Best Director of a Play
Will Win - Tim Carroll "Twelfth Night"
Could Win - John Tiffany "The Glass Menagerie"
Commentary - This one is tough to predict. Tim Carroll helped pulled two major productions together in one show, and, according to reviews really brought Shakespeare to life on stage. But he is a newcomer to the field, and so they may not be comfortable enough to reward him up against other contenders such as John Tiffany, who one recently for Once. This is really a two-way race, but I think they will lean towards Carroll.
Best Director of a Musical
Will Win - Darko Tresnjak "Gentleman's Guide to Murder"
Could Win - Michael Mayer "Hedwig and the Angry Inch"
Commentary - Most likely Gentleman's Guide to Murder and Hedwig and the Angry Inch will win the top two musical categories. That means that there is a battle brewing in the direction category. Michael Mayer has brought a lot of energy to Hedwig, and is a previous Tony winner and has a storied awards history. But a lot of the focus of this revival has been thrown toward Neil Patrick Harris. Plus he is up against the Best Musical front runner Gentleman's Guide to Murder, directed by Darko Tresnjak. It is his first nomination, but I think he will pull it off.