Post Telluride/Venice/Toronto Predictions
Jennifer Lawrence "American Hustle"
Margo Martindale "August: Osage County"
Lupita Nyong'o "12 Years a Slave"
Julia Roberts "August: Osage County.
Oprah Winfrey "Lee Daniel's The Butler"
Other Contenders -June Squibb "Nebraska", Octavia Spencer "Fruitvale Station", Catherine Keener "Captain Phillips", Sally Hawkins "Blue Jasmine", Cate Blanchett "The Monuments Men", Cameron Diaz "The Counselor", Emily Watson "The Book Thief", Amy Adams "Her", Viola Davis "Prisoners", Maria Bello "Prisoners", Melissa Leo "Prisoners", Juliette Lewis "August: Osage County", Rooney Mara "Her", Kristen Wiig "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty", Naomie Harris "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom", Zoe Saldana "Out of the Furnace", Alfre Woodard "12 Years a Slave", Sarah Paulson "12 Years a Slave", Jennifer Garner "Dallas Buyers Club"
Commentary - Will Fruitvale Station bounce back? After dead buzz, this unknown is currently putting Octavia Spencer on the outside looking in, and Sally Hawkins has moved up my list as Sony has announced that Sally Hawkins is getting an Oscar push. But once again, she is still looking in from the outer circle. Finally, I think the one to watch out for is June Squibb, who apaprently is just fantastic in Nebraska, and the buzz is building. First on the list is Oprah Winfrey, who is stunning in Lee Daniel's The Butler, and right now is probably the only sure thing in this category. A lot can change between October and January, but I find it hard to believe she will be bumped. One of the biggest names to hit this race is newcomer Lupita Nyong'o who apparently is just stunning in 12 Years a Slave (which also happens to be the Best Picture frontrunner for the moment). Oscar loves to add some newcomers (like say Quvenzhane Wallis last year), and she is definitely the one to watch for. Another performance getting rave reviews is Margo Martindale in August: Osage County. The role in the original play was baity, and a Tony winner, and apparently Martindale is perfect for the part. There are two problems she could face on her road to her first Oscar nomination. First, is potential internal competition from Roberts. The second is the fact that the film as a whole is probably not going to be beloved. But Martindale is now an Emmy-winning star, and if any branch is going to stand up for the film, it is going to be the actors. Speaking of Roberts, now that she has officially moved to supporting in terms of the campaign, her screen-time and also good reviews will probably put her in the mix as well. Once again, internal competition could hurt both of them, but this category has always been open to rewarding more than one actor per film. In the final slot, I am going out of a limb by predicting a performance no one has seen. But coming fresh off of her monstrous 2012 year, ending with an Oscar win for Silver Linings, Jennifer Lawrence is Hollywood's it-girl. Plus she is re-teaming up with David O. Russell, in a film that looks fantastic. If it, and her performance, live up to the hype, I expect the actors to find a slot for her.
"I don't take the movies seriously, and anyone who does is in for a headache." --Bette Davis (Opinions Expressed Are My Own)
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - Trailer
I recently re-watched The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, and while it was definitely too long (something I'm afraid will be the same for the next two films), it was not a bad movie. In fact, there is a lot to like about what Jackson and his team did. I have hope that the final two entries into this trilogy will be successful, and live up to the promise that Jackson started now over a decade ago. Maybe not, but at least he and his team know how to cut fascinating trailers, because this one surely does draw you in:
Monday, September 30, 2013
Frozen Trailer
Speaking of Animated Feature, here is the trailer for Frozen, which I apparently missed. It looks like a lot of fun, but I do wonder if it will hold up in terms of quality. See for yourself below:
The Oscar Narrative: Post Telluride/Venice/Toronto Predictions - Best Animated Feature
Post Telluride/Venice/Toronto Predictions
Despicable Me 2
Ernest and Celestine
Frozen
Monster's University
The Wind Rises
Other Contenders - Epic, The Croods, Free Birds, Turbo, A Letter to Momo, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2, The Snow Queen, Leo the Lion, The Legend of Sarila, and Khumba
Commentary - At the same time that the domestic animated market is having a weak year, the Academy has changes some of the rules within the branch in terms of voting for this award, where they have to see the films, and the percentage of the contenders they have to see. This will probably increase the nominations for popular films, many of whom have been snubbed over the years. So watch out for Frozen (If it is decent enough), and Monsters University to easily make the cut, especially with Disney and Pixar behind them. I also think that one other (or maybe more) big film that may make the cut. The Croods, Epic, and maybe Free Birds are all possibilities, but the summer's biggest box office surprise was Despicable Me 2. While the first one did not make the cut, in this weak animated year, the sequel could overcome the handicap. But even in the expanded voting era we are now in, I think that some of the foreign options will still manage to sway the Animation branch. The first one is from the extremely popular director Hayao Miyazaki, and it is claimed to be his last film. In that case, I don't see how the branch can ignore The Wind Rises. Finally, Ernest and Celestine is apparently just wonderful, and if they are looking for something more subtle, and something of a higher quality than what is being produced by the studios this year, then this would be a safe place to land.
Despicable Me 2
Ernest and Celestine
Frozen
Monster's University
The Wind Rises
Other Contenders - Epic, The Croods, Free Birds, Turbo, A Letter to Momo, Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2, The Snow Queen, Leo the Lion, The Legend of Sarila, and Khumba
Commentary - At the same time that the domestic animated market is having a weak year, the Academy has changes some of the rules within the branch in terms of voting for this award, where they have to see the films, and the percentage of the contenders they have to see. This will probably increase the nominations for popular films, many of whom have been snubbed over the years. So watch out for Frozen (If it is decent enough), and Monsters University to easily make the cut, especially with Disney and Pixar behind them. I also think that one other (or maybe more) big film that may make the cut. The Croods, Epic, and maybe Free Birds are all possibilities, but the summer's biggest box office surprise was Despicable Me 2. While the first one did not make the cut, in this weak animated year, the sequel could overcome the handicap. But even in the expanded voting era we are now in, I think that some of the foreign options will still manage to sway the Animation branch. The first one is from the extremely popular director Hayao Miyazaki, and it is claimed to be his last film. In that case, I don't see how the branch can ignore The Wind Rises. Finally, Ernest and Celestine is apparently just wonderful, and if they are looking for something more subtle, and something of a higher quality than what is being produced by the studios this year, then this would be a safe place to land.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
The Oscar Narrative: Post Telluride/Toronto/Venice Predictions - Techincal Categories
Best Cinematography
Sean Bobbit "12 Years a Slave"
Barry Ackroyd "Captain Phillips"
Emmanuel Lubezki "Gravity"
Roger Deakins "Prisoners"
Anthony Don Mantle "Rush"
Other Contenders - American Hustle, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, The Monuments Men, The Wolf of Wall Street, Inside Llewyn Davis, All is Lost, Saving Mr. Banks, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Nebraska, The Great Gatsby, Frances Ha, Lee Daniel's The Butler, August: Osage County, Pacific Rim, Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Philomena, To the Wonder
Best Costume Design
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
Lee Daniel's The Butler
The Monuments Men
Other Contenders - The Invisible Woman, Saving Mr. Banks, Oz the Great and Powerful, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, The Book Thief, Inside Llewyn Davis, August: Osage County, Philomena, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Thor: The Dark World.
Best Film Editing
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
Other Contenders - The Monuments Men, The Wolf of Wall Street, Saving Mr. Banks, Nebraska, Prisoners, Lee Daniel's The Butler, Blue Jasmine, Inside Llewyn Davis, Prisoners, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, August: Osage County, Before Midnight, All is Lost, Fruitvale Station, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Labor Day, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Makeup and Hair
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lee Daniel's The Butler
Star Trek Into Darkness
Other Contenders - 12 Years a Slave, Rush, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Oz the Great and Powerful, Pacific Rim, The Lone Ranger, American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, August: Osage County, Warm Bodies, Saving Mr. Banks, Philomena, Thor: The Dark World, The Monuments Men
Best Original Score
Hans Zimmer "12 Years a Slave"
John Williams "The Book Thief"
Steven Price "Gravity"
Alexandre Desplat "The Monuments Men"
Thomas Newman "Saving Mr. Banks"
Other Contenders - Hans Zimmer "Rush", Henry Jackman "Rush", Randy Newman "Monsters University", Alexandre Desplat "Philomena", Howard Shore "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug", Mark Orton "Nebraska", Carter Burwell "August: Osage County", Hans Zimmer "Man of Steel", Danny Elfman "Oz The Great and Powerful", Johan Johansson "Prisoners", Rachel Portman "Diana"
Best Production Design
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
The Monuments Men
Oz The Great and Powerful
Other Contenders - Saving Mr. Banks, Gravity, Captain Phillips, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Inside Llewyn Davis, August: Osage County, Lee Daniel's The Butler, The Invisible Woman, Labor Day, Philomena, Pacific Rim, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Diana.
Best Sound Mixing
12 Years a Slave
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
Other Contenders - Pacific Rim, Inside Llewyn Davis, Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, Star Trek Into Darkness, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor, Monsters University, Elysium, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Thor: The Dark World, The Monuments Men, American Hustle, The Great Gatsby
Best Sound Editing
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Pacific Rim
Rush
Other Contenders - Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, Star Trek Into Darkness, 12 Years a Slave, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor, Monsters University, Elysium, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Thor: The Dark World, The Monuments Men, American Hustle, The Great Gatsby
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Pacific Rim
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Star Trek Into Darkness
Other Contenders - Rush, Man of Steel, Iron Man 3, The Great Gatsby, Elysium, Oz the Great and Powerful, Captain Phillips, Thor: The Dark World, The Wolverine, World War Z, Oblivion
Sean Bobbit "12 Years a Slave"
Barry Ackroyd "Captain Phillips"
Emmanuel Lubezki "Gravity"
Roger Deakins "Prisoners"
Anthony Don Mantle "Rush"
Other Contenders - American Hustle, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, The Monuments Men, The Wolf of Wall Street, Inside Llewyn Davis, All is Lost, Saving Mr. Banks, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Nebraska, The Great Gatsby, Frances Ha, Lee Daniel's The Butler, August: Osage County, Pacific Rim, Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Philomena, To the Wonder
Best Costume Design
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
Lee Daniel's The Butler
The Monuments Men
Other Contenders - The Invisible Woman, Saving Mr. Banks, Oz the Great and Powerful, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, The Book Thief, Inside Llewyn Davis, August: Osage County, Philomena, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Thor: The Dark World.
Best Film Editing
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
Other Contenders - The Monuments Men, The Wolf of Wall Street, Saving Mr. Banks, Nebraska, Prisoners, Lee Daniel's The Butler, Blue Jasmine, Inside Llewyn Davis, Prisoners, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, August: Osage County, Before Midnight, All is Lost, Fruitvale Station, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Labor Day, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Makeup and Hair
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lee Daniel's The Butler
Star Trek Into Darkness
Other Contenders - 12 Years a Slave, Rush, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Oz the Great and Powerful, Pacific Rim, The Lone Ranger, American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, August: Osage County, Warm Bodies, Saving Mr. Banks, Philomena, Thor: The Dark World, The Monuments Men
Best Original Score
Hans Zimmer "12 Years a Slave"
John Williams "The Book Thief"
Steven Price "Gravity"
Alexandre Desplat "The Monuments Men"
Thomas Newman "Saving Mr. Banks"
Other Contenders - Hans Zimmer "Rush", Henry Jackman "Rush", Randy Newman "Monsters University", Alexandre Desplat "Philomena", Howard Shore "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug", Mark Orton "Nebraska", Carter Burwell "August: Osage County", Hans Zimmer "Man of Steel", Danny Elfman "Oz The Great and Powerful", Johan Johansson "Prisoners", Rachel Portman "Diana"
Best Production Design
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
The Monuments Men
Oz The Great and Powerful
Other Contenders - Saving Mr. Banks, Gravity, Captain Phillips, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Inside Llewyn Davis, August: Osage County, Lee Daniel's The Butler, The Invisible Woman, Labor Day, Philomena, Pacific Rim, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Diana.
Best Sound Mixing
12 Years a Slave
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
Other Contenders - Pacific Rim, Inside Llewyn Davis, Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, Star Trek Into Darkness, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor, Monsters University, Elysium, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Thor: The Dark World, The Monuments Men, American Hustle, The Great Gatsby
Best Sound Editing
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Pacific Rim
Rush
Other Contenders - Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, Star Trek Into Darkness, 12 Years a Slave, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor, Monsters University, Elysium, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Thor: The Dark World, The Monuments Men, American Hustle, The Great Gatsby
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Pacific Rim
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Star Trek Into Darkness
Other Contenders - Rush, Man of Steel, Iron Man 3, The Great Gatsby, Elysium, Oz the Great and Powerful, Captain Phillips, Thor: The Dark World, The Wolverine, World War Z, Oblivion
Saturday, September 28, 2013
The Oscar Narrative: Post Toronto/Telluride/Venice Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay
Post Telluride/Venice/Toronto Predictions
John Ridley "12 Years a Slave"
Billy Ray "Captain Phillips"
George Clooney and Grant Heslov "The Monuments Men"
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope "Philomena"
Terence Winter "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Other Contenders - Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke "Before Midnight", Tracey Letts "August: Osage County", Jason Reitman "Labor Day", Steve Conrad "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty", Michael Petroni "The Book Thief", Peter Berg "Lone Survivor", Phillippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh and Guillermo del Toro "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
Commentary - Who would have thought that the Adapted Screenplay race would be weaker than the Original one? But this year, I truly think that this is the case. Which probably means that the two frontrunners at this point, will cakewalk to nominations, and to frontrunner status. The first is 12 Years a Slave, which has shot to the top of the heap in terms of Best Picture buzz. Unlike some other overeager Oscar pundits, I am not stupid enough to call the race in September. But I do think that it will be a major contender, and this will be an easy pick for the Writing branch. Another easy pick will probably be Captain Phillips, which is getting pretty good reviews leading up to the NYFF, and in an apparent weak year for this category, this will once again be an easy pick. The last three slots are a bit tricky. Films like Labor Day and August: Osage County kind of hit with a bit of a thud at Toronto, but if they get decent enough reviews, they could easily be in play here. Before Midnight was this year's earliest Oscar contender, and the last script was nominated, so it is one to watch for, especially if some of the bigger projects either bomb or get moved (see below). And then there is The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, which intrigues me, and could be a surprise this year. But I am playing it safe for now. Philomena as already won a screenplay award this year, and the film is generally well-liked. Once again, in a weak year, it is a big contender. The last two slots I am saving for two big question marks The Monuments Men and The Wolf of Wall Street. Clooney insists Monuments Men is not an Oscar movie, and Wolf may not even be finished in time, bumping it to 2014. But I do not discount Oscar royalty, and at this point, until I hear differently, I am sticking with the favorites, sight unseen.
John Ridley "12 Years a Slave"
Billy Ray "Captain Phillips"
George Clooney and Grant Heslov "The Monuments Men"
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope "Philomena"
Terence Winter "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Other Contenders - Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke "Before Midnight", Tracey Letts "August: Osage County", Jason Reitman "Labor Day", Steve Conrad "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty", Michael Petroni "The Book Thief", Peter Berg "Lone Survivor", Phillippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh and Guillermo del Toro "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug"
Commentary - Who would have thought that the Adapted Screenplay race would be weaker than the Original one? But this year, I truly think that this is the case. Which probably means that the two frontrunners at this point, will cakewalk to nominations, and to frontrunner status. The first is 12 Years a Slave, which has shot to the top of the heap in terms of Best Picture buzz. Unlike some other overeager Oscar pundits, I am not stupid enough to call the race in September. But I do think that it will be a major contender, and this will be an easy pick for the Writing branch. Another easy pick will probably be Captain Phillips, which is getting pretty good reviews leading up to the NYFF, and in an apparent weak year for this category, this will once again be an easy pick. The last three slots are a bit tricky. Films like Labor Day and August: Osage County kind of hit with a bit of a thud at Toronto, but if they get decent enough reviews, they could easily be in play here. Before Midnight was this year's earliest Oscar contender, and the last script was nominated, so it is one to watch for, especially if some of the bigger projects either bomb or get moved (see below). And then there is The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, which intrigues me, and could be a surprise this year. But I am playing it safe for now. Philomena as already won a screenplay award this year, and the film is generally well-liked. Once again, in a weak year, it is a big contender. The last two slots I am saving for two big question marks The Monuments Men and The Wolf of Wall Street. Clooney insists Monuments Men is not an Oscar movie, and Wolf may not even be finished in time, bumping it to 2014. But I do not discount Oscar royalty, and at this point, until I hear differently, I am sticking with the favorites, sight unseen.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
The Oscar Narrative: Post Telluride/Toronto/Venice Predictions - Best Original Screenplay
Well, the crazy part of the festival circuit is over, although there are still a few key pieces including NYFF and AFI Fest, but right now, I think we have finally started to fit some of the pieces together for the upcoming Oscar season. First, we take a look at Best Original Screenplay.
Post Telluride/Toronto/Venice Predictions
David O. Russell and Eric Singer "American Hustle"
Woody Allen "Blue Jasmine"
Alfonso Cuaron and Jonas Cuaron "Gravity"
Bob Nelson "Nebraska"
Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith "Saving Mr. Banks"
Other Contenders - Peter Morgan "Rush", Ryan Coogler "Fruitvale Station", Danny Strong "Lee Daniel's The Butler", Craig Borten and Melisa Warmack "Dallas Buyers Club", Joel and Ethan Coen "Inside Llewyn Davis", Nicole Holofcener "Enough Said", Spike Jonze "Her", Jeff Nichols "Mud", Cormac McCarthy "The Counselor", Asghar Farhadi "The Past", Aaron Guzikowski "Prisoners"
Other Contenders - Normally, this category has to fight just to find five decent nominees, but this year, literally ever film mentioned above could legitimately pull into this Oscar race, making this a category to really watch. So first, who is on the outside looking in? First is Rush, which I am officially moving into Best Picture (spoiler alert?). It looks like a slick, well-made thriller that is getting rave reviews for Oscar winning-director Ron Howard, and the entire crew. The technical branches will probably eat it up, and Peter Morgan, another well-known name, could easily make the cut. Because it is more populist, I am holding it off for now. I am also holding off Fruitvale Station, because as so many films have been released, the buzz for the project has died. It needs a revival soon, or it could be out of the race completely. Also peeking in is The Butler, which has used it's "inspired by" montra to sneak into Original. In a normal year, it would make the cut in this category, which usually is not as deep as its Adapted counterpart. But the script had a lot of critics, and this year, there are a lot of big films that the writing branch has to consider, and I don't see The Butler being able to beat some of the stronger scripts. Also looking in at the moment: Inside Llewyn Davis, Dallas Buyers Club, Enough Said, Her, Mud, Prisoners, and The Counselor. So who is in at the moment? So far we know that Woody Allen is back to form with Blue Jasmine, and the writing branch idolizes his work. Nebraska was a bit shaky at Cannes, but after its North American debut on this festival circuit, the buzz is getting louder. While Alexander Payne did not write this particular script, his films have always benefitted the written material, and the apparent personal and heartfelt nature of Nelson's work will be hard to ignore, according to early notices. Gravity may not be a traditional screenplay nominee, but early reviews suggest that it has enough emotion and prestige, as well as incredible deep and human story hidden beneath its special effects to sway Academy writers. With the other two slots, I am taking a risk and picking films that have not been seen yet. The first is Saving Mr. Banks. The trailer was a bit to Disney for me, but apparently, the original script was fantastic on paper. If the film suceeds in capturing enough of the spirit of the original work, it will definitely be a contender. Finally, I am going with David O. Russell. I think he was close to that Adapted Screenplay award last year, and his last two films have been popular with the Academy. I also just think that American Hustle is going to end up being a really excellent film, and a screenplay nod seens inevitable in that case.
Post Telluride/Toronto/Venice Predictions
David O. Russell and Eric Singer "American Hustle"
Woody Allen "Blue Jasmine"
Alfonso Cuaron and Jonas Cuaron "Gravity"
Bob Nelson "Nebraska"
Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith "Saving Mr. Banks"
Other Contenders - Peter Morgan "Rush", Ryan Coogler "Fruitvale Station", Danny Strong "Lee Daniel's The Butler", Craig Borten and Melisa Warmack "Dallas Buyers Club", Joel and Ethan Coen "Inside Llewyn Davis", Nicole Holofcener "Enough Said", Spike Jonze "Her", Jeff Nichols "Mud", Cormac McCarthy "The Counselor", Asghar Farhadi "The Past", Aaron Guzikowski "Prisoners"
Other Contenders - Normally, this category has to fight just to find five decent nominees, but this year, literally ever film mentioned above could legitimately pull into this Oscar race, making this a category to really watch. So first, who is on the outside looking in? First is Rush, which I am officially moving into Best Picture (spoiler alert?). It looks like a slick, well-made thriller that is getting rave reviews for Oscar winning-director Ron Howard, and the entire crew. The technical branches will probably eat it up, and Peter Morgan, another well-known name, could easily make the cut. Because it is more populist, I am holding it off for now. I am also holding off Fruitvale Station, because as so many films have been released, the buzz for the project has died. It needs a revival soon, or it could be out of the race completely. Also peeking in is The Butler, which has used it's "inspired by" montra to sneak into Original. In a normal year, it would make the cut in this category, which usually is not as deep as its Adapted counterpart. But the script had a lot of critics, and this year, there are a lot of big films that the writing branch has to consider, and I don't see The Butler being able to beat some of the stronger scripts. Also looking in at the moment: Inside Llewyn Davis, Dallas Buyers Club, Enough Said, Her, Mud, Prisoners, and The Counselor. So who is in at the moment? So far we know that Woody Allen is back to form with Blue Jasmine, and the writing branch idolizes his work. Nebraska was a bit shaky at Cannes, but after its North American debut on this festival circuit, the buzz is getting louder. While Alexander Payne did not write this particular script, his films have always benefitted the written material, and the apparent personal and heartfelt nature of Nelson's work will be hard to ignore, according to early notices. Gravity may not be a traditional screenplay nominee, but early reviews suggest that it has enough emotion and prestige, as well as incredible deep and human story hidden beneath its special effects to sway Academy writers. With the other two slots, I am taking a risk and picking films that have not been seen yet. The first is Saving Mr. Banks. The trailer was a bit to Disney for me, but apparently, the original script was fantastic on paper. If the film suceeds in capturing enough of the spirit of the original work, it will definitely be a contender. Finally, I am going with David O. Russell. I think he was close to that Adapted Screenplay award last year, and his last two films have been popular with the Academy. I also just think that American Hustle is going to end up being a really excellent film, and a screenplay nod seens inevitable in that case.
Monday, September 23, 2013
2013 Emmys: A Crazy Night
I had the morning off, and I set down to write this post recapping my thoughts on the Emmy Awards, and I simply couldn't. I needed the day to think about last night, the winners, the ceremony, the excitements, and the disappointment. When they started off with Merritt Wever upsetting, the whole dynamic of the night changed. Sure old favorites like Claire Danes, Jim Parsons, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, all three of whom were the frontrunners in their respective categories, crossed the finished line first. But much of the night was spent trying to wrap my mind around some of these huge upset winners. Jeff Daniels was not as much of an upset as people would like to think, if you watched the episodes, you knew he could do it. I just wasn't sure he could out-last the power of Bryan Cranston or Kevin Spacey, or the episode of Damian Lewis. I was thrilled when Anna Gunn won, because it meant that they actually sat down and watched the episodes instead of just checking off Maggie Smith's name for a third year in a row. But there were some real head-scratchers in this race. I love Tony Hale on Veep and Merritt Wever on Nurse Jackie, but those are two characters that are best served over the course of a season, not in an individual episode. I was just surprised that they were able to overcome some of the better submitted episodes of the likes of Jane Krakowski, Ty Burrell, Julie Bowen, or Ed O'Neill. That being said, it was nice to see some of the panels thinking outside of the box. They really stretched when they went for Bobby Cannavale. Once again, if you watched this whole season of Boardwalk Empire, he certaintly was a much needed spark, and his previous wins and nominations show that he is a favorite among the Academy. But once again, I find it hard to believe that panel members thought his episode was better than Dinklage's, Paul's, or Banks, and more importantly Patinkin's. On the TV Movie/Miniseries side, some were surprised by Ellen Burstyn and Laura Linney. Once again, if you had sat down and seen what they submitted, it should not surprise, especially considering how much of Emmy darlings they really are. That being said, when Sarah Paulson lost, I was devastated. It was the one big upset that really upset me, as she was simply astounding on this season of American Horror Story.
The series awards this year went 4 for 5 for me. I was so thrilled to see two new winners in the Variety and Reality categories, especially The Colbert Report. It has been such an amazing show, and it has always been outshined by its predecessor The Daily Show. Last night it won two major awards, while The Daily Show (which I love by the way), went home empty, and all felt right with the world. Behind the Candelabra was a great production, and I'm absolutely sure that no other program was even close to beating it, and the win was deserved. Then came the Comedy and Drama Series. For Drama Series, there are only one thing that pops into my mind: Hell Yes! Breaking Bad is simply brilliant and if finally got the reward it deserved. In terms of Modern Family, let me say this. I like Modern Family, and it is still one of the best comedies on television. But the win felt like a lazy afterthought on the part of the Academy (Kind of like when Mad Men won its fourth). They weren't willing to reward 30 Rock one last time, or daring enough to pick one of the other big nominees like Veep, Big Bang, or Louie. I guess they felt like there was not a clear second choice. I do hope that next year, especially after MF only won two awards this year, that they look in a different direction. Louie and Big Bang are great choices, but I think it may be Veep that could be their next big comedy series. In those we really will have to wait and see.
After all of these upsets, one thing comes to mind. We, as pundits, have no idea what the hell we are doing when it comes to the Emmys. We can get 20 out of 24 at the Oscars, even getting some of the shorts, but when it comes to the Emmys, they are so unpredictable, and for every case where episodes matter, there is a case where they don't. This is because we have no idea who makes up these panels, or what they are thinking. The two panels for the Supporting Comedy categories could have had a lot of Nurse Jackie and Veep fans (and maybe some Arrested Development and New Girl fans as well), tipping the balance to Wever and Hale. Either way, the Emmys have once again sent us into a tailspin, and continue to be unpredictable. And that is why we love them. I do apologize for making such bad predictions (some of them like Fincher or Danes, I should have stuck with), but then again, we all should apologize to each other, because everyone got everything wrong as well.
The ceremony was a mixed bag for me. The bit about hosts in the beginning had its moments, especially Kevin Spacey and Tina/Amy. But overall, by the time they got to the song and dance number in the middle of the show, it fell flat. Neil Patrick Harris is great, and he was flawless at this year's Tonys. But, despite doing a decent job of moving the show along, there seemed to be a lack of spark and enthusiasm that we are used to. Most of the time, it seemed like he really didn't want to be there. Maybe that was just me, but so far this is probably his worst gig at any award's show, despite being better than most. Some of the diversions from the awards, namely the two musical performances and the choreography stuff was just a waste, despite the obvious talent involved. And while it was declared the "saddest Emmys ever", I thought that the tributes (which should have also been extended to Jack Klugman and Larry Hagman, maybe cutting out one of the music numbers to make room), were nice honoring legends (like Jean Stapleton), and those gone to soon (Gandolfini and Monteith). However, the acutal In Memoriam segment was wierd, and they still have yet to find a way to stop or cut out the clapping which is tackless. That being said, the show moved along at such a nice pace, that even the small diversions were not enough to upset the balance. And at least the multitude of awards prevented even more useless filler like we see at the Oscars and the Grammys.
Thank you to all who followed along this summer as The Awards Psychic covered the Emmy awards. I truly appreciate your support and comments, and next year will be another exciting Emmy season. For now we turn our sights to the Big Kahuna, the Oscar race. I will start doing post-Toronto/Venice/Telluride predictions, and this thing will soon kick into high gear. I will also finish out the Top 100 Television Shows Since 2000, and start looking at this year's Grammys. For now though, I think I may go back and rewatch the Emmys one more time, just to take it all in before the afterglow wears off.
The series awards this year went 4 for 5 for me. I was so thrilled to see two new winners in the Variety and Reality categories, especially The Colbert Report. It has been such an amazing show, and it has always been outshined by its predecessor The Daily Show. Last night it won two major awards, while The Daily Show (which I love by the way), went home empty, and all felt right with the world. Behind the Candelabra was a great production, and I'm absolutely sure that no other program was even close to beating it, and the win was deserved. Then came the Comedy and Drama Series. For Drama Series, there are only one thing that pops into my mind: Hell Yes! Breaking Bad is simply brilliant and if finally got the reward it deserved. In terms of Modern Family, let me say this. I like Modern Family, and it is still one of the best comedies on television. But the win felt like a lazy afterthought on the part of the Academy (Kind of like when Mad Men won its fourth). They weren't willing to reward 30 Rock one last time, or daring enough to pick one of the other big nominees like Veep, Big Bang, or Louie. I guess they felt like there was not a clear second choice. I do hope that next year, especially after MF only won two awards this year, that they look in a different direction. Louie and Big Bang are great choices, but I think it may be Veep that could be their next big comedy series. In those we really will have to wait and see.
After all of these upsets, one thing comes to mind. We, as pundits, have no idea what the hell we are doing when it comes to the Emmys. We can get 20 out of 24 at the Oscars, even getting some of the shorts, but when it comes to the Emmys, they are so unpredictable, and for every case where episodes matter, there is a case where they don't. This is because we have no idea who makes up these panels, or what they are thinking. The two panels for the Supporting Comedy categories could have had a lot of Nurse Jackie and Veep fans (and maybe some Arrested Development and New Girl fans as well), tipping the balance to Wever and Hale. Either way, the Emmys have once again sent us into a tailspin, and continue to be unpredictable. And that is why we love them. I do apologize for making such bad predictions (some of them like Fincher or Danes, I should have stuck with), but then again, we all should apologize to each other, because everyone got everything wrong as well.
The ceremony was a mixed bag for me. The bit about hosts in the beginning had its moments, especially Kevin Spacey and Tina/Amy. But overall, by the time they got to the song and dance number in the middle of the show, it fell flat. Neil Patrick Harris is great, and he was flawless at this year's Tonys. But, despite doing a decent job of moving the show along, there seemed to be a lack of spark and enthusiasm that we are used to. Most of the time, it seemed like he really didn't want to be there. Maybe that was just me, but so far this is probably his worst gig at any award's show, despite being better than most. Some of the diversions from the awards, namely the two musical performances and the choreography stuff was just a waste, despite the obvious talent involved. And while it was declared the "saddest Emmys ever", I thought that the tributes (which should have also been extended to Jack Klugman and Larry Hagman, maybe cutting out one of the music numbers to make room), were nice honoring legends (like Jean Stapleton), and those gone to soon (Gandolfini and Monteith). However, the acutal In Memoriam segment was wierd, and they still have yet to find a way to stop or cut out the clapping which is tackless. That being said, the show moved along at such a nice pace, that even the small diversions were not enough to upset the balance. And at least the multitude of awards prevented even more useless filler like we see at the Oscars and the Grammys.
Thank you to all who followed along this summer as The Awards Psychic covered the Emmy awards. I truly appreciate your support and comments, and next year will be another exciting Emmy season. For now we turn our sights to the Big Kahuna, the Oscar race. I will start doing post-Toronto/Venice/Telluride predictions, and this thing will soon kick into high gear. I will also finish out the Top 100 Television Shows Since 2000, and start looking at this year's Grammys. For now though, I think I may go back and rewatch the Emmys one more time, just to take it all in before the afterglow wears off.
Sunday, September 22, 2013
The 65th Annual Primetime Emmy Award Winners
So happy for Breaking Bad, and I will have a full recap of the entire Emmy season tomorrow. Good Night!
Best Drama Series - Breaking Bad
Best Comedy Series - Modern Family
Best TV Movie/Miniseries - Behind the Candelabra
Best Variety Series - The Colbert Report
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Claire Danes "Homeland"
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Jeff Daniels "The Newsroom"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Michael Douglas "Behind the Candelabra"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Laura Linney "The Big C: Hereafter"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - Bobby Cannavale "Boardwalk Empire"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Anna Gunn "Breaking Bad"
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Tony Hale "Veep"
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Merritt Wever "Nurse Jackie"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Mini - James Cromwell "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Mini - Ellen Burstyn "Political Animals"
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Henry Bromell "Homeland - Q&A"
Best Direcing in a Drama Series - David Fincher "House of Cards - Chapter 1"
Best Writing in a Comedy Series - Tina Fey and Tracey Wigfield "30 Rock - Last Lunch"
Best Direcing in a Comedy Series - Gail Mancuso "Modern Family - Arrested"
Best Writing in a TV Movie/Mini - Abi Morgan "The Hour"
Best Directing in a TV Movie/Mini - Steven Soderbergh "Behind the Candelabra"
Best Writing in a Variety Series - The Colbert Report
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Don Roy King "Saturday Night Live - Justin Timberlake"
Best Reality-Competition Program - The Voice
Best Choreography - Derek Hough "Dancing With the Stars"
Best Drama Series - Breaking Bad
Best Comedy Series - Modern Family
Best TV Movie/Miniseries - Behind the Candelabra
Best Variety Series - The Colbert Report
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Claire Danes "Homeland"
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Jeff Daniels "The Newsroom"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Michael Douglas "Behind the Candelabra"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Laura Linney "The Big C: Hereafter"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - Bobby Cannavale "Boardwalk Empire"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Anna Gunn "Breaking Bad"
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Tony Hale "Veep"
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Merritt Wever "Nurse Jackie"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Mini - James Cromwell "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Mini - Ellen Burstyn "Political Animals"
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Henry Bromell "Homeland - Q&A"
Best Direcing in a Drama Series - David Fincher "House of Cards - Chapter 1"
Best Writing in a Comedy Series - Tina Fey and Tracey Wigfield "30 Rock - Last Lunch"
Best Direcing in a Comedy Series - Gail Mancuso "Modern Family - Arrested"
Best Writing in a TV Movie/Mini - Abi Morgan "The Hour"
Best Directing in a TV Movie/Mini - Steven Soderbergh "Behind the Candelabra"
Best Writing in a Variety Series - The Colbert Report
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Don Roy King "Saturday Night Live - Justin Timberlake"
Best Reality-Competition Program - The Voice
Best Choreography - Derek Hough "Dancing With the Stars"
Saturday, September 21, 2013
2013 Emmy Predictions: Final List
So this is it, the final rundown. There is no going back. I know that this year, like every year, I will get a lot of these wrong. But before I feel bad, I need to remember that most people get these wrong, and that is why the Emmys can be so much fun. I have switched back to Lange instead of Moss, and I have made my predictions for Variety Writing and Directings, two categories I missed for some reason along the way. Other than that I am sticking with my initial analysis for each category, because it is not smart to overthink it this late in the game. Tomorrow night join The Awards Psychic for live update winners of the ceremony, and enjoy the show!
Best Drama Series - Breaking Bad
Best Comedy Series - Modern Family
Best TV Movie/Miniseries - Behind the Candelabra
Best Reality-Competition Program - The Amazing Race
Best Variety Series - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Damian Lewis "Homeland"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Vera Farmiga "Bate's Motel"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - Mandy Patinkin "Homeland"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Maggie Smith "Downton Abbey"
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Ed O'Neill "Modern Family"
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Julie Bowen "Modern Family"
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Michael Douglas "Behind the Candelabra"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Jessica Lange "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Peter Mullan "Top of the Lake"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Sarah Paulson "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Michelle MacLaren "Breaking Bad - Gliding All Over"
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Henry Bromell "Homeland - Q&A"
Best Directing in a Comedy Series - Gail Mancuso "Modern Family - Arrested"
Best Writing in a Comedy Series - Tina Fey and Tracey Wigfield "30 Rock - Last Lunch"
Best Direcing in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Steven Soderbergh "Behind the Candelabra"
Best Writing in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Richard LaGravenese "Behind the Candelabra"
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Don Roy King "Saturday Night Live - Justin Timberlake"
Best Writing in a Variety Series - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Best Drama Series - Breaking Bad
Best Comedy Series - Modern Family
Best TV Movie/Miniseries - Behind the Candelabra
Best Reality-Competition Program - The Amazing Race
Best Variety Series - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Damian Lewis "Homeland"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Vera Farmiga "Bate's Motel"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - Mandy Patinkin "Homeland"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Maggie Smith "Downton Abbey"
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Ed O'Neill "Modern Family"
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Julie Bowen "Modern Family"
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Michael Douglas "Behind the Candelabra"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Jessica Lange "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Peter Mullan "Top of the Lake"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Sarah Paulson "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Michelle MacLaren "Breaking Bad - Gliding All Over"
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Henry Bromell "Homeland - Q&A"
Best Directing in a Comedy Series - Gail Mancuso "Modern Family - Arrested"
Best Writing in a Comedy Series - Tina Fey and Tracey Wigfield "30 Rock - Last Lunch"
Best Direcing in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Steven Soderbergh "Behind the Candelabra"
Best Writing in a TV Movie/Miniseries - Richard LaGravenese "Behind the Candelabra"
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Don Roy King "Saturday Night Live - Justin Timberlake"
Best Writing in a Variety Series - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
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