Best Book of a Musical
Will Win - Robert L. Freedman "A Gentleman's Guide to Murder"
Could Win - Woody Allen "Bullets Over Broadway" or Douglas McGrath "Beautiful: The Carole King Musical"
Commentary - When I heard that Woody Allen, the New York legend, was coming to Broadway with an adaptation of his best films, the first thing I thought of was this Tony category. Now don't get me wrong, Woody could still easily win this, simply because of his popularity. But the production premiered to lackluster reviews, and overall it did not really register with Tony voters. I think this paves the way for Gentleman's Guide to Murder, the odds-on favorite to take the top prize, to take this one along the way as part of its total haul.
Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Will Win - Jason Robert Brown "The Bridges of Madison County"
Could Win - Steven Lutvak and Robert L. Freedman "A Gentleman's Guide to Murder"
Commentary - This, unlike the book race, is a bit of a tight one, and I am going out on a limb here, and also kind of contradicting myself. This is the first major production for the Gentleman's Guide to Murder duo, but it is the front runner for Best Musical (alas my argument for Book above). But they are going up against an extremely popular composer on Broadway Jason Robert Brown, who has a Tony Award, and a plethora of nominations under his belt. And the music apparently was the best part about the production. This may be a long shot, and maybe one of the ones I change before my final list. But for now, I am sticking with the beloved veteran.