The Oscar Narrative - Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Andrew Haigh "All of Us Strangers"

Cord Jefferson "American Fiction"

Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Christopher Nolan "Oppenheimer"

Tony McNamara "Poor Things"

Other Contenders - Kelly Fremon Craig "Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.", Jonathan Glazer "The Zone of Interest", Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Dave Callaham "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse", Troy Kennedy Martin "Ferrari", Tran Anh Hung "The Taste of Things"

Commentary - Four films are locked and loaded, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Poor Things. The last slot? I think it could be a surprise. Right now, All of Us Strangers has done really well with critics, but so has Are You There God?. Jonathan Glazer has torn up the critics awards with Director nominations, but the screenplay has been left out at the Globes and Critics Choice. Animation used to do really well in screenplay categories, so maybe Across the Spider-Verse can make the cut. Finally outside contenders include Ferrari and The Taste of Things. 

Best Original Screenplay

Justine Triet and Arthur Harari "Anatomy of a Fall"

Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach "Barbie"

David Hemingson "The Holdovers"

Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik "May December"

Celine Song "Past Lives"

Other Contenders - Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer "Maestro", Alex Convery "Air", Hayao Miyazaki "The Boy and the Heron", Ava DuVernay "Origin", Emerald Fennell "Saltburn", Sean Durkin "The Iron Claw", Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola "Asteroid City"

Commentary - It is going to be brutal to get down to five nominations in this category. I moved Maestro out, because in the early race, it has not made a mark in screenplay. But, I sit here, and think, I am crazy! It is probably going to be a big hit with Oscar voters, and Cooper is beloved. If the guilds come through for the film, I will switch things around. As of now, it sits precariously close at six. Barbie, The Holdovers, and Past Lives have all done well so far, as has Anatomy of a Fall. May December has done really well with critics, but I wonder if that will fizzle as we get to the guilds. However, right now, it has done well enough to stay in the top five. Alex Convery got a Critics Choice nod for Air, which did well at the Globes. It could be a surprise contender this season. Hayao Miyazaki is a sleeper for his last film, Emerald Fennell is a previous winner and the film as its supporters, finally, I think Origin, Asteroid City, and The Iron Claw could still make up for lost time and crash the race.