Will Win - Allison Tolman "Fargo"
Should Win - Allison Tolman "Fargo"
Could Win - Julia Roberts "The Normal Heart", Ellen Burstyn "Flowers in the Attic", or Kathy Bates "American Horror Story: Coven"
Commentary - This is one of the most brutal races to predict, and honestly, any of these women could win this award, they are all that damn good. We can probably count out Frances Conroy based on screen time alone. And while I personally loved Angela Bassett in Coven, she doesn't get quite the material that her co-star Kathy Bates does. If any of the Coven women are going to win, it is going to be Bates, who has the best material of the bunch. Many people are predicting Julia Roberts to win, and honestly, I was up until today. She is in The Normal Heart, which looks to really sweep this year's Emmys, and she is an Oscar-winning icon that does not jump down to television often. We know that Emmy voters love their movie stars, and after her triumphant return to the screen, and the Oscar fold with August: Osage County, she is certainly on voters' minds. But to be honest, while his perfectly fine in The Normal Heart, it is nothing special, and certainly no where near her finest work. Ellen Burstyn is the wild card here. She won last year (robbing the great Sarah Paulson!) and could easily repeat, because she is simply delicious in Flowers in the Attic. The production as a whole was nothing to sneeze at it, but damn she lit up the screen every time she was on it. But I am going on a bit of limb here, with the newcomer in the bunch. Allison Tolman was the heart and soul of Fargo, and while she is subtle, something that usually hurts you in Emmy races, I think that there are enough Fargo fans out there, to recognize how important she was to the series. Plus, I feel like these titans of acting with chewy material (Bassett, Bates, Roberts, Burstyn), could cancel out each others votes. Tolman stands to gain from this split, and I think she wins her first, and well deserved, Emmy Award.
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
2014 Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win - Matt Bomer "The Normal Heart"
Could Win - Joe Mantello "The Normal Heart", Colin Hanks "Fargo", or Martin Freeman "Sherlock: His Last Vow"
Should Win - Matt Bomer "The Normal Heart"
Commentary - There are a lot of big contenders in this race, and yet it already feels like a slam dunk. Joe Mantello, Jim Parsons, and Alfred Molina are all great in The Normal Heart, but they all pale in comparison to one of their co-stars. Colin Hanks was a part of the dynamic duo (along with the fantastic Allison Tolman) that provided Fargo a dose of much needed heart. Martin Freeman could win here as a consolation prize for his two nominated roles in both Sherlock, and his lead role in Fargo. But in the end, I just don't see how voters can watch these nominees work, and not become overwhelmed by Matt Bomer's character in The Normal Heart. His struggle is part of the emotional impact of the film, and he really stretched himself as an actor and proved his talent in a role that may the role that really launches his career into the stratosphere. Even if it doesn't, at least he will have an Emmy on his mantle.
Could Win - Joe Mantello "The Normal Heart", Colin Hanks "Fargo", or Martin Freeman "Sherlock: His Last Vow"
Should Win - Matt Bomer "The Normal Heart"
Commentary - There are a lot of big contenders in this race, and yet it already feels like a slam dunk. Joe Mantello, Jim Parsons, and Alfred Molina are all great in The Normal Heart, but they all pale in comparison to one of their co-stars. Colin Hanks was a part of the dynamic duo (along with the fantastic Allison Tolman) that provided Fargo a dose of much needed heart. Martin Freeman could win here as a consolation prize for his two nominated roles in both Sherlock, and his lead role in Fargo. But in the end, I just don't see how voters can watch these nominees work, and not become overwhelmed by Matt Bomer's character in The Normal Heart. His struggle is part of the emotional impact of the film, and he really stretched himself as an actor and proved his talent in a role that may the role that really launches his career into the stratosphere. Even if it doesn't, at least he will have an Emmy on his mantle.
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
2014 Emmy Predictions: Best Writing in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win - Larry Kramer "The Normal Heart"
Could Win - Noah Hawley "Fargo - The Crocodile's Dilemma"
Should Win - Larry Kramer "The Normal Heart"
Commentary - Once again, there is a battle brewing between the two top program contenders. Which makes me want to ask a random question to myself. Which one would have won, Fargo or The Normal Heart, if there had still been a combined category. Logic tells us The Normal Heart, and a lot of the credit to the success of the film, is Larry Kramer. The play won several Tony Awards, and his work across the theater earned him the prestigious Isabelle Stevenson Award. It is his passionate script, whose authenticity is so evident, as we see a young Larry Kramer struggle as his friends and family are dealing with the spread of AIDS. Fargo and American Horror Story are cleverly written shows with plenty of great material, and if there were any justice in this world then Treme would be a top contender here for its submission. But I think we see Larry Kramer take the stage and win an Emmy award, for helping continue to fight for a noble cause, and for making the transition from stage to screen possible.
Could Win - Noah Hawley "Fargo - The Crocodile's Dilemma"
Should Win - Larry Kramer "The Normal Heart"
Commentary - Once again, there is a battle brewing between the two top program contenders. Which makes me want to ask a random question to myself. Which one would have won, Fargo or The Normal Heart, if there had still been a combined category. Logic tells us The Normal Heart, and a lot of the credit to the success of the film, is Larry Kramer. The play won several Tony Awards, and his work across the theater earned him the prestigious Isabelle Stevenson Award. It is his passionate script, whose authenticity is so evident, as we see a young Larry Kramer struggle as his friends and family are dealing with the spread of AIDS. Fargo and American Horror Story are cleverly written shows with plenty of great material, and if there were any justice in this world then Treme would be a top contender here for its submission. But I think we see Larry Kramer take the stage and win an Emmy award, for helping continue to fight for a noble cause, and for making the transition from stage to screen possible.
Monday, July 28, 2014
2014 Emmy Predictions: Best Directing in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win - Ryan Murphy "The Normal Heart"
Should Win - Colin Bucksey "Fargo - Buridan's Ass" or Alfonso Gomez-Rejon "American Horror Story: Coven - Bitchcraft"
Could Win - Either Fargo episode
Commentary - This race, and its writing counterpart, could be indicative of the night as a whole. I personally think that while Fargo will easily win the Miniseries category, it may have trouble in some of the other categories up against the emotional juggernaut that is The Normal Heart. Don't get me wrong, The Normal Heart was my favorite television movie this year, but I think it pulled off its feat despite Ryan Murphy's unsteady direction. It succeeded because of the passion Larry Kramer put into the script, and the performances of its cast. If I were voting, I think the work of the directors of Fargo (my personal favorite being Buridan's Ass), and Gomez-Rejon's episode of AHS: Coven Bitchcraft are better examples of exemplary directing. But Murphy is well-liked in this industry, the film strikes an emotional chord, and I think that he takes home another directing Emmy.
Should Win - Colin Bucksey "Fargo - Buridan's Ass" or Alfonso Gomez-Rejon "American Horror Story: Coven - Bitchcraft"
Could Win - Either Fargo episode
Commentary - This race, and its writing counterpart, could be indicative of the night as a whole. I personally think that while Fargo will easily win the Miniseries category, it may have trouble in some of the other categories up against the emotional juggernaut that is The Normal Heart. Don't get me wrong, The Normal Heart was my favorite television movie this year, but I think it pulled off its feat despite Ryan Murphy's unsteady direction. It succeeded because of the passion Larry Kramer put into the script, and the performances of its cast. If I were voting, I think the work of the directors of Fargo (my personal favorite being Buridan's Ass), and Gomez-Rejon's episode of AHS: Coven Bitchcraft are better examples of exemplary directing. But Murphy is well-liked in this industry, the film strikes an emotional chord, and I think that he takes home another directing Emmy.
Sunday, July 27, 2014
2014 Emmy Predictions - Best Variety Writing/Directing
Best Directing in a Variety Series
Will Win - Don Roy King "Saturday Night Live - Host: Jimmy Fallon"
Could Win - Any of the other four
Should Win - Jonathan Krisel "Portlandia - Getting Away"
Commentary - This is one of those categories that is hard to tell which way they will go. Colbert, Daily Show, and Jimmy Fallon are the three leading contenders for the top prize, so any one of them could benefit from buzz and popularity. But this category has been dominated recently by Don Roy King. SNL has a bunch of moving parts, and when they all fit together well, then a lot of deserved credit goes to the director. And Doy Roy King is the master of this type of work, has won this category many times before, and has the Jimmy Fallon Christmas episode to showcase his talents. I think he wins again.
Best Writing in a Variety Series
Will Win - The Colbert Report
Could Win - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Should Win - Portlandia
Commentary - This category has bounced back and forth between The Colbert Report and The Daily Show in recent years, so history tells us that it will be one of these two once again. But watch our for Portlandia. It has the kind of creative spark that might appeal to writers. I am sticking with Colbert if for no other reason, than the fact that after last year's big program win, it is hot.
Best Directing in a Variety Special
Will Win/Should Win - Glenn Weiss "The 67th Annual Tony Awards"
Could Win - Gregg Gelfand "The Beatles: The Night That Changed America"
Commentary - I am once again watching out for The Beatles. The program itself wasn't exactly the best in the world, but it has the right nostalgic factor that appeals to Emmy voters. That being said, I am sticking with the perceived front runner going into next month's ceremony. The Tony Awards is still one of the best nights on television each year, and the 67th edition was no exception. The opening number alone is worthy of an Emmy for host Neil Patrick Harris, and for director Glenn Weiss who brilliant captured the madness, the excitement, and all the parts of the piece. Plus he has won this category several times in a row, and he, and the telecasts seem to be favorites among voters.
Best Writing in a Variety Special
Will Win/Should Win - Billy Crystal and Alan Zweibel "Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays"
Could Win - Dave Boone and Paul Greenburg "The 67th Annual Tony Awards" or Ken Ehrlich and David Wild "The Beatles: The Night that Changed America"
Commentary - The big spectacles do well in the directing category, but we have seen this one go to smaller performances and humor-driven specials. This year, one of my favorites was Billy Crystal's 700 Sundays. Not only is Crystal still a great presence and performer on stage, but the show itself, as a whole, was truly something great. A lot of credit goes to Crystal's writing. He deftly balances the funny with the emotional, and keeps his audience glued. I think they go smaller here, and reward the passions project of a beloved five-time Emmy winner.
Will Win - Don Roy King "Saturday Night Live - Host: Jimmy Fallon"
Could Win - Any of the other four
Should Win - Jonathan Krisel "Portlandia - Getting Away"
Commentary - This is one of those categories that is hard to tell which way they will go. Colbert, Daily Show, and Jimmy Fallon are the three leading contenders for the top prize, so any one of them could benefit from buzz and popularity. But this category has been dominated recently by Don Roy King. SNL has a bunch of moving parts, and when they all fit together well, then a lot of deserved credit goes to the director. And Doy Roy King is the master of this type of work, has won this category many times before, and has the Jimmy Fallon Christmas episode to showcase his talents. I think he wins again.
Best Writing in a Variety Series
Will Win - The Colbert Report
Could Win - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Should Win - Portlandia
Commentary - This category has bounced back and forth between The Colbert Report and The Daily Show in recent years, so history tells us that it will be one of these two once again. But watch our for Portlandia. It has the kind of creative spark that might appeal to writers. I am sticking with Colbert if for no other reason, than the fact that after last year's big program win, it is hot.
Best Directing in a Variety Special
Will Win/Should Win - Glenn Weiss "The 67th Annual Tony Awards"
Could Win - Gregg Gelfand "The Beatles: The Night That Changed America"
Commentary - I am once again watching out for The Beatles. The program itself wasn't exactly the best in the world, but it has the right nostalgic factor that appeals to Emmy voters. That being said, I am sticking with the perceived front runner going into next month's ceremony. The Tony Awards is still one of the best nights on television each year, and the 67th edition was no exception. The opening number alone is worthy of an Emmy for host Neil Patrick Harris, and for director Glenn Weiss who brilliant captured the madness, the excitement, and all the parts of the piece. Plus he has won this category several times in a row, and he, and the telecasts seem to be favorites among voters.
Best Writing in a Variety Special
Will Win/Should Win - Billy Crystal and Alan Zweibel "Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays"
Could Win - Dave Boone and Paul Greenburg "The 67th Annual Tony Awards" or Ken Ehrlich and David Wild "The Beatles: The Night that Changed America"
Commentary - The big spectacles do well in the directing category, but we have seen this one go to smaller performances and humor-driven specials. This year, one of my favorites was Billy Crystal's 700 Sundays. Not only is Crystal still a great presence and performer on stage, but the show itself, as a whole, was truly something great. A lot of credit goes to Crystal's writing. He deftly balances the funny with the emotional, and keeps his audience glued. I think they go smaller here, and reward the passions project of a beloved five-time Emmy winner.
Saturday, July 26, 2014
2014 Emmy Predictions: Best Reality Host
Will Win - Tim Gunn and Heidi Klum "Project Runway"
Could Win - Jane Lynch "Hollywood Game Night"
Should Win - Either the PR duo or Lynch
Commentary - This race is actually brewing into an interesting battle between two worthy contenders. The front runners, and my current predictions, are the dynamic duo of Project Runway, Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn. When Klum was submitting just herself, she had not shot in hell of actually winning because she was only on the screen half the time. The other half in the room as the contestants were making the clothes consisted of Tim Gunn. So when they finally decided to submit together, their combined screen times propelled them to victory. I think that this will continue to help them in future races, including this one. Between the two they have a great amount of screen time, and their dynamic (helpful mentor vs. critical bad ass) creates fantastic television. But Jane Lynch is a real threat. I always thought Betty White could win based on her popularity alone, but she never has enough screen time to really merit a win for Off Their Rockers. Jane Lynch is in a similar situation. She is a well-respected, Emmy-award winning actor that is incredibly popular within the industry, and her personal popularity alone will garner a lot of votes. But unlike White, Lynch is the star of her show. She is involved in every aspect of it, she is a riot, and a presence on screen, and she gets to interact with famous celebrities on a weekly basis. I think that Klum and Gunn are still in the lead, but watch out for Lynch.
Could Win - Jane Lynch "Hollywood Game Night"
Should Win - Either the PR duo or Lynch
Commentary - This race is actually brewing into an interesting battle between two worthy contenders. The front runners, and my current predictions, are the dynamic duo of Project Runway, Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn. When Klum was submitting just herself, she had not shot in hell of actually winning because she was only on the screen half the time. The other half in the room as the contestants were making the clothes consisted of Tim Gunn. So when they finally decided to submit together, their combined screen times propelled them to victory. I think that this will continue to help them in future races, including this one. Between the two they have a great amount of screen time, and their dynamic (helpful mentor vs. critical bad ass) creates fantastic television. But Jane Lynch is a real threat. I always thought Betty White could win based on her popularity alone, but she never has enough screen time to really merit a win for Off Their Rockers. Jane Lynch is in a similar situation. She is a well-respected, Emmy-award winning actor that is incredibly popular within the industry, and her personal popularity alone will garner a lot of votes. But unlike White, Lynch is the star of her show. She is involved in every aspect of it, she is a riot, and a presence on screen, and she gets to interact with famous celebrities on a weekly basis. I think that Klum and Gunn are still in the lead, but watch out for Lynch.
Friday, July 25, 2014
2014 Emmy Predictions: Best Variety Series and Special
Best Variety Series
Will Win/Should Win - The Colbert Report
Could Win - The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon or The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Commentary - So what is going to happen this year in this category? After so many years of rewarding The Daily Show, they finally rewarded its worthy counterpart The Colbert Report. Both had great seasons, both are extremely popular, but since they have seemingly moved on to Colbert, I am sticking with the winner most recent on their minds. But if anything is going to upset the Jon Stewart/Stephen Colbert Comedy Central dynasty it is going to be Jimmy Fallon. His successful stint on Late Night ended with a bang, and he took over the legendary Tonight Show with ease, and looks to have a hugely successful run, if ratings and reviews are any indication. This maybe the year they finally go back to the traditional late night routine, but for now I am sticking with the safer, and more likely choice.
Best Variety Special
Will Win - The Kennedy Center Honors
Should Win - Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays
Could Win - The Beatles: The Night that Changed America
Commentary - The Kennedy Center Honors has won this category a record five times in a row, and while there are some top notch projects this year, including Billy Crystal's funny and heartfelt 700 Sundays, the funny tribute to the legendary Mel Brooks, and a tribute to Jimmy Fallon's previous effort. But I think it is going to be hard to beat The Kennedy Centers which is clearly on a roll. Plus, as we know, the voters in these variety categories have no qualms about voting for the same thing over and over again (Daily Show anyone?). But I do think that there is a tough contender lurking in the shadows that could trump the favorite. The Beatles are still one of the most popular bands in the world, and CBS rolled out the carpet for a 50th Anniversary Tribute that started at this year's Grammy Awards and then moved to its own special. I think that it could win over the hearts of Emmy voters, particularly those older voters that remember their rise as it happened five decades ago.
Will Win/Should Win - The Colbert Report
Could Win - The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon or The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Commentary - So what is going to happen this year in this category? After so many years of rewarding The Daily Show, they finally rewarded its worthy counterpart The Colbert Report. Both had great seasons, both are extremely popular, but since they have seemingly moved on to Colbert, I am sticking with the winner most recent on their minds. But if anything is going to upset the Jon Stewart/Stephen Colbert Comedy Central dynasty it is going to be Jimmy Fallon. His successful stint on Late Night ended with a bang, and he took over the legendary Tonight Show with ease, and looks to have a hugely successful run, if ratings and reviews are any indication. This maybe the year they finally go back to the traditional late night routine, but for now I am sticking with the safer, and more likely choice.
Best Variety Special
Will Win - The Kennedy Center Honors
Should Win - Billy Crystal: 700 Sundays
Could Win - The Beatles: The Night that Changed America
Commentary - The Kennedy Center Honors has won this category a record five times in a row, and while there are some top notch projects this year, including Billy Crystal's funny and heartfelt 700 Sundays, the funny tribute to the legendary Mel Brooks, and a tribute to Jimmy Fallon's previous effort. But I think it is going to be hard to beat The Kennedy Centers which is clearly on a roll. Plus, as we know, the voters in these variety categories have no qualms about voting for the same thing over and over again (Daily Show anyone?). But I do think that there is a tough contender lurking in the shadows that could trump the favorite. The Beatles are still one of the most popular bands in the world, and CBS rolled out the carpet for a 50th Anniversary Tribute that started at this year's Grammy Awards and then moved to its own special. I think that it could win over the hearts of Emmy voters, particularly those older voters that remember their rise as it happened five decades ago.
Thursday, July 24, 2014
2014 Emmy Predictions: Best Reality-Competition Series
Will Win - The Voice
Could Win - The Amazing Race or Project Runway
Should Win - Project Runway (well actually RuPaul's Drag Race, but Emmy voters once again screwed that one up).
Commentary - After so many years of The Amazing Race dominating this category, The Voice, the new hot reality show on television, beat it out at last year's ceremony. Of course, Top Chef pulled off that feat once as well, and then voters went right back to Race. Will they do the same thing this time around? I am kind of hoping that as The Amazing Race ages, and shows like The Voice continue to only get stronger that Emmy voters have found a new favorite. Although one to really watch for is Project Runway. After Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn won last year's Host category, I think it brought renewed Emmy attention to one of the better reality programs on television. Honestly, I just think this race needs a shakeup overall. The same six nominees got in again, and even when there have been changes in the category it is usually one or two nominees here and there, and then stagnant for awhile. There are other options out there (what about all the Food Network programs like Iron Chef and Chopped?), and it is time that the Emmys address this stagnation or risk these categories becoming a waste of air time on the telecast. But for now, we are where we are, and while The Amazing Race can never be counted out, I think The Voice will repeat.
Could Win - The Amazing Race or Project Runway
Should Win - Project Runway (well actually RuPaul's Drag Race, but Emmy voters once again screwed that one up).
Commentary - After so many years of The Amazing Race dominating this category, The Voice, the new hot reality show on television, beat it out at last year's ceremony. Of course, Top Chef pulled off that feat once as well, and then voters went right back to Race. Will they do the same thing this time around? I am kind of hoping that as The Amazing Race ages, and shows like The Voice continue to only get stronger that Emmy voters have found a new favorite. Although one to really watch for is Project Runway. After Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn won last year's Host category, I think it brought renewed Emmy attention to one of the better reality programs on television. Honestly, I just think this race needs a shakeup overall. The same six nominees got in again, and even when there have been changes in the category it is usually one or two nominees here and there, and then stagnant for awhile. There are other options out there (what about all the Food Network programs like Iron Chef and Chopped?), and it is time that the Emmys address this stagnation or risk these categories becoming a waste of air time on the telecast. But for now, we are where we are, and while The Amazing Race can never be counted out, I think The Voice will repeat.
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
2014 Emmy Predictions: Best Unstructured and Structured Reality Series
Best Unstructured Reality Series
Will Win - Deadliest Catch
Should Win - Wild Things with Dominic Monaghan
Could Win - Really any of them
Commentary - I have still yet to figure out why they split these categories up. There are now fifteen reality program slots at the Emmys, while other programming continues to only have six. Even if you include long-form television into one category it only has ten versus the fifteen with reality. It also makes it hard to predict, and honestly have these shows are complete crap. But Deadliest Catch has won a bunch of Emmys over the years, and still remains wildly popular despite its age. It has been two years since it won a program category, but it is the only one of the bunch that is truly Emmy tested. In an uncertain category like this one, stick with the old favorite.
Best Structured Reality Series
Will Win - Undercover Boss
Should Win - Diners, Drive-Ins & Dives
Could Win - Shark Tank
Commentary - So this category is a bit easier, although I am once again playing it safe with the new favorite in this category. Although no series has ever won a third in a row for this category, I think if anyone can it is Undercover Boss. Shark Tank is hot on its heels, but it lacks the emotional factor that has made Boss such a hit with viewers and Emmy voters. I have to admit that my pick would be Triple D, simply because I think its a fun show that shows off the culture and cuisine of some of America's tourist destinations. Plus, I have always had an affinity for food programs. But this is most likely a battle between Boss and Shark Tank, and I think Undercover Boss wins again.
Will Win - Deadliest Catch
Should Win - Wild Things with Dominic Monaghan
Could Win - Really any of them
Commentary - I have still yet to figure out why they split these categories up. There are now fifteen reality program slots at the Emmys, while other programming continues to only have six. Even if you include long-form television into one category it only has ten versus the fifteen with reality. It also makes it hard to predict, and honestly have these shows are complete crap. But Deadliest Catch has won a bunch of Emmys over the years, and still remains wildly popular despite its age. It has been two years since it won a program category, but it is the only one of the bunch that is truly Emmy tested. In an uncertain category like this one, stick with the old favorite.
Best Structured Reality Series
Will Win - Undercover Boss
Should Win - Diners, Drive-Ins & Dives
Could Win - Shark Tank
Commentary - So this category is a bit easier, although I am once again playing it safe with the new favorite in this category. Although no series has ever won a third in a row for this category, I think if anyone can it is Undercover Boss. Shark Tank is hot on its heels, but it lacks the emotional factor that has made Boss such a hit with viewers and Emmy voters. I have to admit that my pick would be Triple D, simply because I think its a fun show that shows off the culture and cuisine of some of America's tourist destinations. Plus, I have always had an affinity for food programs. But this is most likely a battle between Boss and Shark Tank, and I think Undercover Boss wins again.
The Oscar Narrative: July Nomination Predictions - Best Picture
July Nomination Predictions
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Men, Women & Children
A Most Violent Year
Trash
Unbroken
Other Contenders - Fury, Mr. Turner, Get On Up, Big Eyes, Annie, Boyhood, Selma, Whiplash, Wild, Theory of Everything, The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Hundred-Foot Journey, Cavalry, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, The Homesman, Map to the Stars, The Fault in Our Stars, The Lego Movie, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Exodus: Gods and Kings, The Gambler, The Judge, Macbeth, Kill the Messenger, A Most Wanted Man, Rosewater, St. Vincent, True Story, Begin Again, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Part I, Obivous Child, Snowpiercer, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Only Lovers Left Alive, Miss Julie, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, Suite Francaise, The Drop, The Search, Magic in the Moonlight
Commentary - So this time I am not breaking my own rule and including Stephen Daldry's Trash in the lineup. Although after seeing the first trailer, I am wondering if it is Academy friendly enough (okay there I go underestimating once again.) But on to the real hard-nosed contenders. A lot of people are high on Fury's chances, so I may end up moving into several categories, but I think of the two major war films being released this year that Unbroken is the one with the most Oscar potential, just based on the source material, and the talent involved. We already know that Foxcatcher is a huge contender, and considering Bennett Miller's first two films managed to get nominations, it stands to reason he, and his films, are popular among Academy voters. David Fincher hit the Oscar circuit well with hits The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Social Network, and slipped a little with The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (which still did well nonetheless). Gone Girl is a baity project, and looks like the perfect balance of prestigious Fincher and dark and twisted Fincher. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu could easily return to this race with the intriguing Birdman which has a stellar cast, and after its first trailer, a lot of positive buzz. Christopher Nolan missed the mark with The Dark Knight. But in the expanded Best Picture race, Inception was nominated. So if Interstellar is well-received, there is actually a place for it in the race. Rob Marshall's first film off the bat won the Best Picture Oscar, and it has been downhill ever since. But every time he releases a new one, we all hope that it is another Chicago. Into the Woods could be his return to form. Jason Reitman hit it big with Juno and Up in the Air, then missed the mark with Young Adult and Labor Day. but Men, Women, & Children looks like it could be the perfect film for Reitman to return to the race. JC Chandor has been flirting with Oscar breakthrough for a few years now, and while others may not agree, I think A Most Violent Year is going to be the one to do it. Paul Thomas Anderson's Inherent Vice is my last prediction. The Master was too much for voters in the top categories (although at least the actors recognized its brilliance), so we may be over-estimating its potential. Beyond these ten (which will probably be nine by year's end), there are a lot of those looking to push their way into the race. Big Eyes has a lot of potential for Tim Burton and Co., but the film is getting mixed buzz at the moment. Get On Up could be this year's The Help, or this year's The Butler. Mr. Turner, The Imitation Game, The Hundred-Foot Journey and Theory of Everything are looking for the British vote to play heavily. Wes Anderson is hoping The Grand Budapest Hotel can go where Moonrise Kingdom failed to. Big blockbusters such as the final Hobbit film, How to Train Your Dragon 2, The Lego Movie, and others are hoping to ride a popular wave. And films such as The Judge, The Homesman, The Gambler, Kill the Messenger, A Most Wanted Man, Exodus, Suite Francaise, and Woody Allen's latest Magic in the Moonlight are all hankering for some spotlight.
Birdman
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Inherent Vice
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Men, Women & Children
A Most Violent Year
Trash
Unbroken
Other Contenders - Fury, Mr. Turner, Get On Up, Big Eyes, Annie, Boyhood, Selma, Whiplash, Wild, Theory of Everything, The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Hundred-Foot Journey, Cavalry, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, The Homesman, Map to the Stars, The Fault in Our Stars, The Lego Movie, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Exodus: Gods and Kings, The Gambler, The Judge, Macbeth, Kill the Messenger, A Most Wanted Man, Rosewater, St. Vincent, True Story, Begin Again, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Part I, Obivous Child, Snowpiercer, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Only Lovers Left Alive, Miss Julie, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, Suite Francaise, The Drop, The Search, Magic in the Moonlight
Commentary - So this time I am not breaking my own rule and including Stephen Daldry's Trash in the lineup. Although after seeing the first trailer, I am wondering if it is Academy friendly enough (okay there I go underestimating once again.) But on to the real hard-nosed contenders. A lot of people are high on Fury's chances, so I may end up moving into several categories, but I think of the two major war films being released this year that Unbroken is the one with the most Oscar potential, just based on the source material, and the talent involved. We already know that Foxcatcher is a huge contender, and considering Bennett Miller's first two films managed to get nominations, it stands to reason he, and his films, are popular among Academy voters. David Fincher hit the Oscar circuit well with hits The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Social Network, and slipped a little with The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (which still did well nonetheless). Gone Girl is a baity project, and looks like the perfect balance of prestigious Fincher and dark and twisted Fincher. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu could easily return to this race with the intriguing Birdman which has a stellar cast, and after its first trailer, a lot of positive buzz. Christopher Nolan missed the mark with The Dark Knight. But in the expanded Best Picture race, Inception was nominated. So if Interstellar is well-received, there is actually a place for it in the race. Rob Marshall's first film off the bat won the Best Picture Oscar, and it has been downhill ever since. But every time he releases a new one, we all hope that it is another Chicago. Into the Woods could be his return to form. Jason Reitman hit it big with Juno and Up in the Air, then missed the mark with Young Adult and Labor Day. but Men, Women, & Children looks like it could be the perfect film for Reitman to return to the race. JC Chandor has been flirting with Oscar breakthrough for a few years now, and while others may not agree, I think A Most Violent Year is going to be the one to do it. Paul Thomas Anderson's Inherent Vice is my last prediction. The Master was too much for voters in the top categories (although at least the actors recognized its brilliance), so we may be over-estimating its potential. Beyond these ten (which will probably be nine by year's end), there are a lot of those looking to push their way into the race. Big Eyes has a lot of potential for Tim Burton and Co., but the film is getting mixed buzz at the moment. Get On Up could be this year's The Help, or this year's The Butler. Mr. Turner, The Imitation Game, The Hundred-Foot Journey and Theory of Everything are looking for the British vote to play heavily. Wes Anderson is hoping The Grand Budapest Hotel can go where Moonrise Kingdom failed to. Big blockbusters such as the final Hobbit film, How to Train Your Dragon 2, The Lego Movie, and others are hoping to ride a popular wave. And films such as The Judge, The Homesman, The Gambler, Kill the Messenger, A Most Wanted Man, Exodus, Suite Francaise, and Woody Allen's latest Magic in the Moonlight are all hankering for some spotlight.
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