Tuesday, November 10, 2009

First Golden Globe Predictions

The Globes, to me at least, are a little lighter, a little more fun, especially with Ricky Gervais this year, and splitting along genre lines allows for honoring of people Oscar sometimes ignores. However, with 10 nominees this year, the Globes could play a bigger role as a precursor, and may even be the boost for some movie to become a surprise nominee. Here are my early predictions:

Best Picture Drama:
Precious: Based on the novel PUSH by Sapphire
Up in the Air
The Lovely Bones
Inglourious Basterds
Alternates: Sherlock Holmes, An Education, The Hurt Locker, A Serious Man, A Single Man, Bright Star, Avatar.
Explanation: The Globes like Big Movies...period. So smaller movies like The Hurt Locker and An Education, who I think will get Oscar nods, will miss out at the Globes. Inglorious Basterds might confuse some, but the Globes like Tarantino, and I think they give him a nom this year.

Best Picture Comedy:
Julie & Julia
It's Complicated...
The Hangover
In the Loop
Alternates: (500) Days of Summer, Away We Go, The Informant!
Explanation: I'm probably going to regret excluding (500) Days of Summer, but it's only the first predictions. The two Meryl movies, I think, are going to get in, one we know got good reviews, and the other one just seems like a Globe-esque movie (Big names, potenital hit, etc.), plus they love Meryl Streep. Nine is in unless it just completely bombs. I'm going with In the Loop because last year they went for another obscure British comedy In Bruges, and this feels like a similar case.

Best Actor - Drama
Jeff Bridges "Crazy Heart"
Morgan Freeman "Invictus"
Johnny Depp "Public Enemies"
Colin Firth "A Single Man"
George Clooney "Up in the Air"
Alternates: Jeremy Renner "The Hurt Locker" Michael Stuhlbarg "A Serious Man".
Explanation: Unless I'm completely wrong about their love of The Hurt Locker, I think the 5 biggest names in the race will get the nods.

Best Actress - Drama
Carey Mulligan "An Education"
Helen Mirren "The Last Station"
Abbie Cornish "Bright Star"
Gabby Sidibe "Precious"
Saoirse Ronan "The Lovely Bones"
Alternates: Michelle Pfeifer "Cheri", Audrey Tatou "Coco Before Chanel", Penelope Cruz "Broken Embraces"
Explanation: With big names like Hillary Swank falling fast, these five feel like the best bets, although I wouldn't count out the popularity of Penelope Cruz.

Best Actor - Comedy
Daniel Day-Lewis "Nine"
Matt Damon "The Informant!"
Sacha Baron Cohen "Bruno"
Peter Capaldi "In the Loop"
Joseph Gordon-Levitt "(500) Days of Summer"
Alternates: Philip Seymour Hoffman "Pirate Radio"
Explanation: If Nine is good, Day-Lewis is in. The rest are just based on popularity. The Bruno nod might surprise, but the last time he did this, he won. I really hope we see a Colin Farrell win with Peter Capaldi, but he'll have to get nominated first.

Best Actress - Comedy
Meryl Streep "Julie & Julia"
Meryl Streep "It's Complicated"
Marion Cotillard "Nine"
Maya Rudolph "Away We Go"
Zooey Deschanel "(500) Days of Summer"
Alternates: Emma Thompson "Pirate Radio", Sandra Bullock "The Proposal"
Explanation: With all of the Nine women going supporting, this race is harder to predict than I thought. Yes, the Globes love Meryl that much, and I think they will give her both nominations. The others are critics darlings.

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz "Inglourious Basterds"
Stanley Tucci "The Lovely Bones" or "Julie & Julia"
Alfred Molina "An Education"
Matt Damon "Invictus"
Christopher Plummer "The Last Station"
Alternates: Anthony Mackie "The Hurt Locker", Christian McKay "Me and Orson Welles".
Explanations: These are my predicts for the Oscar, so I'm not going to change them all of the sudden. I think there could be some surprises, I just haven't thought of any at this point.

Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique "Precious"
Judi Dench "Nine''
Penelope Cruz "Nine"
Julianne Moore "A Single Man"
Melanie Laurent "Inglorious Basterds"
Alternates: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick "Up in the Air", Susan Sarandon "The Lovely Bones"
Explanations: I'm still sticking with my current Oscar predicts, but I think this category could be different at the Globes. The Up in the Air girls could easily get in, but I think they will like Nine better than Up in the Air cause they love musicals, and somehow vote splitting excludes them both, once again, with the Oscars I don't think this will happen. The Melanie Laurent inclusion maybe be shocking, but Tarantino has gotten acting noms with Kill Bill which didn't even get considered by the Academy. With Basterds doing better in the race than the other two, I think we could see this shocker.

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