome performance this season). But with the Emmys there are always surprises. The Guest categories are a mess for both Drama and Comedy, especially with the rule changes. More on those later, although the fact that so few Good Wife guys got in, was shocking, and unfortunately telling about the shows diminishing Emmy chances.

Comedy
This is the category that has the most shakeup. Modern Family is diminished to the point that, despite by better nature, I think it is finally going to be beaten. It has no directing or writing nomination, Jesse Tyler Ferguson was left off, as was Nathan Lane, leaving only Bowen, Burrell, and Banks (the three B's if you will) left in the acting categories. That leaves room for someone to take its place. I think this is a two way race between Transparent and Veep. I think Veep leads this, because it is actually a comedy, unlike Transparent, but they clearly loved that show, and watched its first season, and Veep's overall season was its weakest yet. It will be an interesting race to watch. Best Actor had seven nominees, and yet still kept that space-filling duo of LeBlanc and Cheadle, while leaving off Parsons, and the series missed out as well. It is an aging show, and the Emmys have clearly moved on (despite nods for Bialik and Baranski). But the inclusions of newcomers Tambor, Forte, and particularly Anthony Anderson were welcomed, and those are the three, I think, that are leading this race, based on their potential episode submissions. Best Actress left off Jane Fonda, but included Lily Tomlin, which means voters watched Grace and Frankie (and overall were not impressed). Instead they included Lisa Kudrow, who after a decade, proves to still be an Emmy favorite. But I think this race is between the queen Julia Louis-Dreyfus, the under-rewarded Amy Poehler (yay for Parks & Rec getting back into Comedy Series!!!), and the upstart Amy Schumer, who feels like she could be this year's Melissa McCarthy thanks to her sudden rise, and her new hit movie Trainwreck. I hate that Ellie Kemper and Gina Rodriguez were left off, but next year there will be three new slots (Poehler, Falco, and Kudrow), so there is still hope for them. The Supporting categories are truly telling. Adam Driver got in again, despite a lot of folks betting against him. His movie career must be really working for him. And a variety performer once again got in, but it was not Fred Armisen, as I had predicted. But Keegan-Michael Key. The show also got a writing nomination, so it , like Inside Amy Schumer, is clearly on the rise with Emmy voters. Then we get to Supporting Actress. I would not have thought that this would be the biggest tie of the nominations, but with eight nominations, this is clearly the most difficult category for voters. You have your expected nominees like Bialik, Chlumsky, Janney, McKinnon, and even Krakowski. But then Gaby Hoffman, who actually got two nods, gets in over the legend Judith Light. Now of the supporting cast, she was the best, but still a surprise. Another proof that they voters loved this show, and actually watched it. Then there is the Niecy Nash nomination. I love Getting On, and am glad to see the cast represented, although I am surprised Nash got in over Borstein. But this a great nod for a veteran actress, who has been dolling out great work for decades now. She probably won't win, but I'm glad to see the Emmy voters are paying attention to shows across the board, no matter how small.

TV Movie/Miniseries
American Crime showed some muscle up against favorites Olive Kitteridge and AHS: Freak Show, making it an interesting three-way race. But how in the hell did Hello Ladies (a good show), and Grace of Monaco (a terrible movie), get in over other contenders? I have no idea, and since Bessie is going to easily win that category, I am not going to fret over it. I actually loved a lot of these nominees, especially the Bessie actors, Finn Wittrock, and that entire Supporting Actress category, which might end up being one of the most difficult to predict. I am shocked at the Janet McTeer and Stephen Rea snubs, apparently The Honorable Woman wasn't as strong as we all thought, and still can't fathom how Grace of Monaco got in, but Nicole Kidman, the best part about that horrible production, didn't? Oh, and don't forget the exclusion of Michael Chiklis, an Emmy favorite. That felt bizarre to say the least.

There will be more on these categories, a ton of predictions, and a gut-reaction winner predictions list on your way. Stay Tuned!!!

The 67th Annual Primetime Emmy Award Nominations

Full list at www.emmys.com, more to come soon including reactions and first predictions!: 

Best Drama Series

Better Call Saul 

Downton Abbey

Game of Thrones

Homeland

House of Cards

Mad Men

Orange is the New Black

Best Comedy Series

Louie

Modern Family

Parks & Recreation 

Silicon Valley

Transparent

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Veep

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Kyle Chandler "Bloodline"

Jeff Daniels "The Newsroom"

Jon Hamm "Mad Men"

Bob Odenkirk "Better Call Saul"

Liev Schreiber "Ray Donovan" 

Kevin Spacey "House of Cards"

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes "Homeland"

Viola Davis "How to Get Away With Murder"

Taraji P. Henson "Empire"

Tatiana Maslany "Orphan Black"

Elisabeth Moss "Mad Men"

Robin Wright "House of Cards"

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson "black-ish"

Louis C.K. "Louie"

Don Cheadle "House of Lies"

Will Forte "The Last Man on Earth"

Matt LeBlanc "Episodes"

William H. Macy "Shameless"

Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent"

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Edie Falco "Nurse Jackie"

Lisa Kudrow "The Comeback"

Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"

Amy Poehler "Parks & Recreation"

Amy Schumer "Inside Amy Schumer"

Lily Tomlin "Grace & Frankie" 

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Jonathan Banks "Better Call Saul"

Jim Carter "Downton Abbey"

Alan Cumming "The Good Wife"

Peter Dinklage "Game of Thrones"

Michael Kelly "House of Cards"

Ben Mendelsohn "Bloodline"

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Uzo Aduba "Orange is the New Black" 

Christine Baranski "The Good Wife"

Emilia Clarke "Game of Thrones"
Joanne Froggatt "Downton Abbey"

Lena Heady "Game of Thrones" 

Christina Hendricks "Mad Men" 

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Andre Braugher "Brooklyn Nine-Nine"

Tituss Burgess "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt" 

Ty Burrell "Modern Family"

Adam Driver "Girls"

Tony Hale "Veep"

Keegan-Michael Key "Key & Peele"

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Mayim Bialik "The Big Bang Theory"

Julie Bowen "Modern Family"

Anna Chlumsky "Veep"

Gaby Hoffman "Transparent"

Allison Janney "Mom"

Jane Krakowski "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt" 

Kate McKinnon "Saturday Night Live"

Niecy Nash "Getting On"

Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Mel Brooks "The Comedians"

Louis C.K. "Louie"

Paul Giamatti "Inside Amy Schumer"

Bill Hader "Saturday Night Live"

Jon Hamm "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"  

Bradley Whitford "Transparent"

Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Pamela Adlon "Louie"

Elizabeth Banks "Modern Family"

Christine Baranski "The Big Bang Theory"

Joan Cusack "Shameless"

Tina Fey "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"

Gaby Hoffman "Girls"

Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

F. Murray Abraham "Homeland"

Alan Alda "The Blacklist"

Beau Bridges "Masters of Sex"

Reg E. Cathey "House of Cards"

Michael J. Fox "The Good Wife"

Pablo Schreiber "Orange is the New Black" 

Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Khandi Alexander "Scandal"

Rachel Broshnahan "House of Cards"

Allison Janney "Masters of Sex"

Margo Martindale "The Americans"

Diana Rigg "Game of Thrones"

Cicely Tyson "How to Get Away with Murder" 

Best Limited Series

American Crime

American Horror Story: Freak Show

The Honorable Woman

Olive Kitteridge

Wolf Hall

Best Television Movie

Agatha Christie's Poirot: Curtain, Poirot's Last Case

Bessie

Grace of Monaco

Hello Ladies: The Movie

Killing Jesus

Nightingale

Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries

Adrien Brody "Houdini"

Ricky Gervais "Derek: The Final Chapter"

Timothy Hutton "American Crime"

Richard Jenkins "Olive Kitteridge"

David Oyelowo "Nightingale"

Mark Rylance "Wolf Hall" 

Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries

Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Honorable Woman"

Felicity Huffman "American Crime"

Jessica Lange "American Horror Story: Freak Show"

Queen Latifah "Bessie"

Frances McDormand "Olive Kitteridge"

Emma Thompson "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street Live From Lincoln Center"

Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries

Richard Cabral "American Crime"

Damien Lewis "Wolf Hall"

Bill Murray "Olive Kitteridge"

Denis O'Hare "American Horror Story: Freak Show"

Michael Kenneth Williams "Bessie"

Finn Wittrock "American Horror Story: Freak Show"

Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries

Angela Bassett "American Horror Story: Freak Show"

Kathy Bates "American Horror Story: Freak Show"

Zoe Kazan "Olive Kitteridge"

Regina King "American Crime"

Mo'Nique "Bessie"

Sarah Paulson "American Horror Story: Freak Show"

Best Reality-Competition Program

The Amazing Race

Dancing With the Stars

Project Runway

So You Think You Can Dance

Top Chef 

The Voice

Best Reality Host

Tom Bergeron "Dancing With the Stars"

Anthony Bourdain "The Taste"

Cat Deeley "So You Think You Can Dance"

Tim Gunn and Heidi Klum "Project Runway"

Jane Lynch "Hollywood Game Night"

Best Variety Talk Series

The Colbert Report

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

Jimmy Kimmel Live

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

The Late Show with David Letterman

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

Best Variety Sketch Series

Drunk History

Inside Amy Schumer

Key & Peele

Portlandia

Saturday Night Live

2015 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Final List

So this is it! Tomorrow, the nominations will be announced at 11:30 here on the East Coast, and I am super excited to say the least. This has been a particularly brutal process picking the nominees this year, as there are simply too many good contenders to choose from. There are going to be so many surprises tomorrow morning, all of our predictions are either going to look great or be completely off. But that is why I love the Emmys. There is something exciting about their unpredictability. Here is my final, final, final list:

Best Drama Series
Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Empire
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Mad Men
Orange is the New Black

Best Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Louie
Modern Family
Silicon Valley
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep

Best Actor in a Drama Series
Jeff Daniels "The Newsroom"
Jon Hamm "Mad Men"
Terrence Howard "Better Call Saul"
Bob Odenkirk "Better Call Saul"
Clive Owen "The Knick"
Kevin Spacey "House of Cards"

Best Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Danes "Homeland"
Viola Davis "How to Get Away With Murder"
Michelle Dockery "Downton Abbey"
Taraji P. Henson "Empire"
Julianna Margulies "The Good Wife"
Robin Wright "House of Cards"

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Louis C.K. "Louie"
Billy Crystal "The Comedians"
Matt LeBlanc "Episodes"
William H. Macy "Shameless"
Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory"
Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent"

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Edie Falco "Nurse Jackie"
Jane Fonda "Grace and Frankie"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Amy Poehler "Parks & Recreation"
Amy Schumer "Inside Amy Schumer"
Lily Tomlin "Grace and Frankie"

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks "Better Call Saul"
Jim Carter "Downton Abbey"
Peter Dinklage "Game of Thrones"
Joe Morton "Scandal"
Mandy Patinkin "Homeland"
Jon Voight "Ray Donovan"

Best Supporting Actress in Drama Series
Uzo Aduba "Orange is the New Black"
Christine Baranski "The Good Wife"
Joanne Froggatt "Downton Abbey"
Lena Heady "Game of Thrones"
Christina Hendricks "Mad Men"
Maggie Smith "Downton Abbey"

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Fred Armisen "Portlandia"
Andre Braugher "Brooklyn Nine-Nine"
Tituss Burgess "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
Ty Burrell "Modern Family"
Jesse Tyler Ferguson "Modern Family"
Tony Hale "Veep"

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik "The Big Bang Theory"
Julie Bowen "Modern Family"
Anna Chlumsky "Veep"
Allison Janney "Mom"
Judith Light "Transparent"
Kate McKinnon "Saturday Night Live"

Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Dylan Baker "The Good Wife"
Andre Braugher "Law & Order: SVU"
Beau Bridges "Masters of Sex"
Michael J. Fox "The Good Wife"
David Hyde Pierce "The Good Wife"
Courtney B. Vance "Scandal"

Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Kate Burton "Scandal"
Allison Janney "Masters of Sex"
Margo Martindale "The Americans"
Diana Rigg "Game of Thrones"
Lois Smith "The Americans"
Cicely Tyson "Masters of Sex"

Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Steve Buscemi "Portlandia"
Louis C.K. "Louie"
Bill Hader "Saturday Night Live"
Jon Hamm "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
Nathan Lane "Modern Family"
Bradley Whitford "Transparent"

Best Made for Television Movie
Agatha Christie's Poirot: Curtain, Poirot's Last Case
Bessie
Derek: The Final Chapter
Killing Jesus
Nightingale

Best Limited Series
American Crime
American Horror Story: Freak Show
The Honourable Woman
Olive Kitteridge
Wolf Hall

Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series
Ricky Gervais "Derek: The Final Chapter"
Timothy Hutton "American Crime"
Richard Jenkins "Olive Kitteridge"
David Oyelowo "Nightingale"
Bill Paxton "Texas Rising"
Mark Rylance "Wolf Hall"

Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Honourable Woman"
Felicity Huffman "American Crime"
Queen Latifah "Bessie"
Jessica Lange "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Frances McDormand "Olive Kitteridge"
Frances O'Connor "The Missing"

Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Michael Chiklis "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Damien Lewis "Wolf Hall"
Bill Murray "Olive Kitteridge"
Jonathan Pryce "Wolf Hall"
Stephen Rea "The Honourable Woman"
Finn Wittrock "American Horror Story: Freak Show"

Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Angela Bassett "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Kathy Bates "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Janet McTeer "The Honourable Woman"
MoNique "Bessie"
Sarah Paulson "American Horror Story: Freak Show"
Susan Sarandon "The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe"

Best Reality-Competition Series
The Amazing Race
Dancing With the Stars
Project Runway
So You Think You Can Dance
Top Chef
The Voice

Best Reality Host
Tom Bergeron "Dancing With the Stars"
Anthony Bourdain "The Taste"
Carson Daly "The Voice"
Cat Deeley "So You Think You Can Dance"
Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn "Project Runway"
Jane Lynch "Hollywood Game Night"

Best Variety Series - Talk
The Colbert Report
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Real Time with Bill Maher
The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon

Best Variety Series - Sketch
Comedy Bang Bang
Inside Amy Schumer
Key and Peele
Portlandia
Saturday Night Live
The Soup

David O. Russell and Jennifer Lawrence Return in First Trailer for "Joy"

It looks like a David O. Russell to me: a great cast, a messy but entertaining blend of comedy and drama, and a dynamite performance from Jennifer Lawrence. In this short trailer alone, we can see that Lawrence has once again matched the audacity and energy of Russell's direction. I know that you should not judge a film my its poster/trailer, but I will say that I am excited for this one!:

2015 Kennedy Center Honorees

This is a way-early announcement from the Kennedy Center, and this year's selections total six, where normally there are only five. For the record, it is fine with me, as all six are worthy artists, and I will look forward to the ceremony this year, as I do every year. The Eagles and Carole King are staples in my house, George Lucas is a legend, and it is perfect timing for the upcoming Star Wars films, Rita Moreno and Cicely Tyson are dynamite acting legends, and Seiji Ozawa is a well-respected Japanese conductor. It is always one of the best nights of the year, and a true celebration of artistry. Once again, this year's selections are:

Eagles
Carole King
George Lucas
Rita Moreno
Seiji Ozawa
Cicely Tyson

The Ceremony will be held on December 6, 2015!

2015 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Series

2015 Nomination Predictions
Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Empire
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Mad Men
Orange is the New Black

Other Contenders - The Americans, Homeland, The Good Wife, The Affair, Masters of Sex, Sons of Anarchy, Justified, How to Get Away With Murder, The Walking Dead, Scandal, The Knick, The Newsroom, Ray Donovan, Outlander, Bloodline, The Blacklist, Madam Secretary, Parenthood, Mr. Selfridge, Orphan Black, Boardwalk Empire, Vikings, Penny Dreadful, Broadchurch, The Fall, Bates Motel, Grey's Anatomy, Black Sails, Power, Gotham, The Flash, Marvel's Daredevil, Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., Marvel's Agent Carter, The Leftovers, Rectify, 12 Monkeys, Halt and Catch Fire, Manhattan, Arrow, Blue Bloods, NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, CSI: Crime Scene Investigation, C.S.I: Cyber, Bones, Castle, The Bridge, Criminal Minds, Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., Law & Order: SVU, Elementary, Extant, Dallas, The Following, Girlfriends Guide to Divorce, Hell on Wheels, The Killing, Longmire, Major Crimes, The Mentalist, Nashville, The Mysteries of Laura, Person on Interest, The Royals, Scorpion, Sleepy Hollow, True Blood, TURN: Washington's Spies, Under the Dome

Commentary - So there are a few contenders here I think will easily return: House of Cards, Game of Thrones, Downton Abbey and Mad Men seem like safe bets. I also think that Orange is the New Black will make the crossover from Comedy to Drama seamlessly. It is too popular among these voters not to. So that is five slots ready to go. I also think that Emmy voters will go for Empire this year. I don't think it can win, but it is simply too big and too popular for them to ignore. Plus it reaches a diverse audience, and is beloved by critics and fans. That leaves one slot. The Americans won the CCTA, and I would love to see it finally get some Emmy recognition, but these voters almost completely ignored the first two remarkable seasons. Homeland had a resurgent forth season, and it once won this award. It could make a come back. The Good Wife should be among the ranks, but it looks like, despite the actors branch, voters have moved on. The Affair won the Globe, Masters of Sex is a brilliant, How to Get Away With Murder is a hit, and veteran shows like Boardwalk Empire, Justified, The Newsroom, Sons of Anarchy, The Walking Dead, Parenthood, Orphan Black, and Vikings should not be discounted.  Finally, I tihnk that newcomers Outlander and Bloodline are on the edge of making it in as well. But I think that the Breaking Bad love is still strong. With a good showing at the CCTAs, and a lot of nostalgia makes me think that the seventh slot will instead go to AMC's newest hit Better Call Saul. As always, we'll have to wait and see...

2015 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Best Comedy Series

2015 Nomination Predictions
The Big Bang Theory
Louie
Modern Family
Silicon Valley
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep

Other Contenders - Parks & Recreation, Grace and Frankie, black-ish, The Comedians, Mom, The Last Man on Earth, Jane the Virgin, Girls, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, You're the Worst, Togetherness, The Comeback, New Girl, The Mindy Project, Nurse Jackie, House of Lies, Episodes, Broad City, Alpha House, Shameless, Fresh Off the Boat, Glee, The Goldbergs, The Middle, Two and a Half Men, 2 Broke Girls, Mike & Molly, Galavant, The Odd Couple, The McCarthys, Getting On, Younger, Looking, Mozart in the Jungle, HAPPYish, Married, Community, Cristela, Devious Maids, Last Man Standing, The League, Marry Me, Baby Daddy, Melissa & Joey, Real Husbands of Hollywood

Commentary - So this year, the Emmys have decided to expand their top two categories to seven total nominees (with more potentially with that percentage rule). I see six nominees clearly, and would be surprised if they didn't make the cut. Modern Family is a on a roll, and honestly, can anything beat it? I'm not sure. Veep's fourth season wasn't its best, but it has continued to improve its Emmy fortunes each year. Louie's season was abrupt to say the least, but I expect it to return, as will The Big Bang Theory, honestly, it is too popular for voters to ignore. That leaves the Orange is the New Black sixth slot, and we all know that it is going to Transparent, the new hit of the season, which won the Golden Globe. But then there is the seventh slot. It is not that there are not plenty of worthy contenders to fill in there, I just don't know which one voters will rally behind. There are plenty of veteran projects like Parks & Recreation, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Girls, Mom, House of Lies, Nurse Jackie, Episodes, Shameless, Glee, Mike & Molly, and the list goes on. There are the smaller, but potent contenders like Broad City, You're the Worst, Togetherness, The Comeback, Getting On, Community, Younger, etc. Then there are the new hits, some of which are probably the most likely to break up the predictions: black-ish, The Comedians, Grace and Frankie, The Last Man on Earth, Jane the Virgin, maybe even Fresh Off the Boat. Of the bunch it is black-ish (Modern Family vibe, great performances), Jane the Virgin (critical favorite), Grace and Frankie (legendary cast despite middling reviews), and The Comedians (FX, Billy Crystal, got better as the season went on), that seem like the most likely, along with maybe Parks & Recreation's final season that can beat out my sixth slot. I am going with Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. It is a popular Netflix program, well-liked among fans and critics, and has a secret weapon in their corner: Tina Fey. She is a writer/producer/guest star on the show, and an Emmy magnet. It is not a solid pick, I don't have it in a lot of other categories, but then again, none of the shows I have as the potential seventh slot seem to appear in a lot of other categories as well. It will be interesting to see who manages to break through.

The 7th Annual Awards Psychic Halfway Award Winners

Best Picture
Winner - Inside Out
Runners Up - Mad Max: Fury Road, Love & Mercy, and Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Commentary - Pixar has had a few rough years. Cars 2 was a qualified mess, Brave did remarkably well at the box office, and won the Oscar, but was still considered a lesser effort, and Monsters University failed to make it into the Oscar Animated Feature top five. But after several years of creative rebuilding, Pixar is back and better than ever with their triumphant Inside Out. A film for all ages, all makes, all creeds, Inside Out is a wondrous, creative, exciting, and entertaining modern masterpiece that hopefully will bring animation back to the Oscar Best Picture race. Furthermore, Inside Out has rebooted one of Hollywood's greatest studios, who I hope will continue to create some of the best that American film has to offer.

Best Director
Winner - George Miller "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Runners Up - Pete Docter "Inside Out"
Commentary - Pete Docter was a great choice, but there was another great film in the first half of the year (there were actually several), and that was George Miller's revisionist version of Mad Max: Fury Road. It was a stunning remake that finally got to see one of the most visionary directors of all time make the film he always wanted to make. It was brilliantly constructed, politically astute, and reminded us that George Miller is a master of the craft.

Best Actor
Winner - (TIE) John Cusack and Paul Dano "Love & Mercy"
Runners Up - Thomas Mann "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl" and Shameik Moore "Dope"
Commentary - Love & Mercy was right behind those two aforementioned films in terms of its quality, but mostly because of two incredible performances at its center. Now by the time the Oscars roll around one of them will probably be in supporting so as to increase their chances of awards possibilities. But this is really a dual leading role to tell the story of Brian Wilson. Dano's talent was no surprise to me, he has been churning out great roles for a decade now. But it has been awhile since we have seen this level of greatness from John Cusack, and it was a welcomed comeback. Combined, we see the growth of the man and the talent of Brian Wilson, and each actor makes the character there own to creative a beautiful portrayal.

Best Actress
Winner - Charlize Theron "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Runners Up - Melissa McCarthy "Spy" and Juliette Binoche "Clouds of Sils Maria"
Commentary - I love me some Melissa McCarthy, and think that Spy is the first lead role that she had that truly showed just how talented she is as an actress and a comedienne. But no one so far this year could match the power of Charlize Theron. Going into Mad Max, no one knew that Miller was going to take such a feminist turn, that it would be Theron, not Tom Hardy, that would be the real lead. But that is how everything turned out and Theron, as she has done so many times before, commanded the screen with a presence that few modern film stars can. I just hope that the action/sci-fi elements of the film don't keep Theron from another Oscar nomination. I can guarantee you that when the end of the year rolls around there will be few performances that will match hers.

Best Supporting Actor
Winner - Oscar Isaac "Ex Machina"
Runners Up - Samuel L. Jackson "Kingsman: The Secret Service", and "Avengers: Age of Ultron"
Commentary - A weak category so far this year, but a perfect opportunity to reward an up and coming actor that I admire greatly, in a great genre role. Between Inside Llewyn Davis and A Most Violent Year, Oscar Isaac has proven himself to be one of our finest actors working today, and Ex Machina, a weird, and yet intriguing sci-fi thriller is yet another great performance from a well-respected new talent.

Best Supporting Actress
Winner - Phyllis Smith "Inside Out"
Runners Up - Kristen Stewart "Clouds of Sils Maria", Elizabeth Banks "Love & Mercy", and Rose Byrne "Spy"
Commentary - This was probably the toughest category so far. Elizabeth Banks adds a lot of soul to Love & Mercy, Rose Byrne is a comedic genius in Spy, and Kristen Stewart proved she can actually act in Clouds of Sils Maria. But in the end, I could not pass up the opportunity to reward the great voice work of Phyllis Smith. Despite a A-list cast including the likes of Bill Hader, Amy Poehler, and Mindy Kaling it is Smith, as Sadness, that completely steals the show. There have been a few instances in the history of animated film where an actor was so compelling with just their voice that they deserved an Oscar nomination. I think that Phyllis Smith may just join that list.

Best Screenplay
Winner - Pete Docter, Ronaldo Del Carmen, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley "Inside Out"
Runner Up - Jesse Andrews "Me and Earl and the Dying Girl"
Commentary - Inside Out is a feat of animation, of voice acting, but most importantly, it is the most creative, unique, and original film to hit the big screen in a long time. The script, but Pete Docter and his team have crafted a beautiful story that is inventive and bright, but also emotional and deep. It takes a brilliant script to pull all of that off.

Best Animated Feature
Winner - Inside Out
Runners Up - Honestly, the other two were place holders, it was a one-way race.
Commentary - See Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Screenplay.

Best Ensemble
Winner - Spy
Runners Up - Inside Out and Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Commentary - I wanted to honor Spy, a great comedy that should be in the awards discussion as we move into the fall. But I couldn't seem to find the place to do so. Then I looked at the cast: Melissa McCarthy, Rose Byrne, Jason Statham, Jude Law, Allison Janney, and countless other veteran character actors. That is why I loved Spy so much. Like other Paul Feig films as of late, the whole thing hinges on the actors, and whether they can pull it off. This group did so with gusto, and proved that Feig is quickly becoming one of the best ensemble directors working today. He puts together great actors and lets them go to work. The results, so far, have been wonderful.

2015 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Best Actor in a Drama Series

2015 Nomination Predictions
Kyle Chandler "Bloodline"
Jeff Daniels "The Newsroom"
Jon Hamm "Mad Men"
Terrence Howard "Empire"
Bob Odenkirk "Better Call Saul"
Kevin Spacey "House of Cards"

Other Contenders - Clive Owen "The Knick", Matthew Rhys "The Americans", Hugh Bonneville "Downton Abbey", James Spader "The Blacklist", Steve Buscemi "Boardwalk Empire", Michael Sheen "Masters of Sex", Timothy Olyphant "Justified", Charlie Hunnam "Sons of Anarchy", Lee Pace "Halt and Catch Fire", Andrew Lincoln "TheWalking Dead", David Tennant "Broadchurch", Travis Fimmel "Vikings", Liev Schreiber "Ray Donovan", Jeremy Piven "Mr. Selfridge", Freddie Highmore "Bates Motel", Charlie Cox "Daredevil", Ben McKenzie "Gotham", Timothy Dalton "Penny Dreadful", Josh Hartnett "Penny Dreadful", Justin Theroux "The Leftovers", Jamie Bell "TURN", Aden Young "Rectify", John Benjamin Hickey "Manhattan", Patrick J. Adams "Suits", Simon Baker "The Mentalist", Kevin Bacon "The Following", Demian Bichir "The Bridge", Matt Bomer "White Collar", Ted Danson "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation", Grant Gustin "The Flash", Taye Diggs "Murder in the First", Michael Emerson "Person of Interest", Clark Gregg "Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.", Aaron Stanford "12 Monkeys"

Commentary - After the chaos of Best Actress, this race feels a bit more tame, despite some stiff competition among the ranks. With Bryan Cranston, Matthew McConaughey, and Bryan Cranston all gone from this race, there is a huge void to fill. I fully expect Jeff Daniels to return as well, despite a muted third and final season for The Newsroom. He is a well-liked actor, a previous winner, and if he could beat out some of the competition he did the last two season to be nominated and win, I don't see how he doesn't get in this year. Bob Odenkirk won the CCTA, and fills like the perfect fit to fill in the Bryan Cranston slot. That still leaves two. Terrence Howard was a force on Empire this season, the biggest hit of the year. He held his own against Taraji P. Henson, and I think both will be rewarded for their work. Finally, I know that I have left a lot of the cast from Bloodline out of the ranks, but as I said in a previous post, I think that if anyone from the cast can get in it is Kyle Chandler. Clive Owen is right there for The Knick, Matthew Rhys should be in the conversation, James Spader could make an Emmy comeback for a stellar season 2 of The Blacklist, Michael Sheen, Steve Buscemi, Timothy Olyphant, and Travis Fimmel are all ones to watch for. But I think that Emmy favorite Kyle Chandler overcomes the dying buzz for his show and grabs a slot in this race.

2015 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Best Actress in a Drama Series

2015 Nomination Predictions
Claire Danes "Homeland"
Viola Davis "How to Get Away With Murder"
Taraji P. Henson "Empire"
Julianna Margulies "The Good Wife"
Taylor Schilling "Orange is the New Black"
Robin Wright "House of Cards"

Other Contenders - Kerry Washington "Scandal", Michelle Dockery "Downton Abbey", Lizzy Caplan "Masters of Sex", Ruth Wilson "The Affair", Elisabeth Moss "Mad Men", Tatiana Maslany "Orphan Black", Vera Farmiga "Bates' Motel", Caitriona Balfe "Outlander", Tea Leoni "Madam Secretary", Patricia Arquette "CSI: Cyber", Gillian Anderson "The Fall", Olivia Colman "Broadchurch", Keri Russell "The Americans", Mariska Hargitay "Law & Order: SVU", Katey Segal "Sons of Anarchy", Megan Boone "The Blacklist", Elizabeth McGovern "Downton Abbey", Ellen Pompeo "Grey's Anatomy", Eva Green "Penny Dreadful", Connie Britton "Nashville", Hayley Atwell "Agent Carter", Mirelle Enos "The Killing", Olivia Williams "Manhattan", Halle Berry "Extant", Ginnifer Goodwin "Once Upon a Time", Katherine Heigl "State of Affairs", Elizabeth Hurley "The Royals", Diane Kruger "The Bridge", Juliette Lewis "Secrets & Lies", Mary McDonnell "Major Crimes", Debra Messing "The Mysteries of Laura", Anna Paquin "True Blood", Amanda Schull "12 Monkeys", Gabrielle Union "Being Mary Jane"

Commentary - It is interesting to see this dichotomy between film and television. While the Oscars female acting categories have been lean in recent years, lacking in diversity, and a microcosm of the racist and sexist film industry as a whole, with few too quality roles for women, the Emmys have been booming in those same races with so many contenders it is hard to choose. Television is thriving and continuing to rise by embracing new technologies, and by embracing the diversity of the country. Everyone watches television, so matter who or what you are, there are probably multiple programs out there that appeal to you as a viewer. And this year, there is no better place to look to prove this than the three Best Actress races at this year's Emmys. The nominees are going to be talented, diverse, and far too many great performances are going to be left out. Not because the Emmy voters are stuck in their ways or dumb (they are a bit stuck, but still far more inclusive than their film counterparts), but because there is simply too much talent on their ballots. For example, between Viola Davis and Taraji P. Henson, there is a good chance that, for the first time, an African-American actresses wins this award. I had initially also included Kerry Washington in that lineup, and think that she is stronger than most assume, but like I said, this is a brutal category, and these two new contenders are probably going to knock out several veterans. That includes Elisabeth Moss (who was left off last year), Vera Farmiga (same although she has a great set of episodes this season), Lizzy Caplan (a surprise nominee last year, but a bit too subtle up against powerhouse performances), and Michelle Dockery (the one I am most hesitant about leaving out. Let's not forget that voters love love love love love Downton Abbey). I don't think it is going to be a complete sweep of the category, as I am still including Danes, Margulies, and Wright, although this year no one is safe. The final slot is particularly tricky and as I am typing this Michelle Dockery is inching back into that slot. It could be Ruth Wilson, who won the Globe, but whose buzz has faded over the last six months. It could be one of those aforementioned veterans looking to get back in, it could even be newcomers to the race like recent Oscar winner Patricia Arquette, Tea Leoni, Eva Green, Olivia Williams, Olivia Coleman, or Caitriona Balfe. But I think it is Taylor Schilling who is going to make the cut. Voters loved Orange is the New Black on the comedy side, and it is a far more dramatic than it is humorous, and Schilling had a particularly good season with some really great dramatic moments. I think that they love the show and her enough for her to beat out some stiff competition. But watch out for Michelle Dockery, she is stronger than you think.

2015 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

2015 Nomination Predictions
Jonathan Banks "Better Call Saul"
Jim Carter "Downton Abbey"
Peter Dinklage "Game of Thrones"
Joe Morton "Scandal"
Mandy Patinkin "Homeland"
Jon Voight "Ray Donovan"

Other Contenders - Ben Mendelsohn "Bloodline", Michael Kelly "House of Cards", Kit Harington "Game of Thrones", Alan Cumming "The Good Wife", Matt Czuchry "The Good Wife", Chris Noth "The Good Wife", John Slattery "Mad Men", Michael McKean "Better Call Saul", Walton Goggins "Justified", Christopher Eccleston "The Leftovers", Tobias Menzies "Outlander", Sam Elliott "Justified", Nikolaj Coster-Waldau "Game of Thrones", Norman Reedus "The Walking Dead", Frank Langella "The Americans", Rob-James Collier "Downton Abbey", Tony Goldwyn "Scandal", Jeff Perry "Scandal", Rupert Friend "Homeland", Andre Holland "The Knick", Jussie Smollet "Empire", Trai Byers "Empire", Bryshere Y. Gray "Empire", Bruce Greenwood "Mad Men", Vincent Kartheiser "Mad Men", Norbert Leo Butz "Bloodline", Noah Emmerich "The Americans", Jeffrey Wright "Boardwalk Empire", Mahershala Ali "House of Cards", James D'Arcy "Broadchurch", Teddy Sears "Masters of Sex", Tracey Letts "Homeland", Hank Azaria "Ray Donovan", Max Burkholder "Parenthood", Ray Romano "Parenthood", Sam Jaegar "Parenthood", Miles Heizer "Parenthood", Peter Krause "Parenthood", Craig T. Nelson "Parenthood", Dax Shepard "Parenthood", Patrick Dempsey "Grey's Anatomy", Justin Chambers "Grey's Anatomy", Kevin McKidd "Grey's Anatomy", James Pickens Jr. "Grey's Anatomy", Tim Daly "Madam Secretary", Alfred Enoch "How to Get Away With Murder", Jack Falahee "How to Get Away With Murder", Michael Gambon "Fortitude", Jesse L. Martin "The Flash", William Moseley "The Royals"

Commentary - This is a category that could get a lot of shakeup, but feels like it won't. I see five slots that feel like they are good to go, or at least, I would not bet against. Jonathan Banks won the CCTA for Better Call Saul, and there is a good reason. He is fantastic, was nominated in the guest category for this character, and seems like the one newcomer that is a lock. Then there are the four veterans that seem like safe to return: Jim Carter (someone who continues to get in despite a lot of folks going against him, Peter Dinklage (could win a second one with this season), Mandy Patinkin (The heart and soul of Homeland's revived fourth season), and Jon Voight (he's Jon Voight). That leaves one slot, and I'm not sure where to go with it. Ben Mendelsohn seemed like a safe bet, but is anyone talking about Bloodline? Michael Kelly had his best season, but there is a lot of subtly (less this year I know) to the role. Kit Harington had a great season on Game of Thrones, but I'm not sure two of their guys can get in. I would also throw Christopher Eccleston, Sam Elliott, Frank Langella, Andre Holland, and the guys from Mad Men and The Good Wife into the mix. But in the last slot I am going with last year's Guest Actor winner, who was forced to bump up into supporting due to the new rule changes. I am of course talking about Joe Morton. There is a reason that he won last year, and it is because he is a dominating force on Scandal. He would have been a shoo-in for a nod in Guest, but I think he has enough material, makes enough of an impact, and is clearly a well-liked veteran among voters to make the jump to supporting.

2015 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

2015 Emmy Nomination Predictions
Uzo Aduba "Orange is the New Black"
Christine Baranski "The Big Bang Theory"
Lena Heady "Game of Thrones"
Christina Hendricks "Mad Men"
Maggie Smith "Downton Abbey"
Lorraine Touissant "Orange is the New Black"

Other Contenders - Joanne Froggatt "Downton Abbey", Sissy Spacek "Bloodline", Kate Mulgrew "Orange is the New Black", Laverne Cox "Orange is the New Black", Danielle Brooks "Orange is the New Black", Emilia Clarke "Game of Thrones", Carrie Coon "The Leftovers", Joelle Carter "Justified", Maura Tierney "The Affair", Jane Fonda "The Newsroom", Molly Parker "House of Cards", Linda Cardellini "Bloodline", Chloe Sevigny "Bloodline", Kelly MacDonald "Boardwalk Empire", Maisie Williams "Game of Thrones", Archie Panjabi "The Good Wife", January Jones "Mad Men", Bellamy Young "Scandal", Melissa McBride "The Walking Dead", Laura Carmichael "Downton Abbey", Lily James "Downton Abbey", Katheryn Winnick "Vikings", Jada Pinkett Smith "Gotham", Alfre Woodard "State of Affairs", Geena Davis "Grey's Anatomy", Chandra Wilson "Grey's Anatomy", Sara Ramirez "Grey's Anatomy", Sarah Drew "Grey's Anatomy", Jessica Capshaw "Grey's Anatomy", Charlotte Rampling "Broadchurch", Monica Potter "Parenthood", Mae Whitman "Parenthood", Bonnie Bedelia "Parenthood", Lauren Graham "Parenthood", Erika Christensen "Parenthood", Joy Bryant "Parenthood", Ann Dowd "The Leftovers", Amy Brenneman "The Leftovers", Caitlin FitzGerald "Masters of Sex", Annaleigh Ashford "Masters of Sex", Betsy Brandt "Masters of Sex", Kim Dickens "House of Cards", Eve Hewson "The Knick", Aja Naomi King "How to Get Away With Murder", Annet Mahendru "The Americans", Patina Miller "Madam Secretary", Liza Weil "How to Get Away With Murder"

Commentary - Maggie Smith is a shoo-in, Christina Hendricks is a favorite, and Christine Baranski better get in this year for her work on The Good Wife. I think these three favorites are safe bets to return, although this year, as is the case the last several, the acting categories are so stacked there are few 100% nominations anymore. That leaves three slots, and they are highly competitive. By stacking all of the Orange is the New Black crew into Supporting, and switching to Drama from comedy, has throne their Emmy fortunes into a whirlwind. I don't know if more than one can make it (although I wouldn't be surprised if they get more), and that one is going to be tough. Kate Mulgrew got in for Supporting on the Comedy side, but this year with os much internal competition, I think two performers are going to jump ahead of her and of Laverne Cox. Uzo Aduba won on the Comedy side because Crazy Eyes was the one funny part of the show. I don't know if she is as safe as most people assume in the jump to Drama. She won the SAG (comedy SAG), and is announcing the nominees. Plus, she is so popular right now as an actress on the rise. So I think she gets in. But I don't know how you leave out Lorraine Touissant (who did win the CCTA this year). Any fan of the show should recognize her incredible arc this season, and the fact that she was the best part of Season 2. I think that she gets rewarded for it. Finally, after being nominated last year, and having yet another knock-em-dead season on Game of Thrones, I think that Lena Heady will return to the race. There is only one problem with this lineup. It leaves out Joanne Froggatt and Sissy Spacek. Spacek is a legend, with several Emmy nominations. But is Bloodline getting enough buzz? Maybe for an Emmy magnet like Kyle Chandler, but this race could be tougher for Spacek. And Joanne Froggatt is the one that concerns me. I predicted her last year when so many weren't because I knew that the older voters of the Academy love Downton Abbey. They still do, and I expect it to do well, but can Froggatt and Dockery continue to hold on with this onslaught of new contenders? Maybe, but for now I am hesitantly leaving her out. Previous nominee Emilia Clarke, and the rest of the Orange is the New Black cast are huge contenders. Also throw in the likes of Jane Fonda, Carrie Coon, Joelle Carter, Maura Tierney, Archie Panjabi, Bellamy Young, and Katheryn Winnick, and this race is one, like so many this year, that could have some surprise nominees come Thursday morning.

2015 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Best Actor in a Comedy Series

2015 Emmy Nomination Predictions
Louis C.K. "Louie"
Billy Crystal "The Comedians"
Matt LeBlanc "Episodes"
William H. Macy "Shameless"
Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory"
Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent"

Other Contenders - Don Cheadle "House of Lies", Thomas Middleditch "Silicon Valley", Anthony Anderson "black-ish", Will Forte "The Last Man on Earth", Jon Cryer "Two and a Half Men", Andy Samberg "Brooklyn Nine-Nine", Johnny Galecki "The Big Bang Theory", Matthew Perry "The Odd Couple", Thomas Lennon "The Odd Couple", Chris Messina "The Mindy Project", Gael Garcia Bernal "Mozart in the Jungle", John Goodman "Alpha House", Adam Scott "Parks and Recreation", Jonathan Groff "Looking", Steve Coogan "HAPPYish", Billy Gardell "Mike & Molly", Chris Geere "You're the Worst", Jay Baruchel "Man Seeking Woman", Tim Allen "Last Man Standing", Kevin Daniels "Sirens", Nat Faxon "Married", Jeff Garlin "The Goldbergs", Kevin Hart "Real Husbands of Hollywood", Joel McHale "Community"

Commentary - For the first time in a long time, Emmy voters have a chance to shake up this category, and unfortunately, I think that despite a few changes, a lot of folks are going to remain intact. I fully expect Louis C.K. and Jim Parsons to return, and after getting in last year and winning the SAG, William H. Macy seems like a safe bet as well. We know that Jeffrey Tambor is a potent threat for the win, and a nomination seems all but certain for his role in Transparent. That leaves those two slots that have been filled in by Don Cheadle and Matt LeBlanc. I don't know if both drop out this year, although it would be refreshing to see two new guys in those positions. This is tough, but I think that one of them is going to be replaced. Don Cheadle is the movie star and Oscar nominee, and LeBlanc is the television star, beloved Emmy favorite for now two shows. I think LeBlanc is favored here, although he is weak. The Cheadle slot will probably go to the likes of Billy Crystal, a beloved comedian who is a personal favorite of mine, but is in a show that is decent at best, and not that great at worst. I would love to see the likes of Anthony Anderson (simply brilliant in black-ish), Thomas Middleditch (a real threat as Silicon Valley seems on the rise), Will Forte (I hated his character, but he played it well), Andy Samberg (seriously, how is he not an shoo-in along with Anderson?), and Adam Scott (it is the last season, nominated for gods-sake!). But I would be hard pressed to pick any of them over a legend like Crystal, or the perennial favorites like LeBlanc and Cheadle. I hope I am wrong by the way, and I hope Emmy voters get creative come July 16th.

2015 Emmy Nomination Predictions: Best Actress in a Comedy Series

2015 Nomination Predictions
Edie Falco "Nurse Jackie"
Jane Fonda "Grace and Frankie"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep
Melissa McCarthy "Mike & Molly"
Amy Poehler "Parks & Recreation"
Lily Tomlin "Grace and Frankie"

Other Contenders - Amy Schumer "Inside Amy Schumer", Gina Rodriguez "Jane the Virgin", Lisa Kudrow "The Comeback", Lena Dunham "Girls", Ellie Kemper "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt", Anna Faris "Mom", Patricia Heaton "The Middle", Tracee Ellis-Ross "black-ish", Zooey  Deschanel "New Girl", Mindy Kaling "The Mindy Project", Constance Wu "Fresh Off the Boat", Kristen Schaal "The Last Man on Earth", Emmy Rossum "Shameless", Aya Cash "You're The Worst", Beth Behrs "2 Broke Girls", Kat Dennings "2 Broke Girls", Courtney Cox "Cougar Town", Minnie Driver "About a Boy", Sutton Foster "Younger", Judy Greer "Married", Ilana Glazer "Broad City", Abbi Jacobson "Broad City", Laurie Metcalf "Getting On", Lea Michele "Glee", Ashley Rickards "Awkward", Casey Wilson "Marry Me"

Commentary - There are about eleven women that I think are fighting for six slots, and that doesn't include Tracee Ellis-Ross, Constance Wu, Zooey Deschanel, Mindy Kaling, Emmy Rossum, Anna Faris, or Kristen Schaal, all of whom are still worthy of our attention. Lena Dunham has yet to miss out for Girls, but there just seems like too much competition. Lisa Kudrow got in for The Comeback the first time around, and I hope she manages it again, but this time the competition might be too much for the underdog show. Then there are the new contenders: Ellie Kemper, Gina Rodriguez, and Amy Schumer. There is a scenario, where three of my predictions (Tomlin, Fonda, and McCarthy) are left out for these three newcomers. It is highly plausible, and would make a lot of critics happy. But going up against that aforementioned trio of actresses is a tall order. I know that Grace and Frankie has got mixed reviews, but Netflix is pushing hard for the show, both are recent nominees/winners, and both are acting legends beloved in this industry. I could see Tomlin getting in and Fonda being left out based on the types of performances, but I think they will come as a packaged deal. And McCarthy, after being left off, managed to come back into the race. And she had a huge hit this summer with Spy, and is probably very much on the voters radar. That leaves the three veterans: Louis-Dreyfus, Poehler, and Falco. Poehler and Falco are a bit at risk due to the age of their shows, but both are beloved by voters, and have a lot of sentiment helping them as both are in their final seasons (and both final seasons were good). And if Julia Louis-Dreyfus doesn't get nominated, they need to recount.