Matt Bomer "Fellow Travelers"
Richard Gadd "Baby Reindeer"
Jon Hamm "Fargo"
Tom Hollander "Feud: Capote vs. The Swans"
Andrew Scott "Ridley"
Other Contenders - Hoa Xuande "The Sympathizer", Tony Shalhoub "Mr. Monk's Last Case", David Oyelowo "Lawman: Bass Reeves", Austin Butler "Masters of the Air", Michael Douglas "Franklin", Nicholas Galitzine "Mary & George", Taylor Zakhar Perez "Red, White & Royal Blue", Nicholas Galitzine "Red, White, & Royal Blue", Leo Woodall "One Day", Callum Turner "Masters of the Air"
Commentary - An interesting list, and I feel like we are going to be surprised when the five are announced. Like I know Hoa Xuande is a huge threat, especially if The Sympathizer is strong, but you have big names like Tony Shalhoub, Austin Butler, David Oyelowo, and Michael Douglas, who could easily get in on popularity alone. What about the young talents like Taylor Zakhar Perez, Leo Woodall, and Nicholas Galitzine? Are we underestimating them? We won't know until the nominations are revealed, but there have been plenty of Emmy surprises in recent years, so I am casting a wide net of possibilities. I know Richard Gadd and Jon Hamm are in, and the Emmy looks like it might be between them. I also feel good about Andrew Scott, who is a previous nominee, and was great in Ridley. Feud looks like a big contender, but I just didn't feel the same buzz as the first outing. That being said, Tom Hollander is in a good position to take a slot. Finally, I would hate if Matt Bomer missed out, but Fellow Travelers is not as big of a contender across the board as I hoped and he could be vulnerable.
Best Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie
Uzo Aduba "Painkiller"
Jodie Foster "True Detective: Night Country"
Jessica Lange "The Great Lillian Hall"
Brie Larson "Lessons in Chemistry"
Juno Temple "Fargo"
Other Contenders - Sofia Vergara "Griselda", Naomi Watts "Feud: Capote vs. The Swans", Nicole Kidman "Expats", Kate Winslet "The Regime", Julianne Moore "Mary & George", Joey King "We Were the Lucky Ones", Carla Gugino "Fall of the House of Usher", Annette Bening "Apples Never Fall"
Commentary - So I feel pretty good about Brie Larson, Juno Temple, and Jodie Foster, and I feel like the Emmy is a three-way race between them. The last two slots are a real toss up. I am going with the late breaking Jessica Lange. She is a multi-Emmy winner and a beloved veteran. Also, after her surprise SAG nod, I was reminded about how much voters love Uzo Aduba. I think she sneaks in over her rivals. But Sofia Vergara transformed, and big names like Naomi Watts, Kate Winslet (I have a feeling I am dumb for not picking her), Nicole Kidman, Julianne Moore, and Annette Bening could always inspire voters. Also watch out for Joey King and Carla Gugino, both previous nominees.
Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie
Jonathan Bailey "Fellow Travelers"
Finn Bennett "True Detective: Night Country"
Robert Downey Jr. "The Sympathizer"
Tom Goodman-Hill "Baby Reindeer"
John Hawkes "True Detective: Night Country"
Joe Keery "Fargo"
Lewis Pullman "Lessons in Chemistry"
Other Contenders - Sam Spruell "Fargo", Treat Williams "Feud: Capote vs. The Swans", Barry Keoghan "Masters of the Air", Hugh Grant "The Regime", Lamorne Morris "Fargo", Johnny Flynn "Ripley", Noah J. Ricketts "Fellow Travelers", Anthony Boyle "Masters of the Air"
Commentary - Three guys seem solid, Robert Downey Jr. (who could win an Oscar and an Emmy in the same year with this momentum), John Hawkes, and Lewis Pullman. The rest are a toss up. I think the heat behind Baby Reindeer will bring in more actors like Tom Goodman-Hill. If voters watched True Detective, I don't know how they vote for Hawkes and leave Finn Bennett out. Fargo is incredibly popular this year, so I think Joe Keery is in. Finally, I may be just hopefully, but I think the performance and popularity of Jonathan Bailey will net him a nod here for Fellow Travelers. The problem is that recently, the supporting categories are pile ups of popular series. So will Spruell, Morris, or Rickett's take a slot as a sweep? Will other popular series do better than expected, bringing in Williams, Keoghan, Grant, Flynn, and Boyle? We'll find out soon.
Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie
Kathy Bates "The Great Lillian Hall"
Jessica Gunning "Baby Reindeer"
Aja Naomi King "Lessons in Chemistry"
Jennifer Jason Leigh "Fargo"
Nava Mau "Baby Reindeer"
Sandra Oh "The Sympathizer"
Kali Reis "True Detective: Night Country"
Other Contenders - Diane Lane "Feud: Capote vs. The Swans", Lily Gladstone "Under the Bridge", Richa Moorjani "Fargo", Andrea Riseborough "The Regime", Calista Flockhart "Feud: Capote vs. The Swans", Chloe Guidry "Under the Bridge", Archie Panjabi "Under the Bridge", Allison Williams "Fellow Travelers", Demi Moore "Feud: Capote vs. The Swans", Sarah Shahi "Red, White, and Royal Blue"
Commentary - The popularity of their series should guarantee slots for Gunning, King, Leigh, Reius, and Mau. I think the other two slots feel really tight. I am going with Emmy favorites in projects I think could do better than expected, Sandra Oh in The Sympathizer and Kathy Bates in The Great Lillian Hall. But The Swans are coming for the nods (how do you pick? It could hurt them), Lily Gladstone wants to follow up her Emmy nod (and could bring Guidry and Panjabi, an Emmy winner, with her), Richa Moorjani could join Leigh, and watch out for Riseborough, Williams, and Shahi.
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