Best Drama Series
Andor
Better Call Saul
The Crown
House of the Dragon
The Last of Us
Succession
The White Lotus
Yellowjackets
Other Contenders - The Handmaid's Tale, The Mandalorian, Bad Sisters, Yellowstone, The Old Man, The Boys, The Diplomat
Commentary - Six feel pretty safe. Better Call Saul, The Crown, and Succession are favorites for many seasons, and I don't see why that love would suddenly change. The Last of Us and House of the Dragon were such massive hits, and have the HBO Emmy machine behind them. Finally, The White Lotus seems poised to make the jump to Drama an easy landing. Part of me wants to lean in to two old favorites, The Handmaid's Tale and The Mandalorian. I really hope that Emmy voters are not that lazy, and instead go for Star Wars' new and better property Andor, and the fantastic second season of Yellowjackets. They could also embrace Bad Sisters, Yellowstone, The Old Man, The Boys, or Netflix's The Diplomat.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Paddy Considine "House of the Dragon"
Brian Cox "Succession"
Kieran Culkin "Succession"
Bob Odenkirk "Better Call Saul"
Pedro Pascal "The Last of Us"
Jeremy Strong "The Last of Us"
Other Contenders - Jeff Bridges "The Old Man", Diego Luna "Andor", Harrison Ford "1923", Kevin Costner "Yellowstone", Matthew Rhys "Perry Mason"
Commentary - I feel like five slots are good to go. The three Succession guys look to dominate, and Bob Odenkirk might finally win an Emmy for Better Call Saul. I also think that after all these years of missing out for The Mandalorian, that he will finally get in for The Last of Us. I am conflicted with this final slot. A lot of folks are banking on the names of Jeff Bridges and Harrison Ford. I am just not sold, especially when there are Best Drama Series contenders sitting there. When Game of Thrones was at its peak, it was a huge hit among the actors, and the Star Wars properties have never been huge with that voting bloc. I am going with Paddy Considine over Diego Luna, with Bridges, Ford, Rhys, and Costner as potential spoilers.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Emma D'Arcy "House of the Dragon"
Sharon Horgan "Bad Sisters"
Melanie Lynskey "Yellowjackets"
Bella Ramsey "The Last of Us"
Sarah Snook "Succession"
Imelda Staunton "The Crown"
Other Contenders - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale", Helen Mirren "1923", Keri Russell "The Diplomat", Juliette Lewis "Yellowjackets", Kelly Reilly "Yellowstone"
Commentary - This race feels more influx than its Actor counterpart. Sarah Snook's jump to lead may end up being the best move she can make. She feels like the current leader. I also feel like Melanie Lynskey is locked and could challenge Snook for the win. Bella Ramsey should ride The Last of Us Wave, and Imelda Staunton, despite a muted reaction should continue the streak of The Queens dominating this category. The last two slots are way up in the air. Elisabeth Moss is probably getting a slot, but I am hoping that voters move on to other deserving contenders. Helen Mirren is a classic Emmy favorite, so don't be surprised if she is announced. But I am going with Emma D'Arcy (same reasoning as Considine about), and Sharon Horgan, who I feel like is a real sleeper, as is her show. Also watch out for Kelly Reilly, Keri Russell, Juliette Lewis.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
F. Murray Abraham "The White Lotus"
Nicholas Braun "Succession"
Giancarlo Esposito "Better Call Saul"
Matthew Macfadyen "Succession"
Jonathan Pryce "The Crown"
Alan Ruck "Succession"
Alexander Skarsgard "Succession"
Matt Smith "House of the Dragon"
Other Contenders - John Lithgow "Perry Mason", Jonathan Banks "Better Call Saul", Will Sharpe "The White Lotus", Theo James "The White Lotus", Elijah Wood "Yellowjackets", Adam DiMarco "The White Lotus", Michael Imperioli "The White Lotus"
Commentary - The White Lotus may have dominated in the Limited Series categories, but expect it to not do as well up against the Drama favorites. For example, I still think Succession is going to dominate this with four slots, this year adding in Ruck for Culkin and Skarsgard, a previous winner. Giancarlo Esposito also feels solid. I would also not bet against recent favorite Matt Smith for House of the Dragon. I do think that, if recent news hasn't dissuaded voters, F. Murray Abraham will get a slot for The White Lotus. In the last slot, I am going with Jonathan Pryce. He is a legend, and I just don't think voters are ready to give up on The Crown. John Lithgow and Johnathan Banks are previous nominees/winners, and Elijah Wood has a great role in Yellowjackets. Also, there is a huge possibility that The White Lotus surprises me again, so don't discount Sharpe, James, DiMarco, or Imperioli.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Coolidge "The White Lotus"
Meghann Fagy "The White Lotus"
Elizabeth Debicki "The Crown"
Lesley Manville "The Crown"
Aubrey Plaza "The White Lotus"
Christina Ricci "Yellowjackets"
Rhea Seehorn "Better Call Saul"
J. Smith-Cameron "Succession"
Other Contenders - Carol Burnett "Better Call Saul", Justine Lupe "Succession", Olivia Cooke "House of the Dragon", Milly Alcock "House of the Dragon", Ann Dowd "The Handmaid's Tale", Yvonne Strahovski "The Handmaid's Tale", Haley Lu Richardson "The White Lotus", Anne-Marie Duff "Bad Sisters"
Commentary - Without all the Succession competition, I think The White Lotus will fare better here. Obviously Jennifer Coolidge is in, but I also think Aubrey Plaza and Meghann Fagy will join her. Of course J. Smith-Cameron, Rhea Seehorn, and Christina Ricci are strong contenders after their nominations last year. I think they repeat. In the last two slots, I am going with the two Crown actresses. Both are big names, both are the two best things of an otherwise lacking season, and I think voters will still want to reward the show. But that leaves Carol Burnett out, who has missed out in Guest for this show before. I would also watch out for the other White Lotus actors, The Handmaid's Tale actresses who were previous nominees/winners, and the contenders from House of the Dragon.
Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Murray Bartlett "The Last of Us"
Bryan Cranston "Better Call Saul"
James Cromwell "Succession"
Arian Moayed "Succession"
Nick Offerman "The Last of Us"
Aaron Paul "Better Call Sual"
Other Contenders - Andy Serkis "Andor", Giancarlo Esposito "The Mandalorian", Jon Gries "The White Lotus", Justin Kirk "Succession", Gabriel Luna "The Last of Us", Lamar Jackson "The Last of Us", Michael McKean "Better Call Saul"
Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Hiam Abbass "Succession"
Hope Davis "Succession"
Cherry Jones "Succession"
Melanie Lynskey "The Last of Us"
Anna Torv "The Last of Us"
Hariett Walter "Succession"
Other Contenders - Fiona Shaw "Andor", Betsy Brandt "Better Call Saul", Claire Foy "The Crown", Vanessa Kirby "The Crown", Storm Reid "The Last of Us", Nico Parker "The Last of Us", Carrie Preston "The Good Wife"
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