Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Khalid Abdalla "The Crown"
Tadanobu Asano "Shogun"
Billy Crudup "The Morning Show"
Mark Duplass "The Morning Show"
Jon Hamm "The Morning Show"
Takehiro Hira "Shogun"
Nathan Lane "The Gilded Age"
Jonathan Pryce "The Crown"
Other Contenders - Ke Huy Quan "Loki", Jack Lowden "Slow Horses", Salim Daw "The Crown", Benny Safdie "The Curse", Benedict Wong "3 Body Problem", Tokuma Nishioka "Shogun", Jovan Adepo "3 Body Problem", Owen Wilson "Loki", Ed McVey "The Crown",
Commentary - Sticking with a few series to try to game the new system (remember last year when only two shows took 8 slots?). The Crown I think will get Jonathan Pryce and Khalid Abdalla (watch out for Ed McVey and Salim Daw as well). The Morning Show I think will get all three of its major contenders, Hamm, Duplass, and Crudup. Shogun is also set to do well, I think getting Hira and Asano (again watch out for Nishioka if they love it). That leaves one slot, which I am saving for Nathan Lane, a perennial Emmy nominee, and recent (finally!) winner. Watch out for Oscar winner Ke Huy Quan, Jack Lowden (if Slow Horses is bigger than we though), Benny Safdie (if The Curse is bigger than we thought), Owen Wilson, Benedict Wong, and Jovan Adepo.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski "The Gilded Age"
Elizabeth Debicki "The Crown"
Moeka Hoshi "Shogun"
Greta Lee "The Morning Show"
Lesley Manville "The Crown"
Fumi Naikaido "Shogun"
Holland Taylor "The Morning Show"
Other Contenders - Cynthia Nixon "The Gilded Age", Nicole Beharie "The Morning Show", Karen Pittman "The Morning Show", Kristin Scott Thomas "Slow Horses", Audra McDonald "The Gilded Age", Celia Rose Gooding "Star Trek: Strange New Worlds", Yuka Kouri "Shogun", Julianna Margulies "The Morning Show", Nicole Kidman "Special Ops: Lioness"
Commentary - Three shows are set to dominate this race. The Crown (Debicki an Manville), The Morning Show (Lee and Taylor), and Shogun (Hoshi and Naikaido). I am adding in Christine Baranski for The Gilded Age, but fully expect the potential of a surprise for some of that show's other contenders including Nixon and McDonald. The Morning Show could also add more slots in the race with Beharie, Margulies, and Pittman. If Shogun is as big as we think, Kouri could join her co-stars. Finally, watch out for potentials like Kristin Scott Thomas (right on the cusp of a nod), Celia Rose Gooding, and Nicole Kidman.
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Lionel Boyce "The Bear"
Paul W. Downs "Hacks"
Matty Matheson "The Bear"
Ebon Moss-Bachrach "The Bear"
Oliver Platt "The Bear"
Tyler James Williams "Abbott Elementary"
Other Contenders - Paul Rudd "Only Murders in the Building", Chris Perfetti "Abbott Elementary", Carl Clemons-Hopkins "Hacks", J.B. Smoove "Curb Your Enthusiasm", Bowen Yang "Saturday Night Live", Kenan Thompson "Saturday Night Live", Harvey Guillen "What We Do in the Shadows", Giancarlo Esposito "The Gentleman"
Commentary - The Bear is set to dominate this year, as I predict that it will take four slots for Boyce, Matheson, Moss-Bachrach, and Platt. The last two slots, I am saving for favorites for it's biggest competitors Abbott Elementary (Williams), and Hacks (Downs). But Paul Rudd is a big name, Chris Perfetti and Harvey Guillen should be nominated, and previous nominees and winners like Clemons-Hopkins, Smoove, Thompson, Yang, and Esposito are proven favorites.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Lisa Colon-Zayas "The Bear"
Hannah Einbinder "Hacks"
Abby Elliott "The Bear"
Janelle James "Abbott Elementary"
Sheryl Lee Ralph "Abbot Elementary"
Meryl Streep "Only Murders in the Building"
Other Contenders - Lisa Ann Walter "Abbott Elementary", Allison Janney "Palm Royale", Carol Burnett "Palm Royale", Meg Stalter "Hacks", Ego Nwodim "Saturday Night Live", Molly Gordon "The Bear", Paula Pell "Girls5Eva", Laura Dern "Palm Royale"
Commentary - Again, I am concentrating my nominees among a few shows who are top contenders. The Bear should bring Elliott and Colon-Zayas in as Ayo moves to lead (and Molly Gordon is not to be discounted). Abbott Elementary's two should return, James and Ralph (oh please Emmy voters, make room for Walter!). Finally, previous nominee Hannah Einbinder is a strong contender, and no one should ever underestimate the marvelous Meryl Streep. Palm Royale has a bunch of big names like Allison Janney, Carol Burnett, and Laura Dern. Mixed reviews and reception may hurt it, or Emmy voters might like the names on the ballot. Also look out for Meg Stalter, Ego Nwodim, and the great Paula Pell.
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