Best Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary
Barry
The Bear
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Only Murders in the Building
Poker Face
Ted Lasso
Wednesday
Other Contenders - What We Do in the Shadows, Shrinking, The Great, Atlanta, Somebody Somewhere, Dead to Me, Reservation Dogs, The Other Two, Jury Duty, Ghosts
Commentary - Six slots seem safe: Abbott, Barry, The Bear, Only Murders, Maisel, and Ted Lasso. The last two slots could be a combination of many different series. I am banking on the immense popularity and good showing in the winter precursors for Wednesday to carry over to the Emmys. It even managed a BAFTA nod for best foreign series, which is a coup. In the last slot, I had What We Do in the Shadows, as it continues to surprise with nominations. But I think this season was a big drop for them, and I think Peacock has done a great campaign for Poker Face. Peacock has yet to have a major breakthrough, and it may still be waiting after Tuesday. But I think Poker Face is their ticket into the Emmy race. Beyond those nine watch out for previous nominees Dead to Me and Atlanta, The Great (whose Emmy profile has been building in recent years), Apple's latest Shrinking (which is a major threat), Jury Duty, and some of my personal favorites, Somebody Somewhere, The Other Two, Reservation Dogs, and Ghosts.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Bill Hader "Barry"
Steve Martin "Only Murders in the Building"
Martin Short "Only Murders in the Building"
Jason Sudeikis "Ted Lasso"
Jeremy Allen White "The Bear"
Other Contenders - Nicholas Hoult "The Great", Donald Glover "Atlanta", Jason Segal "Shrinking", Bob Odenkirk "Lucky Hank"
Commentary - With only five slots, it seems kind of easy to predict this year's nominees. Hader, Short, Martin, and Sudeikis should all return, and The Bear is so popular that Jeremy Allen White feels like a lock. Watch out though for previous nominees Hoult and Glover, Jason Segal is Shrinking breaks through, and Bob Odenkirk.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Christina Applegate "Dead to Me"
Rachel Brosnahan "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
Quinta Brunson "Abbott Elementary"
Natasha Lyonne "Poker Face"
Jenna Ortega "Wednesday"
Other Contenders - Elle Fanning "The Great", Selena Gomez "Only Murders in the Building", Bridget Everett "Somebody Somewhere",
Commentary - Unlike the guys, this category could easily have some fluctuation. I feel safe about Quinta Brunson and Rachel Brosnahan, and I am now feeling more secure about Christina Applegate. She is an Emmy favorite. The last two slots feel like they are in flux. They could return to Elle Fanning, or finally give Selena Gomez and Bridget Everett some love. But I am banking on two new favorites. Natasha Lyonne is a previous nominee in this category for Russian Doll, and I think Poker Face is going to breakthrough. Similar logic can be used for Jenna Ortega. If we are predicting Wednesday, then probably we should predict Globe winner and SAG nominee Ortega to benefit from the show's coattails.
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Carrigan "Barry"
Brett Goldstein "Ted Lasso"
Ebon Moss-Bachrach "The Bear"
Nick Mohammad "Ted Lasso"
Tony Shalhoub "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
Tyler James Williams "Abbott Elementary"
Henry Winkler "Barry"
Other Contenders - Bowen Yang "Saturday Night Live", Harrison Ford "Shrinking", Phil Dunster "Ted Lasso", Chris Perfetti "Abbott Elementary", Brian Tyree Henry "Atlanta", Kenan Thompson "Saturday Night Live", Brendan Hunt "Ted Lasso", Jeremy Swift "Ted Lasso", Toheeb Jimoh "Ted Lasso",
Commentary - These supporting categories have become unruly crapshoots at this point, with predictions almost always off the mark. I feel relatively safe about Carrigan, Goldstein, Shalhoub, Williams, and Winkler, leaving two slots that could be occupied by up to twelve contenders. I am going with Ebon Moss-Bachrach to ride the love of The Bear. I also think that Ted Lasso will get at least one more slot. Most folks think that Phil Dunster is getting in (as he should), but voters are known to repeat. I think he gets beaten out by Nick Mohammad, who, along with Goldstein, has made the cut for both of the first two seasons. A lot of people have Harrison Ford making it for Shrinking. The show could breakthrough and he is Harrison Ford. But I feel like his name recognition is winning out in predictions, and I'm just not sold on it. Bowen Yang could also get back in for SNL, which almost always does well with these voters. Previous nominees including the other Ted Lasso guys, Brian Tyree Henry, and Kenan Thompson should not be forgotten, neither should Chris Perfetti, who I am really hoping sneaks in.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
Ayo Edebiri "The Bear"
Janelle James "Abbott Elementary"
Sheryl Lee Ralph "Abbott Elementary"
Juno Temple "Ted Lasso"
Hannah Waddingham "Ted Lasso"
Lisa Ann Walter "Abbott Elementary"
Other Contenders - Jessica Williams "Shrinking", Cecily Strong "Saturday Night Live", Sarah Goldberg "Barry", Molly Shannon "The Other Two", Zazie Beetz "Atlanta"
Commentary - This one feels less hectic, but that concerns me. Sometimes a seemingly quiet category can cause chaos. I feel pretty good about the return of Borstein, James, Ralph, Temple and Waddingham, which leaves two slots. The Bear's Ayo Edebiri feels strong, as the show is strong. In the last slot I could return Cecily Strong for her final season on SNL or Sarah Goldbeg and Zazie Beetz, both of whom made this category at one point, but dropped out. If Shrinking is strong, watch out for Jessica Williams, and Molly Shannon is a veteran favorite. But I am going with the great Lisa Ann Walter, who I think has more than earned the right to stand next to her two Abbott Elementary co-stars.
Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Luke Kirby "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
Nathan Lane "Only Murders in the Building"
Steven Martin and Martin Short "Saturday Night Live"
Pedro Pascal "Saturday Night Live"
Oliver Platt "The Bear"
Sam Richardson "Ted Lasso"
Other Contenders - Leslie Odom Jr. "Abbott Elementary", Jon Bernthal "The Bear", Dave Chappelle "Saturday Night Live", Adrien Brody "Poker Face", Lil Rel Howery "Poker Face", Hank Azaria "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel", Austin Butler "Saturday Night Live", Michael B. Jordan "Saturday Night Live"
Commentary - Let's start by saying this: No one knows who is getting nominated in these Guest categories. It is always a mystery, and there are at least three surprises in each category. With that being said, here I go trying to predict them. Last year's winner Nathan Lane should return, and SNL always takes a slot or two. This year, I think two slots go to Martin/Short and Pascal. Luke Kirby should return for Maisel, although his exclusion from an Emmy nod last year is concerning. Sam Richardson got in last year for Ted Lasso, and they love repeats. Finally, I am predicting Oliver Platt, a veteran with four Emmy nominations, will surprise. But watch out for Odom, Bernthal, Chappelle, Brody, Howery, perennial favorite Azaria, Butler, and Jordan.
Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Quinta Brunson "Saturday Night Live"
Taraji P. Henson "Abbott Elementary"
Cherry Jones "Poker Face"
Shirley MacLaine "Only Murders in the Building"
Sarah Niles "Ted Lasso",
Harriet Walter "Ted Lasso"
Other Contenders - Judith Light "Poker Face", Ayo Edebiri "Abbott Elementary", Becky Ann Baker "Ted Lasso", Jane Lynch "Only Murders in the Building", Hong Chau "Poker Face", Molly Shannon "Saturday Night Live", Aubrey Plaza "Saturday Night Live", Jenna Ortega "Saturday Night Live", Tina Fey "Only Murders in the Building", Catherine Zeta-Jones "Wednesday", Stephanie Hsu "Poker Face", Keke Palmer "Saturday Night Live", Chloe Sevigny "Poker Face"
Commentary - Again, SNL always gets a slot, and Quinta Brunson is a new Emmy favorite. Taraji P. Henson, a previous nominee, should get in for her scene-stealing turn in Abbott. Cherry Jones always gets nominations, and has kind of been dominate in these guest categories in the last decade plus. Sarah Niles was nominated in Supporting last year, and could return in Guest this year. Harriet Walter, I think will be a double nominee in two huge contenders this year, this time for Ted Lasso. Finally, I am banking on the legend that is Shirley MacLaine. But I am worried about Jane Lynch. Even though her presence was less this season, she is Jane Lynch. Ayo Edebiri, Jenna Ortega, and Aubrey Plaza could double dip, something that often happens. Finally watch out for Light, Baker, Chau, Shannon, Fey, Zeta-Jones, Hsu, Palmer, and Sevigny.
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